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NFL Football DFS Advice

Thursday NFL DFS Showdown Advice (JAX @ CIN) for September 30, 2021

Trevor Lawrence
JACKSONVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 26: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks for a receiver during the game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Jaguars on September 26, 2021 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

The 2020 and 2021 number one picks will go head to head tonight as Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars take on Joe Burrow at home in Cincinnati. We have an over/under of 45 with the Bengals laying out 7.5 points. Vegas has not much faith in Jacksonville’s defense and Trevor’s ability to not commit turnovers. The big spread suggests Jacksonville will be trailing for the most part and will have to throw most of the game. 

Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon would fit this game script if Cincinnati were to take a double digit lead, so he is definitely in play tonight. Mixon has carried the ball 67 times for 286 yards and a touchdown so far this season. Expect Lawrence to put up some decent numbers too, considering the outlier of this game. Although he may throw another interception, he could still get to 300 yards with a couple touchdowns.

Here is a look at a Thursday Showdown Core for September 30, 2021 (using DraftKings Values)

FlexJ. Mixon$11,000
FlexT. Lawrence$10,400

Joe Burrow has not had to air it out too much this season because of the commanding leads the Bengals have had so far, but when he does, he’s been lighting it up with former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase. They have regained their chemistry in the NFL with the duo combining for four touchdown catches. Stacking Chase with Burrow would be a safe start to build your lineup. 

Here is a look at a Thursday Showdown Core for September 30, 2021

(using FanDuel Values)

FlexJ. Burrow$15,000
FlexJ. Chase$12,500

Here’s What You Get If You Sign Up For $199 Per Year

  • Who we like in the Captain/MVP slot
  • Who to Fade
  • Other studs we like
  • Value to roster at Flex
  • General Strategy


Tyler Boyd ($11,100 DK/$10,000 FD) By Tee Higgins sitting out with a shoulder injury, Boyd will receive more of an opportunity share, at a discount to Ja’Marr Chase.Boyd’s salary at Captain/MVP will allow you to fit more studs in your lineup and still have the upside to produce. 

Who to Fade:

Jaguars DST ($3,000 DK) Cincinnati will put up some points tonight, even though they have had some big plays on special teams with Jamal Agnew for the past two weeks, we just can’t trust them to consistently run back a field goal try or have another pick six. 

Other Studs We Like:

James Robinson ($9,400 DK/$/$12,000 FD) Has finally emerged and was used properly last week against the Cardinals putting up 25 FPTS in PPR. He got in the end zone as well as catching six passes out of the backfield for 46 yards. Cincinnati’s run defense is not the greatest, so expect him to get plenty of touches. Laviska Shenault J.R. ($6,600 DK/$8,500 FD) Lines up in the slot and the Bengals are very generous at that position. So far this season they have given up over 700 yards in the air to wide receivers. 

Marvin Jones J.R. ($8,600 DK/$11,500 FD) Is the clear favorite option to throw to of  Lawrence. He’s recorded 28 targets with 17 catches for 194 yards and two touchdowns. 

Value at Flex:

Carlos Hyde ($1,800 FD/$8,000 FD) will fill in for Robinson when he needs a breather, and his price is dirt cheap. He is fully capable of catching a few passes in the backfield or even vulturing a touchdown from Robinson in the redzone. 

Auden Tate ($400 DK/$6,000 FD) with Tee Higgins  already ruled out with a  shoulder injury, Tate is next up to see some opportunity, especially if most of the defensive pressure focuses on Boyd and Chase. 

General Strategy:

The stars have aligned for Joe Burrow. He made prime time television, playing against his former coach Urban Meyer who benched him at Ohio State, and the quarterback he defeated in the  the NCAA Championship. This game will be all about  Joe tonight, so pairing him with a receiver would be ideal.  Jacksonville also will need to throw the ball a lot, so draft receivers primarily on that side. 

Now go and win with your lineup and let us know how you did.

Tweet us @FantasyDFSX is a good place for that. 

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