To cap off a wild Week 13, we have an AFC East battle for first place as the Pats are in Buffalo tonight. Both teams have had a solid defense that has shut out opponents during the season. The weather in Buffalo tonight will be cold and windy too, so we don’t anticipate much scoring tonight.
Josh Allen will need to use his legs to move the ball, as the Pats rank second in the league against the pass, Buffalo being the first ranked pass defense. Mac Jones has not been known for his agility, but the rookie has been a superb game manager running the Belichick and McDaniel playbook in New England.
Here’s a look at an NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Core (NE @ BUF) (using DraftKings Values)
| Captain | ||
| Flex | J. Allen | $11,200 |
| Flex | ||
| Flex | M. Jones | $10,000 |
| Flex | ||
| Flex |
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- Who we like in the Captain/MVP slot
- Who to Fade
- Other studs we like
- Value to roster at Flex
- General Strategy
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Captain/MVP:
Josh Allen ($16,800 DK/$17,500 FD) Will have to the Bills on his back in order to beat this tough New England defense. Allen will need to run it, as he is absolutely capable of, since the Pats will be very tough to throw on. He is the most expensive Captain/MVP, but we will be able to afford him since there may not be much offense tonight and will be fading most of the receivers on the slate.
Who to Fade:
Stefon Diggs ($10,600 DK/$14,000 FD) The one thing the Patriots and Bill Belichick are famous for besides winning Super Bowls, is taking away the opposing quarterback’s favorite weapon on offense, which would make that Diggs. The Pats are also the top-ranked defense against opposing tight ends, so beware of Knox who may see a lot of coverage.
New England Running Backs: Remember Bill Belichick hates your fantasy lineups. The Pats can roll three to four different healthy running backs out in a single game, and you will never know on any given day who will eat. We’re not saying not to roster one, they’re just tough to pinpoint on who will be viable.
Other Studs We Like:
Kendrick Bourne ($8,600 DK/$11,000 FD) is New England’s big-play receiver may see more volume tonight to move the ball. With top corner Tre’Davious White out for the year, Bourne could see some extra volume tonight.
Cole Beasley ($11,700 DK/$10,000 FD) Buffalo’s slot receiver may also see the same uptick in targets because of the windy night, and if the Pats blitz a lot on top of it Josh Allen will need to get rid of the ball quick.
Matt Breida ($6,600 FK/$7,500 FD) Quarterback Josh Allen may check it down a lot, which has helped the offense recently. Breida has lit a fire under the lame running game recently of Buffalo, which will be needed against a very tough pass defense.
Dawson Knox ($5,400 DK/$10,500 FD) Josh Allen favors to throw to his tight end, and Knox has been a big red zone favorite. Knox has seven touchdowns this year for the Patriots.
Value Plays:
Buffalo DST (DK only) ($3,800) With a total of 41 points and bad weather on the horizon, we should look at defense as a strategy. It’s not fun, but we have to change gears sometimes in DFS.
New England DST (DK only) ($4,000) see above…
Tyler Bass ($4,400 DK/$8,500 FD) Buffalo may have a tough time getting in the end zone, so it could fall on the kickers tonight. And that all depends on which way the wind is blowing too. Nick Folk ($4,200 DK/$8,500 FD) on the other side is also a good play.
Jonnu Smith ($2,400 DK/$6,500) New England’s other tight end, who Mac Jones will look to hit when Henry is not involved in the scheme. He has incredible speed for his size and can see four to five targets a game.
General Strategy:
Two of the top defenses in the NFL will be playing outdoors where winds will be 30 – 40 mph. Not much scoring to look forward to tonight really, interceptions are more than likely if either team decides on a deep throw and field goals may sail wide if further than 30 yards. Running backs, defenses, kickers, and receivers of short passes (tight ends and slot receivers) are all in play tonight, so if you find yourself with a lot of salary leftover, you’re on the right track.
