We have game three of the Eastern conference finals tonight, as the Atlanta Hawks host the Milwaukee Bucks for game three. After a disappointing loss to the Hawks in game one, the Bucks absolutely dropped the Hammer in game two, leading to a 34-point blowout. For DFS, pretty much everyone was subpar last time out, as we saw guys who usually play 40 minutes play under 30. We expect the Hawks to show a lot more life tonight then we saw last time out and this one likely stays a lot closer. This is not the easiest slate to tackle for DFS, as it is hard to differentiate between the studs and there is no great value.
Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 6/27/21 (using DraftKings Values)
We have been getting to Giannis Antetokounmpo a lot as our core captain pick. Antetokounmpo is the clear call for Cash games as he is the only player on this slate with a great floor. Antetokounmpo is in a league of his own on this slate regarding DFS production, and the price never quite makes up for the production difference with captaining superstars. If you are playing big GPP’s tonight, we like captaining Antetokounmpo, but we would be happy getting away from him as well. Captaining any of the other studs tonight allows us to take less low ceiling guys at the bottom of the slate. Trae Young is also a solid captain option here as he has similar upside to Antetokounmpo for significantly cheaper.
There is a pattern emerging for these showdown slates, where we have a lot of studs we want to roster without the value options to pay for them. As a result, we have had to take some risky punts to pay up, and that will be the case today. Due to the lack of value on tonight’s slate, we are all over the very risky Lou Williams. All the plays under $3,000 tonight have extremely low floors, at least Williams comes with a high ceiling to match. We have seen Willaims smash for value on nights when he gets a little extra opportunity this playoffs, and he is also a guy who can smash value here in only ten minutes. Williams only costs us $1,800 tonight, and that salary allows us to get to three studs without taking to much risk elsewhere. We know Williams has a low floor, but thanks to his price even five or six FPTS from Sweet Lou may not sink us here.
Trae Young has showed no middle ground this series, as he exploded for over 75 FPTS in game one but struggled with only 22 FPTS last game. Everyone on the Hawks struggled last night, as the Bucks were determined to even up the series. If the Hawks are going to show any life on the rebound tonight, we will see a much more productive night from Young. Young did get $600 cheaper then last slate after the bad game, so we really like getting to him over the cheaper Milwaukee stars. We really want to try and fit Young and Antetokounmpo together tonight, as we will likely need them both if this stays close.
Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 6/27/21 (using FanDuel Values)
Pat Connaughton has been priced up significantly over on DraftKings for tonight’s game, however he is our favorite option for value over on FanDuel. He is the exact same price as Williams at $7,500 on FD here, and he has a much higher floor. Connaughton has been consistently playing over 20 minutes except for last games blowout. We expect him to see solid run tonight, which sets him apart from anyone else at this price.
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Khris Middleton – ($10,000 DK) If you have read our past two articles, it is pretty much the same story with Khris Middleton. We expect him to play a lot of minutes and heave up a ton of shots. We do not love Middleton as it feels like he is priced for his ceiling at $10,000 to some degree. Furthermore, he does have a low floor as he is very scoring dependent and puts out poor shooting nights consistently. With that said, if you are playing multiple lineups tonight we recommend getting some exposure to Middleton. As he is one of the only three or four stars on this slate.
Jrue Holiday – ($9,600 DK) We prefer Holiday to Middleton tonight which means he is going to be in a lot of our lineups. Holiday is $400 cheaper than Middleton and we expect their production to be around the same. Holiday has a great matchup in this series as the Hawks backcourt is weak defensively. We expect him to play a ton of minutes due to his ability to defend Young, and he has been taking a lot of usage. Holiday has great upside as we saw him go for over 61 FPTS in game one.
Clint Capela – ($8,200 DK) Capela was very disappointing in last games blowout loss. He only played 24.4 minutes and finished with 11 FPTS. We expect Capela to be far more productive tonight, and we love how much cheaper he is then some other guys on the slate. Capela averaged 38.4 FPTS on the season, which is in the same range as guys like Middleton and Holiday. He in a completely different price range to those guys, so his upside is a lot more enticing.
The approach we are going to take for Cash games tonight is captain Antetokounmpo, roster Young and try to fit in some cheap plays who we know will play solid run. There are a lot more directions to go for tournaments here, as you can get a lot of upside from a cheaper captain. We will be using a lot of Antetokounmpo and Young for GPP captains. However, we also like pivoting to some cheaper captain options like Capela and Holiday, as they allow us to avoid the weak plays at the very bottom of the slate.
Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.
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