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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Showdown Core for July 8, 2021

Giannis Antetokounmpo DFS Pick
Devonte Graham (Charlotte Hornets) vs Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) during the Bucks v Hornets game on January 24, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by JB Autissier/Panoramic/Icon Sportswire) ****NO AGENTS---NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA SALES ONLY****

We were not expecting Giannis Antetokounmpo to play leading up to game one as he had a doubtful tag leading up to the game. He ended up being ruled questionable and then able to play closer to lock. Despite Antetokounmpo playing over 35 minutes, the Suns were still able to take a commanding victory. For DFS, we saw another massive night from Chris Paul as well as some disappointing nights from a few of the Bucks guys. Tonight’s slate is tough from a salary perspective, as the value plays are atrocious. Our situation is made a bit easier by some great price tags on some of the studs, but it is still going to be tough to fit all the studs we want tonight. 

Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 7/8/21 (using DraftKings Values)

CaptainG. Antetokounmpo $17,100
Utility   
UtilityB. Forbes $1,800
Utility   
UtilityJ. Holiday $8,800
Utility   

As we mentioned Antetokounmpo ended up playing in game one, and he looked healthy throughout 35 minutes. The Bucks want to come back swinging in game two, and we think it is likely that Antetokounmpo can play 40 or more minutes for this one. Antetokounmpo only costs $17,100 in the captain tonight, or $11,400 in the flex. This is considerably cheaper than we are used to seeing Antetokounmpo, and it is also only $1,000 more then other studs like Paul. Antetokounmpo is clearly the top player on this slate in terms of DFS production, as he averaged a whopping 15.8 FPTS more then next best guy on the slate. If Antetokounmpo can play a healthy 40 minutes tonight he is going to be a guy we want in all our lineups at this price.

We have seen several slates recently with weak value options, but tonight is clearly the toughest. All the value options we have are either a little too expensive here or extremely risky. Due to the nature of DraftKings showdown slates, we really like getting to a cheap punt here as we can roster someone for so cheap. One guy who stands out is Bryn Forbes at $1,800. This play is all about the price, as Forbes is so cheap here he allows us to Captain Antetokounmpo and roster two other studs easily. Forbes really does not look good from a production standpoint, but he is the best option we have in this price range. He has played over 10 minutes in four straight games, so we do expect him to see the floor. He usually takes between three and six three pointers, and he will be a nice value play at this price if he can hit a few of them. Given how the salaries work out for lineup construction here, Forbes might end up working out.

Holiday really flopped in game one, as his awful shooting was a huge factor in the Bucks loss. However, his poor performance in game one has led to his price dropping to only $8,800 here for game two. We do not expect Holiday to have another four of fourteen-shooting night, and that is the only reason he was bad in game one. We know Holiday will play a ton of minutes and put up a lot of shot attempts. He is also a great peripheral stat guy, as he typically gets a lot of points, rebounds, and steals. Holiday is easy to fit into our lineups at this price tag, and he has a ton of upside if he can have a better shooting night.

Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 7/8/21 (using FanDuel Values)

MVPG. Antetokounmpo $16,000
Star   
ProJ. Holiday $13,000
UtilityB. Forbes $6,500
Utility   
    

Now what do you get if you sign up now?
• A few of our favorite studs and value options for the night
• Some general strategy for the night
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Chris Paul – ($10,400 DK) Paul has been priced up on both sites, but it is absolutely warranted. Paul has been crushing lately, as we have had the pleasure of watching him rise to the occasion for some of the most important games of his career. Paul has been consistently playing over 35 minutes and we would expect him to play at least 40 if this stays close. On top of the floor time, we have seen Paul taking over for the Suns offense. The Reason Paul only averaged 39.1 FPTS is he is not trying to take over 48 minutes a night. As the playoffs have progressed, we have seen Paul’s role gradually increase, to the point of him putting out the monster performances we have seen lately. Paul is one of our favorite studs to pay up for tonight, regardless of the price tag.

Deandre Ayton – ($9,200 DK) Ayton has seen an ugly $800 price increase since his last game, but it is warranted with how productive he has been. Ayton scored 49.25 FPTS last game and he has shown upside north of 60 FPTS recently. Ayton is still a lot cheaper than some of the other studs we can get to, which helps a lot due to the lack of value tonight. However, we prefer getting to Holiday at $400 less if it is between the two of them. 

P.J. Tucker – ($4,600 DK) If there were more options for value tonight we really would not be interested in Tucker at this price. However, we need to find some cheaper guys and at least we know Tucker always plays a lot of minutes. He has played over 30 minutes in each of his past three games, and we expect to see him play mid thirties in minutes tonight. If he can hit a few three’s here, it is likely he will end up being one of the better budget guys we have to choose from.

Pat Connaughton – ($4,000 DK) Connaughton is very similar to Tucker here, as we are forced to consider him for value. He always plays decent minutes, and he can easily go for 20 or more FPTS. Him and Tucker are two of the only guys in this price range we can expect to see the floor, so we have no choice but to take some shots on them. 

General strategy 

This is one of the tougher slates we have had in a while, so it is a little harder getting a great cash lineup. However, we do know what we like for Cash tonight, which is going to be Antetokounmpo at captain with Paul and one of the Bucks studs. Forbes, Tucker and Connaughton will likely be popular for vale tonight, so that is where we are looking for cash games and single-entry tournaments. For big tournaments, this slate is going to be all about getting the right value plays, as any budget guy who performs well here will really stand out. We are focused on trying to get exposure to a lot of different cheap guys, so we can try and have a few lineups with the guy who randomly goes off. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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