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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Showdown Core for July 20, 2021

Giannis Antetokounmpo
LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 29: Milwaukee Bucks Forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts to a call during a NBA game between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Clippers on March 29, 2021 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. The game was played without fans due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

After starting off the finals with two losses, the Milwaukee Bucks have taken all the momentum here with three straight wins. Last game, the Bucks showed all of us how good they are when all of there studs are hitting their shots. Tonight, it is the Pheonix Suns who find themselves in the hotseat as they face elimination in game six. For DFS, we have a tough slate tonight as the salary is not working our favor. Most of the studs have been priced up here, but it is the value plays that really kill us. We have no viable plays under $3,000 tonight, and most of the decent value has been priced up towards $5,000. It is going to be difficult to fit in all the stars we like tonight, as we do not have great ways to save salary. One option that is very enticing for this slate is to roster cheaper studs like Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul over the more expensive stars like Khris Middleton and Devin Booker.

Here’s a showdown core For DFS NBA Basketball 7/20/21 (using DraftKings Values)

CaptainG. Antetokounmpo $19,200
UtilityC. Paul $9,000
UtilityD. Ayton $8,200

This is one of those slates where it can be hard to decide who you really like. A lot of the stars on this slate offer a ton of variance, as anyone who tells you they know if Booker or Middleton is going ot have their big night is lying. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the one play on this slate who really stands out, and he is the one guy who I personally am using in each one of my lineups tonight. Antetokounmpo consistently scores over 50 FPTS and that is absolutely our expectation tonight. Antetokounmpo is considerably more expensive than anyone else on this slate, but we are just going to have to find the salary. As we have mentioned before there is no other superstar playing in this series, so we simply do not have a lot of opportunity cost in taking Antetokounmpo. For Cash games, we would not consider another captain. However due to the lack of value tonight, we don’t mind getting some Paul or Jrue Holiday at captain for the savings. Nevertheless, Antetokounmpo is still our priority for captain in GPP’s.

Chris Paul was one of our favorite plays last time out, and as he is still cheap he is a priority for us again tonight. Paul is $9,000 here, which is marginally less than his running mate in Booker and the secondary stars we have from Milwaukee. We really like getting to Paul at this price for a few reasons. Firstly, the value is very tight tonight as we have mentioned a few times. We do not have any good plays at the very bottom here, so getting to a stud at $9,000 as opposed to over $10,000 means a lot here. Furthermore, we are happy having Paul over some of the other guys anyway, as we are excited to see what he does tonight. This game is fifteen years in the making for Chris Paul, as a loss tonight means an elimination from his only ever finals run. We expect Paul to play almost the entire game tonight, and he is going to try and take a lot of the offensive responsibilities into his own hands. Paul has massive upside here, as we have not seen put out a big scoring night in a few slates.  He is around $800 cheaper then where he was at the start of the series, and specific factors like blowouts or foul trouble have limited him in some games since. The only reason not to like Paul at this price is if you think he is going to disappoint tonight, which is not something we ever want to bet on.

Along with Paul, we really like getting to Deandre Ayton, as he is much cheaper than other studs on the slate. Ayton is only $8,200 here, so he is whopping $2,000 cheaper then studs like Middleton or Booker. Ayton was priced down drastically after the blowout loss in game three. He remains, way too cheap despite some solid performances since. Ayton played 45 minutes last game, and we expect to see him play as much tonight. The Suns are playing for a game seven in the NBA finals, so we have to expect their top guys play the vast majority of the game. Ayton has had some monstrous rebounding nights this series, thanks to the inconsistent shooting of the Bucks. Between the points, rebounds and defensive stats, there are a ton of ways that Ayton can show his upside here.

Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 7/20/21 (using FanDuel Values)

MVPG. Antetokounmpo $16,000
StarC. Paul $13,500
ProD. Booker $12,500

It is a tale of two sites tonight for Booker, as he his price point is far more enticing over on FanDuel. On DraftKings tonight, Booker is more expensive than anyone outside of Antetokounmpo. It is a completely different where he is cheaper than Paul, Middleton, Holiday, or Ayton. Like the other Suns studs we have talked about, we expect Booker could play the whole game and he will put up a ton of shots. Booker will be a must play if he has a big shooting night, and his price makes lineup construction quite easy on FD.

Jrue Holiday – ($9,600 DK)Holiday silenced all the critics last game, as he showed us just how complete a player he can be. Holiday went for 61.5 FPTS, as he performed well in all five of the stat categories. Holiday won the game for the Bucks with a huge steal and then later offensive rebound. When he is hitting his shots, he can go for a massive outing overall. We still like him over Middleton as the $600 salary difference is very noticeable here. Holiday has a ton of upside here, and we like fitting him alongside our core guys where we can.

Khris Middleton – ($10,200 DK) What is tough about this slate is a lot of guys have tons of upside, but we do not have the salary to play them all. Middleton is a nice tournament option where you can get to him, but it is going to be hard to fit him for cash games here. We know Middleton has a ton of upside if he has a good scoring game, but we can get similar upside for a lot cheaper with Paul and Holiday.

P.J. Tucker – ($3,400 DK) In a vacuum, Tucker is not a great play here. However, due to the lack of options he is one of our favorite value plays here. Tucker is the cheapest play who we expect to play significant minutes, and a lot of the other value plays are up north of $5,000 here. Tucker is a low usage guy, and he does not have too much upside. However, we need to find some plays that allow us to save the salary for our stars.

Cameron Johnson – ($4,400 DK) A lot like Tucker, Johnson really does not like a good play here. But due to the lack of options, we will be getting a lot of him. Johnson gives up some decent upside, as we know he could score about 25 FPTS on a good night. We do not have very many viable plays under $5,000 tonight, so we are forced into a lot of Tucker and Johnson.

General strategy 

The theme of tonight’s slate is the lack of value, as we do not have any viable options under $3,000 here. We mentioned how we are forced to get a lot of value plays that do not even look that good. The strategy we really like tonight is to use a ton of Ayton and Paul. They are significantly cheaper than Holiday, Booker and Middleton, which means that we do not have to get as ugly with our value. One option on DK tonight is to take a complete punt, in just rostering a guy for $1,000 who likely wont even play. The way the salary works out here, it is possible that a complete punt is in the ideal lineup if a lot of the stars have big games.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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