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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Showdown Core for July 17, 2021

Jrue Holiday
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 24: New Orleans Pelicans Guard Jrue Holiday (11) drives to the basket defended by Los Angeles Clippers Guard Paul George (13) during a NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Clippers on November 24, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Tonight is the pivotal game five of the NBA finals between the Pheonix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns host the Bucks tonight, after Milwaukee managed to even up the series with two wins at home. This is proving to be one of the best series we have seen all postseason, as the odds for who is going to win the series has gotten a lot closer. The Pheonix suns are still big favorites to win the trophy and they are currently plus 170 to win tonight. Along with being a fantastic series to enjoy as an NBA fan, this has been a great series for DFS as well. We have some great cash locks to build around, as well as some high variance options for tournaments. For tonight, are all about our three core plays. We have one guy who is an absolute lock for the raw FPTS, and two studs who are ridiculously cheap for this one. 

Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 7/17/21 (using DraftKings Values)

CaptainC. Paul $13,200
UtilityG. Antetokounmpo $12,600
UtilityD. Ayton $8,000

Chris Paul was not great in game four, as his poor shooting and turnovers were a key contributor in the Suns loss. With that said, we know how good Chris Paul is so we are not at all concerned that he will not be able to pull it together here. However, he has been priced down dramatically after that one bad game, as he is $800 cheaper than he was last slate. This is the cheapest Paul has been since the beginning of the playoffs, as he costs us $13,200 in the captain and $8,800 in the flex. Paul has been taking on a huge role this playoffs and we have no doubt he is going to bring everything he has to tonight’s game five. We expect to see him play close to 40 minutes here, and the Suns need him to have a bigger night offensively. The price tag on Paul allows us a lot of roster flexibility when we captain him, which makes him our favorite option for tournaments. However, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still our favorite captain for Cash games as he offers very consistent production.

If you are choosing not to captain Antetokounmpo tonight, then you absolutely want to put him in the flex. With a play this popular, you are already going low on him by captaining someone else. It is unlikely that we can get away with not having his raw FPTS here. Antetokounmpo has scored 71.5, 69.25 and 66.5 FPTS respectively in his past three games, as we are watching him put on a show to try and get the Bucks to the promised land. We saw Antetokounmpo play 43 minutes in game four and we expect to see something similar tonight if game five stays close. He is on a tier of his own for DFS production in this series, and the $12,600 price tag is not enough to make up for the difference in FPTS. 

Along with Paul, another Pheonix stud who we are all over tonight is Deandre Ayton, who we can roster here for only $8,000. This is the cheapest Ayton has been all playoffs, and he offers us a great midrange option here. Ayton is playing nearly 40 minutes a night and he has been absolutely feasting on the glass. We have seen some monster games from Ayton this postseason, and he is totally priced for a floor game here. 

Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 7/17/21 (using FanDuel Values)

MVPG. Antetokounmpo $16,000
StarC. Paul $15,000
ProK. Middleton $12,500

We saw a huge game from Khris Middleton last time out and we love getting back to him at this price point. The Bucks are low on scoring depth here, so we have seen some massive usage from there main guys. Middleton put up a staggering 33 shot attempts last game to go for 58.5 FPTS, and we expect the Bucks give him a ton of opportunity again tonight. Middleton is cheap over on FanDuel, so we really like him in any type of contest. We like Middleton on DraftKings as well, but he is more of a tournament option on DK for us.

Jrue Holiday – ($9,600 DK) We have been loving Holiday for a little while, as his poor shooting has led to some fantastic price tags. We are less interested in Holiday for tonight as his price has risen significantly. Holiday still struggled from the field last game, so we are surprised to see him priced up on both sites. We still like getting to Holiday for GPP’s, but it is hard to justify taking him over Paul at $800 more. 

Cameron Johnson – ($4,000 DK) We do not a lot of great value options tonight, but we also do have some underpriced studs. We like getting to Johnson for savings here as we know he see some solid minutes and has some floor. Johnson has played 30 and 29 minutes in the past two games, respectively. We have seen him score around 20 FPTS per night over the past five games, which is the best we are going to get in this price range.

P.J. Tucker – ($3,600 DK) Tucker has showed a very low floor lately, so he is a play we are going to try and avoid for Cash games. However, we know he will play around 30 minutes, and that much floor time gives him the opportunity to hit value here. Tucker can easily score close to 20 FPTS, which could make him one of the best value options tonight.

General strategy 

As we have been touching on a lot lately, the big factor for tonight is the shooting from Holiday and Middleton. The Bucks have a fantastic offense when the shots are falling for these guys, but we have seen them struggle. For DFS, both Holiday and Middleton offer a low floor for where they are priced tonight. Neither of them are guys we really like for Cash games, but we don’t mind Holiday for Cash. For GPP’s it is likely one of these guys has a solid shooting night, which would likely make them a must play.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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