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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Showdown Core for July 1, 2021

Jrue Holiday
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 24: New Orleans Pelicans Guard Jrue Holiday (11) drives to the basket defended by Los Angeles Clippers Guard Paul George (13) during a NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Clippers on November 24, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Trae Young was suddenly ruled out prior to game four of the eastern conference finals in Atlanta. To our surprise the Hawks still managed to beat the Bucks, and in dominating fashion. The Bucks suffered 22-point blowout loss to a Hawks team that does not have high expectations without Young. The other big news from game four was the injury that we saw Giannis Antetokounmpo pick up. Antetokounmpo is doubtful for tonight, so the situation for DFS is quite different then the past four slates. We have a ton of value from the Bucks tonight, and all our favorite options are Bucks guys. Young is currently a game time decision for tonight, and how we are approaching this slate is dependent on that news. If young are in, we are focused much more on the Bucks, but if he is out then the value looks just as good from Atlanta.   

Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 7/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

CaptainJ. Holiday $14,400
UtilityP. Connaughton $3,600
UtilityT. Young $10,800

With Antetokounmpo out for the Bucks tonight we have a lot of fantastic plays coming out of Milwaukee. We are looking to use one of the remaining two bucks studs at captain tonight, and they are both priorities for us. Jrue Holiday is our first option for captain tonight for a few reasons. Firstly, we have seen Holiday do a lot with Antetokounmpo off the floor in the past, and that is what we expect to see tonight. Holiday should take on a massive usage role tonight and we know he is the primary playmaker for the Bucks. Furthermore, Holiday is cheap tonight at $9,600. He is significantly cheaper then the other two stars on this slate and he allows us to squeeze in a lot of midrange guys with great upside. Holiday’s upside is as good as anyone else’s tonight with Antetokounmpo out, and he is an affordable captain to go for.

The value options on this slate are not overly fantastic but they are a lot better then when everyone was healthy. One priority for us tonight is Pat Connaughton at $3,600, as we expect him to have to see a lot of run if Antetokounmpo ends up out. Connaughton has played 32 and 26 minutes in his last two games respectively, and we expect him to easily hit 30 minutes if Antetokounmpo does not play. We need some cheaper guys to get to the studs we like so much tonight, and Connaughton has a solid floor here.

As we mentioned in our introduction we have no clue if Young is going to be able to play tonight or not. If he is in, he is a core play for us as we need someone from the Hawks tonight and he is our clear favorite. Most of the other perimeter players for Atlanta have been priced up and are too expensive if Young is able to play. Furthermore, with Antetokounmpo off the floor, Young averages more FPTS then anyone else on the slate by far. If he can play normal minutes we will likely need his raw FPTS here.

Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 7/1/21 (using FanDuel Values)

MVPT. Young $15,500
StarJ. Holiday $14,000
ProP. Connaughton $7,500

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Khris Middleton – ($10,400 DK) Middleton just missed the cut for our core lineup, but he is one of our favorite options tonight. We expect Middleton to take on a huge role without Antetokounmpo, and we have no issues playing him alongside Holiday. Middleton has crazy upside, as we have seen him score over 70 FPTS this playoffs and he should be taking higher usage with Antetokounmpo out. Middleton is a strong captain option, and a guy we want to fit in our lineup if we can find the salary. 

Clint Capela – ($6,800 DK) Capela has not been great this playoffs, but that is really starting to show up in his price. We are used to having to pay $2,000 more to roster Capela, which means he has a lot of upside if he can put a good game together. Capela has not been playing the best minutes lately, but he is one of the best players on the Hawks. It would not be a surprise if he plays closer to 40 minutes, so we really like him for tournaments.

Bogdan Bogdanovic – ($7,200 DK) If Young can play tonight we are not interested in Bogdanovic at this price. However, we want to mention him and Lou Williams as priorities if we find out that Young is out again tonight. Bogdanovic scored over 41 FPTS last time out and we expect him to see another big opportunity if the Hawks are still gutted. Williams has been priced up significantly, but we still like him if he gets the start again.

Bobby Portis – ($4,400 DK) Portis looks a lot better with Antetokounmpo out as we expect him to benefit from a lot of the spare minutes. Portis played 21 minutes last game with Antetokounmpo playing 24 minutes. If Parties can play around 30 minutes tonight he should be a great value option at this price.

General strategy 

The main thing we want to talk about here is how we are approaching the slate based upon the Young news. If Young can play tonight, there is a serious lack of value on the Hawks. Young may be a strong play, but the rest of the Hawks are simply too expensive for there roles. We really like the approach of using Holiday or Middleton at captain and rostering Young in the flex, as that is the approach we will be using for Cash games if Young is able to play. If Young is out, the slate becomes a bit more complex as we must balance priorities between two high value teams. We still like getting to Holiday captain, but we want a few of the high upside Hawks guys in Bogdanovic, Williams or Capela. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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