We have another two-game playoff slate to breakdown today as the Milwaukee Bucks host the Brooklyn Nets and the Denver Nuggets host the Pheonix suns for crucial game fours. We have a lot of the top stars in the NBA playing today, so our challenge is going to be deciding what studs to pay up for. We are looking at a more balanced build today, as we have a few stars that are way too cheap for this one. We are going to talk about four guys who we feel are using as a core for this slate, as well as some guys who we feel are priorities at there positions. Our favorite team to go after is the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, as we saw all their studs play well over 40 minutes in the last one.
|Point Guard||C. Paul||$7,400|
|Shooting Guard||J. Holiday||$7,200|
|Small Forward||B. Brown||$4,700|
|Power Forward||G. Antetokounmpo||$10,800|
Chris Paul has been a priority for us all series and we still love getting to him as his price rises to $7,400 for tonight. Paul has been fantastic in this series against the Nuggets, and we have not seen a hint of the injury issues that plagued him in the first round. He is still underpriced from how he was limited in round one, despite dominant performances in every game this series. Paul has scored 49, 50.25 and 52.5 FPTS respectively in the three games this series, and it really is not surprising that he is playing good in the playoffs. Paul is one of our favorite plays again, as his price is still so far off where he has been producing.
Jrue Holiday has been disappointing in the last two contests, but that does not stop him from being a core play for us tonight. Holiday is only $7,200 here, which makes him the one of the two most underpriced guys on the slate along with Paul. Holiday scored over 40 FPTS in almost every game against Miami, and that is the production we expect from him tonight. The reason Holiday is a core play here is the massive minutes we saw from him last game. Holiday played a whopping 46 minutes in regulation last time around, and we expect him to play well over 40 minutes again tonight. The Bucks are gutted in terms of guards, so if they want consistent guard play on either end it means a ton of run for Holiday. As the Nets are still up in this series, we expect the Bucks to continue playing there big three over 40 minutes again tonight.
Bruce Brown was fantastic last time around as he exploded for over 35 FPTS. We do not expect him to be quite as productive today, but he does not have to be at his $4.700 price tag. We do not have a lot of great budget plays today, so we are looking at value in this range. We know that James Harden is going to remain out here, so we expect the massive minutes to continue for Brown. Brown played 38 minutes last game, and it would not be a surprise if he plays somewhere around that today. The Nets do not have a ton of strong options, so we expect the starters play massive run as the series boils down.
We really like getting to all the three of the Bucks studs a lot tonight, as we saw them all play a ton of run last time out. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great superstar to pay up for here as we saw him play 43 minutes in the last game. Antetokounmpo should have a fantastic matchup against the Nets, and we expect him to have learned his lesson with all the missed three’s last time. If he is to play over 40 minutes again, he is the superstar we want to have. The Bucks need to win this one to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole, so we expect Antetokounmpo to go all out.
Here’s a balanced core For DFS Basketball 6/13/21 (using FanDuel Values)
|Point Guard||J. Holiday||$7,400|
|Point Guard||C. Paul||$8,500|
|Shooting Guard||B. Brown||$5,600|
|Power Forward||G. Antetokounmpo||$10,700|
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• Strong and stronger plays at different positions
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Monte Morris – G ($5,300 DK) Most of the value for today is on the top of the slate, not the bottom. However, we do have some cheaper options in this price range that we really like. Morris has had some huge games, and we have seen the Nuggets let him loose when his shot is falling. Morris went for 32 FPTS in 30 minutes last game, and we saw him score well over 40 FPTS a few times against Portland. Morris appears to be taking minutes away from the other guard options from the Nuggets, so we like getting to him for this one.
Kevin Durant – F ($10,300 DK) Durant is a fantastic spend up option for today, and we would be prioritizing him a lot more if we did not like Antetokounmpo so much. Durant has so much upside with Harden out of the lineup, and we have seen him constantly going for over 60 FPTS. Durant finished with 61 FPTS in 42.5 minutes last game, and we expect him to see a similar opportunity in this one. Durant shot the ball 28 times last game, and 28 shot attempts from KD is just too tempting.
Nikola Jokic – C ($10,600 DK) Jokic is a fantastic play, he led the league in FPTS, and we just saw him go for 78 FPTS last game. With that said, we can only play so many studs tonight, so we can only get to so much of these top end superstars. If you are playing multiple lineups, you want a health balance of Jokic, Durant and Antetokounmpo at the top end. However, if you can only get to one our favorite is Antetokounmpo.
Khris Middleton – G ($7,600 DK) We probably would not play all three of the Bucks studs in the same tournament lineup, but we do think they are all priorities. Middleton is a fantastic play tonight as it makes no sense why he has gotten cheaper since the last game. Middleton went off for 56.75 FPTS in around 44 minutes last game. Middleton does not need to be that productive to be a great play at this price, and we love getting to him as we expect him to play over 40 minutes again.
Will Barton – F (5,000 FD) Barton was injured coming into the playoffs and we just saw him return a few games back. Barton played an optimistic 28 minutes last time out, and we saw him take huge usage. Barton shot the ball 14 times last game and score 27.25 FPTS. The Nuggets are down 3-0 here, so they are going to be playing Barton as much as possible. It is likely he plays over 30 minutes tonight, which would make him our favorite option on the slate for value.
Brook Lopez – C (4,400 FD) In different circumstances, Jokic and Lopez would be swapped in terms of our priority here. However, we can only play so many studs, and we love the price tag on Lopez tonight. Lopez was fantastic with 31.25 FPTS in 35 minutes last game,, so it makes no sense he has gotten cheaper for todays game. Lopez will have great upside all series, as we have seen centers dominate against the Nets in the past. If Lopez continues to play over 30 minutes tonight, he should be one of the better value options available.
The big thing we want to talk about for this slate is the two paths you can take in terms of paying up for stars. There are three fantastic superstars tonight in Durant, Jokic and Antetokounmpo. If these guys go off for big enough games, there is a situation in which you need two of them. However, our preferred approach is to roster one of these guys and go for the more midrange studs. We have some fantastic midrange plays tonight in Holiday, Middleton, and Paul. So, we prefer to get two or three of those guys along with one of our superstar targets.
For Cash games tonight we want to get a lot of the Bucks big three, as that is where we expect the ownership to be focused. For tournaments, we like the multiple lineup approach today, as there are so many stars that could go off here.
Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.
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