We only have one game to break down here as most eyes will be on the UFC tonight. The Clippers have gotten themselves into another two-game hole, which means they need to win tonight’s game three. When the Clippers went down 0-2 against Dallas, we saw their top guys begin to play well over 40 minutes a game. We expect to see something similar here, so we really like getting to the main piece from L.A. On the Jazz side of things, we are still waiting eagerly for the news on whether Mike Conley will be able to play. Conley missed the past two games and is questionable going into tonight. If he ends up out, we really like using the Utah guys. However, if Conley plays tonight, we are going to be much heavier on the Clippers.
Conley’ s absence over the past few slates has led to a colossal usage rate for Donnovan Mitchell. We have a few strong options for captain tonight, but Mitchell is our favorite if Conley ends up out again. Mitchell has taken 59 shot attempts in the past two games, as the Jazz are relying on him heavily for offense. Mitchell went for over 60 FPTS in game one and he can easily go for a big game like that if he is to see another game without Conley. If Conley plays, we still like rostering Mitchell, but prefer using Kawhi Leonard for captain.
Kawhi Leonard has not been great so far in this series, which is part of why the Clippers are in this two-game hole. However, we really like Leonard going into tonight as we expect him to take on a massive role. Leonard was playing around 42 minutes a game once the Clippers fell behind against the Mavericks. We expect that kind of floor time for him with some massive usage here. Leonard has had so many big playoff games in his career and saw a slew of them in the first round. We like using Leonard at captain a lot here, and it is a huge risk to fade him entirely.
We have some surprisingly strong value for a single defensive based matchup. Royce O’Neale has been playing huge floor time lately and we love all the minutes we are getting at only $5,400. O’Neale has played 36, 36 and 41 minutes respectively in the past three games, and we expect him to play nearly 40 minutes if Conley remains out. O’Neale has scored over 29 FPTS in three of his past five contests, which is not surprising for the role he has seen.
Here’s a showdown core For DFS Basketball 6/12/21 (using DraftKings Values)
A lot of who we are going to prioritize tonight is hinged on whether Conley plays. Joe Ingles has seen a massive role with Conley off the floor and he is giving us some key salary savings over on FanDuel. Ingles is a nice option for tournaments, as he has a ton of upside for the price point.
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One factor in showdown slates is a much lower minimum salary. In consequence, if a guy near the minimum price ends up playing real minutes they can easily be the best play on the slate. There is some huge upside from the Clippers center rotation as both Ivica Zubac and DeMarcus Cousins are quite cheap for this one and have some potential to see increased minutes. The Clippers committed to a small lineup in the first round, but recently we have seen them scramble to find size to matchup with Rudy Gobert.
Cousins is the guy we are really looking at here for two reasons. Firstly, he has some fantastic upside for a real big night, Cousins has been dusted off for this series, playing four minutes in game one and then 11 minutes last time around in game two, Cousins is a fantastic per minute producer, so we like him even if he is only going to play about 15 minutes. At $1,400 on DK and $7.000 on FD, Cousins gives us a ton of salary savings. On DK, he is cheap enough that we you are effectively free to do as you wish for the rest of your roster if play him. The Clippers need to change something to make this work and giving real minutes to Cousins is one of the few options they have. Cousins could see a DNP tonight, but there is also a path in which he is the best play on this slate.
High upside guard plays
One thing we want to talk about briefly along with the Clippers big men is there point guard rotation. The Clippers play four small forwards big minutes, and it is a bit of a dart throw to figure out what they will do elsewhere. Reggie Jackson has emerged as the top point guard option for the Clippers, as he has been surprisingly productive over the playoffs, consistently scoring around 30 FPTS in big minutes. With that said, Jackson has been priced up significantly and it feels like the value is just not there at this point. Jackson is an ok option for tournaments, but that goes for everyone who plays significant minutes as we only have game.
We are much more interested in the cheaper Clippers guards, as coach Lue is desperately messing with that rotation. Rajon Rondo is an interesting value option at $3,200 on DK and $8,000 on FD. There is a ton of risk here as Rondo did not play last game, and instead Jackson played huge minutes. However, what they did last game did not work. We expected to see a bigger role for Rondo all playoffs and that is certainly not off the table. If they dust off Rondo tonight, he could be another huge play given the price. The final guard we have to talk about is Patrick Beverly who saw his minutes completely vanquish over the Dallas series. Beverly played 21 minutes last game, which is the first time he played significant minutes since game two of the first round. Beverly is another tournament options as he could be a great value if he gets the minutes. However, we are a bit less interested in Beverly as he is a terrible per minute producer. Watch the starting lineup here, as if Beverly or Rondo start they are fantastic options for value.
What are we doing with Mike Conley?
The most important factor of this slate is whether Conley plays. Conley’s status dictates the minutes we will see from all the main jazz pieces and is huge for determining who is a good value tonight. We are not overly enthusiastic about Conley regardless of if he plays or not, as we would much rather pay up a little bit on either site to get toRudy Gobert, who is a much better producer and does not have massive injuries threatening his minutes. However, if Conley is out that would create a ton of value for the Jazz. Guys like Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles are priorities for us if Conley is out and are favorite plays in the $5,000 range. However, if Conley ends up in, we are looking more at plays like Marcus Morris on the clippers side for that value. The other big thing it effects is where we want to play Donnovan Mitchell. If Conley is out, Mitchell is our preferred Captain on DraftKings and MVP on FanDuel. However, if Conley plays, we prefer to reserve those spots for Kawhi Leonard.
Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.
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