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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Picks For January 7, 2021

Luca Doncic DFS
LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 25: Dallas Mavericks Guard Luka Doncic (77) attacks the basket during a NBA game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers on February 25, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

With a five game slate tonight things do get clearer as far as what options to consider but that also means ownership will be more concentrated to a few options. It’s hard to ignore what Luka Doncic($10,500 DK, $11,100 FD) and Nikola Jokic ($10,900 DK, $11,300 FD) have been up to since the start of the season but you still need to fit seven or eight other players into your lineups. Differentiation in GPP lineups isn’t a bad thing and you don’t want to be in the situation where you are forcing players into your lineup just to afford a star as you need all eight or nine players to come together for a top-10 finish. 

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. One of the benefits of DFS is that it allows us to ignore a player’s weakness and focus just on their strengths. At the end of the day it’s all about how many points they can accumulate in any given night and nothing more than that. This means Andre Drummond’s ($8.400 DK, $9,200 FD) struggles from the free throw line are meaningless. The Cleveland big man can score and rebounds and at a copious amount and that is good enough for us. Last night Drummond needed just 26 minutes to score 19 points as he bounced back from a few quiet days offensively but he is averaging 14 points on the season. More importantly though Drummond is also averaging 14 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. If you fade Jokic and Joel Emblid ($9,500 DK, $ FD), Drummond can help you keep pace at the center position. 

Subscribers can now expect us to continue digging into today’s slate. Where will we find tonight’s bargains below $6,000 and who is making their season debut tonight? So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer. This is just the beginning though. For a one-time fee of $99 per year we have all sports covered here including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA, NASCAR, and League of Legends. We know how profitable these picks can be so you can even try it out for one month for free.

Just because we are on Drummond it doesn’t mean he is the only option for us to consider at the position. Early in the day we are going to operate under the assumption that Anthony Davis ($9,800 DK, $10,400 FD) will be sidelined after he suffered an abductor strain last night. This comes after Davis scored 26 points while adding 10 rebounds in one of his best games this season but his absence would point us in the direction of Montrezl Harrell ($5,900 DK, $5,300 FD). In 21 minutes against the Grizzlies on Sunday, Harrell scored 16 points and grabbed nine rebounds but his production has been limited as of late in direct correlation to his playing time. With 9.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game the skill set is there and Harrell deserves our attention if Davis is in fact sidelined.

Before we move away from the basket Jarrett Allen ($6,400 DK, $6,300 FD) is expected to be back in the starting lineup tonight and it is with good reason. All he did in his last game was score 19 points while grabbing 18 rebounds in 32 minutes of play against the Jazz. If that doesn’t warrant more playing time I’m not sure what does as Allen is averaging 12.2 points and 12.2 rebounds per game in 25 minutes of play to start the season.  

Let’s stay with Brooklyn but move out to the perimeter as the Nets are still without Kevin DurantIn their last game it certainly didn’t matter as the Nets made quick work of the Jazz with Kyrie Irving ($9,600 DK, $10,000 FD) scoring 29 points along with six rebounds, five assists, and three steals in 30 minutes of play. Irving simply wasn’t needed to do more but in the game prior he scored 30 points while dishing out 10 assists in 39 minutes so workload isn’t an issue. To this point Irving is showing he is up to the task of carrying Brooklyn and his usage will only increase while Durant is sidelined. 

If you want to follow the points tonight the highest scoring match-up pits the Timberwolves at the Trail Blazers with a projected over/under of 233.5. Starting with Minnesota the direction I’m heading in brings us to Malik Beasley ($6,100 DK, $5,600 FD). The guard is a large part of the Timberwolves offense and he has played 38 minutes in each of his last two games. Over that stretch Beasley is averaging 20 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while coming one-point shy of four straight 20-plus point games. To keep up with Portland, the Timberwolves will have to lean on Beasley to match the production that will come from the Trail Blazers’ backcourt. 

You can never find fault with Damien Lilliard ($9,300 DK, $9,200 FD) and his 28.2 points and six assists per game but I’m having a hard time so far this season separating him from C.J. McCollum($8,500 DK, $9,000 FD) who is averaging 25.4 points and 5.4 assists. Their ownership numbers should be relatively similar and while on an overall basis Lilliard is the better player, my thought process is that McCollum will fit better in your lineup from a salary cap perspective. 

If this was a betting article I would be point towards the 224 over/under between Philadelphia and Brooklyn as something to target in taking the over but instead I will just point you in the direction ofTobias Harris ($7,500 DK, $7,900 FD). Harris is in a weird spot as far as his price and the fact that he isn’t considered a “star” but the production certainly has been there. The forward is averaging 22.2 points per season and after a “down” game last night in which he scored 19 points the forward just missed five straight games of eclipsing the 20-point mark. With 8.2 rebounds and a few assists, steals, and blocks per game Harris does a solid job filling the stat sheet.

Another name to consider in the same game is more dependent upon their offense than anything but Seth Curry ($5,500 DK, $5,000 FD) also requires less of an investment. Curry is playing 31 minutes a game so he has plenty of opportunity to shoot and with 19.6 points per game the guard is certainly taking advantage of it. Last night he scored 28 points in 36 minutes for his third game in his last four of more than 21 points. At this price it is more than enough production even while factoring in that you can only expect a few rebounds and assists. 

We always want as much exposure as possible to high scoring games so let’s go back to the Timberwolves and Juancho Hernangomez ($4,400 DK, $4,200 FD) who is a newly minted member of their starting lineup. All the forward did in his last game was score 25 points while pulling down eight rebounds in 34 minutes of play. While I’m not sure we can expect a full repeat of that performance it does give us an idea as to what Hernangomez is capable of.

As you fill out your roster if you need another cheaper option with a guaranteed floor of around 20 DFS points with the room for a few more then Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,400 DK, $4,400 FD) should be on your radar. Starting for Dallas the forward has played in 33 and 36 minutes in his last two games while averaging seven points and five rebounds. That isn’t too far off from where is at for the season but if you are comfortable with that production, it doesn’t take much more than that for him to surpass his expected value while providing a solid floor with limited risk. 

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