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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Picks For January 5, 2021

Ja Morant DFS
LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 04: Memphis Grizzlies Guard Ja Morant (12) looks on from the bench before a NBA game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Los Angeles Clippers on January 4, 2020 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Tonight brings with it a five game slate and that means projected ownership percentages will come into play at the top. We are going to see ownership levels in the double digits with some elite players owned in more than 20% of GPP’s (remember it’s not really a concern in 50-50’s) but my thought process here is not to force anything. We will get into some of the superstar options available to us but my inclination is to just pick your team and don’t worry about everyone else is doing at least for the majority of your lineups. Then take all of that and throw caution to wind and take your best shot at the big GPP payday with a contrarian approach.

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. Someone had to account for the offense lost with Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson sidelined and that appears to be Kyle Anderson ($6,300 DK, $6,300 FD). Anderson is averaging 18.6 points per game with a season high of 28 after leading the Grizzlies in scoring with 18 points in their last game against the Lakers. With 32 minutes per night playing time isn’t an issue for Anderson as the swingman is also filling the stat sheet with eight rebounds and four assists per game. Anderson gets another crack at those Lakers tonight and there is upside here based on his price and expected usage. 

Subscribers can now expect us to continue digging into today’s slate. Where will we find tonight’s bargains below $6,000 and who is making their season debut tonight? So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer. This is just the beginning though. For a one-time fee of $99 per year we have all sports covered here including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA, NASCAR, and League of Legends. We know how profitable these picks can be so you can even try it out for one month for free.

We have been so focused with the eternally questionable LeBron James ($10,100 DK, $10,200 FD) so far this season that Anthony Davis ($9,500 DK, $10,000 FD) has flown under the radar somewhat. Davis has also nursed some injuries and he has been inconsistent to start the season so it’s not without reason. Against Memphis on Sunday, Davis put up a pedestrian (for the price) 17 points and nine assists which isn’t that far off from his season marks of 21 points and 9.5 rebounds to start the season. Until I see Davis consistently perform at a higher level though, I am taking my business elsewhere.

Despite that ankle injury still hanging around you seemingly can never go wrong with James who is coming off a 22-point, 13 rebound, eight assist performance which slots right in with the 24.2 points, 9.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists he is averaging per game to start the season. Each night James always gives you a shot at putting up a triple-double which happens to be what Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DK, $10,500 FD) is averaging with 21 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 12.6 assists per game. At this point, the Denver center is as predictable as they come with a floor of 50 to 55 DFS points per night with room for more.

Taking things down a step or two Davis’ opponent, Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600 DK, $6,800 FD) offers pretty much a guaranteed double-double with 15 points and 11.4 rebounds per game but at this price I want upside in a GPP. There is nothing wrong with predictability but if I am trying to take down a tournament I need upside and Valanciunas just doesn’t provide it. 

Instead I would drop down to Wendell Carter ($5,700 DK, $4,900 FD) as his Bulls take on the Trail Blazers in what projects to be the highest scoring game of the night with an over/under of 234. Carter is coming off a lopsided game against the Mavericks in what he managed just seven points and seven rebounds but he was only on the floor for 23 minutes. Overall, Carter is averaging 27 minutes a game while scoring 13.4 points per game to go along with 8.4 rebounds. 

Regardless of whether or not he moves back into the starting lineup to replace Kevin Durant who is sidelined due to COVID-19 protocols Caris LeVert ($6,600 DK, $6,100 FD) is the target here. LaVert shined last season when Durant was sidelined as he became the go to scoring option for Brooklyn and that was on display a few games ago when he put up 28 points while handing out 11 assists. A repeat of that performance isn’t unreasonable as LaVert will likely find himself in the middle of things for the Nets who are projected to score 114 points tonight against the Jazz. 

At the same time it appears Taurean Prince ($3,300 DK, $3,700 FD) will also see an increase in playing time as he is actually projected to be moved into the starting lineup. To this point Prince has averaged 16 minutes per game while scoring 7.6 points along with grabbing 3.2 rebounds. Prince’s best performance of the season doesn’t exactly jump off the page with 12 points in 19 minutes but the price is right here and the bar to surpassing a positive return on investment isn’t that high.

We have seen Zach LaVine ($8,000 DK, $8,100 FD) take the next step as a scorer this season (26.6 points per game) and that was especially true on Sunday as the guard put up 39 points against Dallas. It is clear that Chicago is going to take part in their share of high scoring games this season and as their go to scorer LaVine will continue to play a large role in that with 26.6 points per game while also contributing six rebounds, 4.6 assists, and two steals per game while becoming a DFS asset.

Along those same lines we can’t ignore Damian Lilliard ($9,800 DK, $9,200 FD) and C.J. McCollum ($8,400 DK, $8,900 FD). After scoring 32 points against the Warriors on Sunday, Lilliard is at 29.8 points per game but his six assists per game do limit his DFS upside slightly compared to some of his peers who truly fill the box score. If you would like a share of Portland’s backcourt tonight then McCollum should be the direction you go in as he is averaging 29 points per game while also contributing roughly the same rebounds (four) and assists (6.2) per game at a cheaper price.

If you are still searching in the backcourt I would instead direct my attention to Jamaal Murray($7,600 DK, $7,900 FD) who is coming off back to back 30-plus point performances including 36 points against Minnesota on Sunday. At this point it appears Murray is past his early season struggles as his shooting has improved and he is averaging 27.8 points per game with a few rebounds and assists. 

Robert Covington ($5,100 DK, $5,000 FD) has yet to do much from a scoring perspective in his new home with Portland but he is averaging 33 minutes a game so there is plenty of opportunity for production. We are still waiting for Covington to score more than nine points in a game (he is averaging seven per game) but he did pick up 11 rebounds two games ago and facing the Bulls might be just what he needs to get back on track. 

The move to the bench didn’t exactly change things for Naz Reid ($5,200 DK, $4,800 FD) as he continue to play around 20 to 25 minutes per game. Reid scored 13 points in the fourth straight game in which he reached double-digits bringing his average for the season up to 12 points per game. With just four rebounds and 0.6 blocks per game, Reid’s upside is limited but he provides solid production for the price. 

While Gary Harris ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD) is an intriguing value option in Denver’s starting lineup, I prefer looking to their bench and Monte Morris ($4,800 DK, $4,500 FD). Harris has struggled offensively to start the season and in his last two games he has scored a combined nine points while averaging 7.2 points per game. Morris on the other hand is playing 30 minutes per game with 14 points and 4.2 assists per game. Looking to the starting lineup is often a good indication of potential production but it shouldn’t be an absolute. 

So, what did you think?

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