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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Picks For January 4, 2021

Buddy Heild
January 30, 2020, Los Angeles, California, U.S: Sacramento Kings' Buddy Hield (24) is defended by Los Angeles Clippers Patrick Beverley (21) during an NBA basketball game between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Sacramento Kings, Thursday, Jan. 30, 2020, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Ringo Chiu/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)

What better way to spend the first Monday since September without NFL action than with a nine game NBA slate? Things are interesting from a star power perspective as James Harden ($11,100 DK, $11,400 FD) is questionable with an ankle injury after sitting out seemingly out of nowhere on Saturday. Luka Doncic ($10,300 DK, $11,100 FD) sat with a quadricep injury last night, and the expectation is that he will likely be sidelined tonight as well. There are a few other options though if you are looking to spend some money, and we will get to them shortly. 

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. We are still waiting for some over/under marks to be solidified but what we do know is that the match-up between Sacramento and Golden State will be high scoring with an over/under of 232.5. The Warriors are playing in the second end of a back-to-back and there are some attractive options on the Kings. That includes Buddy Hield ($6,800 DK, $5,700 FD) who is still working on finding his shot so far this season. It isn’t from lack of trying as the guard averages 15 field goal attempts per game in 36 minutes of play. So far that has equated to 15.8 points per game and tonight feels like a situation where Hield will eclipse the 20-point mark for the first time this season. 

Subscribers can now expect us to continue digging into today’s slate. Where will we find tonight’s bargains below $6,000 and who is making their season debut tonight? So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer. This is just the beginning though. For a one-time fee of $99 per year we have all sports covered here including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA, NASCAR, and League of Legends. We know how profitable these picks can be so you can even try it out for one month for free.

Did you really think we were going to ignore Stephen Curry ($9,300 DK, $9,500 FD)? Especially after we were on him last night and all he did was put up 62 points? Everything was working for the guard as he got to the free-throw line (the source of 18 of his points) while also being quite busy from behind the three-point line with 16 attempts along with 31 field goal attempts overall. Curry chipped in five rebounds and four assists and it wouldn’t surprise me to see that mindset carry over into tonight in what projects to be a high scoring game. We can’t expect 62 points again, but I’m not sure many would complain with half of that. 

If you want to talk about a repeat performance, Joel Emblid ($9,900 DK, $9,900 FD) got back in the double-double column against Charlotte on Saturday with 19 points and 14 rebounds. To begin the season, Emblid is one rebound short of a double-double in each of his four games while averaging 24 points and 12.3 rebounds on the year. Based on the Hornets’ struggles in defending the middle of the court, Emblid’s burden for a repeat isn’t all that high.

Dropping down at the center position brings us to Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DK, $8,700 FD) who appears to be finding his groove after a shortened off-season. Adebayo had his second game of double-digit rebounds on Friday (11) while scoring 19 points after putting up 22 points in the game prior as he finds his scoring touch. The Thunder don’t offer much in the way of resistance in the post so Adebayo should have plenty of room to operate, and rack up DFS production tonight.

After injury his ankle on Christmas, Jimmy Butler ($7,400 DK, $7,700 FD) sat out his next two games before returning on New Year’s Day. It was almost like Butler was still out as he scored just two points while grabbing three rebounds and two assists. That is clearly not the performance anyone was expecting but that means people might be sleeping on him tonight even though is salary has dropped pretty steeply from where it was less than two weeks ago. All we really have to go on with Butler is his 19-point, seven rebound performance from opening night but in a GPP I wouldn’t object to rolling the dice with the guard tonight against a weak opponent.

If Harden does sit out again it will benefit John Wall ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD) but through his first two games of the season the guard doesn’t appear to need much help. In his debut in Houston, with Harden on the court, Wall scored 22 points while picking up nine assists, and he followed that up with 28 points and six assists while his teammate was sidelined on Saturday. Wall is going to be a large part of the Rockets’ offensive attack and he looks comfortable in his new home so this is a situation I would continue to lean on.

Despite having started every game for the Magic so far this season, there isn’t much buzz surrounding Dwayne Bacon ($3,600 DK, $3,500 FD). I mean with nine points and 3.8 rebounds per game it doesn’t require much effort to figure out why. But as you look to save some salary cap space why not look to each team’s starting lineups? Bacon averages 24 minutes a game and is coming off a season high 30 minutes in his last game. The issue though is that Bacon only scored five points that night after putting 18 and 10 points, respectively, in his two prior games. But for the price, you can do worse. 

If we are talking value it is impossible to ignore Jalen Brunson ($3,300 DK, $4,500 FD) as if Doncic is sidelined he has to be considered a must play. Based on his price and what he did last night this isn’t a situation where I would concern myself with his ownership either. Elevated into the starting lineup against Chicago all Brunson did was score 31 points while chipping in seven assists and five rebounds. Regardless of our optimism on the point guard we can’t expect him to repeat last night’s performance from a scoring perspective but based on the price it simply doesn’t matter. Give me 15 points with those rebounds and assists and you won’t hear me complaining. 

When an injury elevates you into the starting lineup what Aaron Holiday ($3,500 DK, $3,500 FD) did on Saturday is not what you are supposed to do. Holiday was scoreless in 26 minutes of play after coming off a season high 12 points in his previous game. The swingman doesn’t contribute much in the way of rebounds or assists, and while he likely can’t do any worse and the price is cheap, he’s not an automatic start for me; especially in cash games. 

Instead I am going to go back to Malcolm Brogdan ($7,900 DK, $7,800 FD) who really stepped up with TJ Warren sidelined. Brogdan had his best game of what is shaping up to be a strong start to the season as he scored 33 points while also picking up seven assists. That brought his season averages up to 22.4 points and six assists per game and there is no reason not to expect a repeat as the usage will certainly be there. 

Elfrid Payton ($6,000 DK, $5,300 FD) and the Knicks will have to keep up with the Hawks tonight and after going scoreless to start the season he hasn’t had any issues putting up points. Payton generally fills the stat sheet and he is coming off a 19-point, eight rebound, five assist performance. The pace of play will be high tonight and the Knicks are projected to score 109 points with Payton highly involved.

If you want a true GPP lottery ticket tonight then you should have at least one share of Draymond Green ($5,400 DK, $5,000 FD). After missing the first three games of the season due to injury we will never see Green more affordable but it’s not like he has done much of anything in his return either. In the two games he has played Green has scored just one combined point in 46 minutes although he has grabbed seven assists and handing out 12 assists. It isn’t much but we know the track record is there from previous seasons and you could say Green is due and after his last two games, the ownership will be low. 

So, what did you think?

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