Modified after Memphis – Portland game was postponed.
We have got an exciting nine game NBA slate to tackle today. Lots of different ways to approach roster construction with 18 teams to choose from. My plan for today is to avoid paying high on some of the big-name players, while going light on teams that have been massively priced up due to injuries. Today I plan on targeting some cheap value plays with huge opportunities, as well as a few midrange plays with great upside.
Here’s a stars and scrubs lineup For DFS Basketball 1/20/21 (using DraftKings Values)
G D. Rose $5,400 (DK)
G __________ $3,800 (DK)
SF J. Grant $7,700 (DK)
PF J. Vanderbilt $4,900 (DK)
F C. Boucher $7,300 (DK)
G __________ $3,900 (DK)
Util __________ $8,600 (DK)
Derrick Rose is coming of off back to back games north of 30 FPTS. Yet he is still priced at just over $5,000, that is just too cheap. Rose is averaging 28.4 FPTS this season, which includes the game he got hurt and didn’t play much. Rose has crushed 25 FPTS in four of his six last outings. Today, Detroit is matched up against a high paced, defensively challenged Hawks team. There is no reason to think Rose can’t continue the trend and score six times value today.
$7,700 does not seem like a small price to pay for Jerami Grant, but he is simply underpriced at this tag. Grant is averaging 42 FPTS on the season and 44.8 FPTS in his last ten days. In Grant’s last seven outings, he has only failed to reach 40 FPTS on one occasion against a tough Bucks defense, in which he scored 34.5 FPTS and still almost hit value. In that span Grant has had surpassed 50 FPTS on two occasions. Today, Detroit is matched up with a high paced Atlanta Hawks’ team, which has already given up multiple big games to small forwards already this season. Grant is a great pay up option who frankly should be closer in price to the big-name stars on this slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns is out with COVID-19. As towns is out of the roster, expect big men like Jarred Vanderbilt to consume much more usage. It appears that Minnesota is intent on giving significant run to there young big men. Vanderbilt is likely to get a significant minute’s boost today, coming off a 30 FPT outing, I like his shot to break value today at this tag. Vanderbilt has shown a low floor, but if you want to pay up today there is a need to find value after the Memphis – Portland game was postponed.
Chris Boucher appears to have his eyes on the league’s most improved player award, as he has transformed from a bench warmer to a fantasy titan. Boucher is averaging over 40 FPTS over his last 10 and is coming off of a dominant 46.5 FPT performance. Do not be concerned if he does not get the start, as he has been playing big minutes with huge usage off the bench. Boucher is still priced at $7,300 on DK, which is just too cheap a pride tag for a guy you expect to get you 40 FPTS. The matchup isn’t great, but frankly Boucher is still $1,000 too cheap in this spot.
Now what do you get if you sign up now?
• We’ve got an underpriced starting guard
• A few buck-up options with massive opportunities.
• Even more different directions to take with your lineup.
Edmond Sumner – SG ($3,800 DK) Sumner appears to have comfortably worked his way into the starting lineup. After the blockbuster trade last week, Indiana is left with a pretty barren roster. Sumner is not a super high usage player and is not a spot I expect to blow up the slate. However, after the Memphis game was postponed, value is a lot harder to find on this slate and Sumner is a very safe bet at $3,800. Coming off a 20 FPT game, if Sumner can repeat that production, he is a great play for this slate.
Christian Wood C ($8,400 DK) Wood looks like another great pay up play for today. Like Victor Oladipo, Wood is benefiting from playing on a Houston team that does not have a lot of cooks in the kitchen. Wood has made a name for himself as a fantasy superstar, averaging 44.7 FPTS on the season. Wood’s last ten average is 43.7, but that is gravely lowered by two games against a stifling Lakers defense. With the limited roster for Houston, Wood can definitely see a huge night tonight, and he should have a pretty reliable floor as well.
Jarrett Culver G ($3,900 DK) – Culver is another value play that I likely overlook had Memphis not been postponed today. However, Culver has became on of the few sub $4,000 plays that I consider to be viable. With Towns out, I expect Culver to get a decent usage bump, and that may be all he needs. If Culver plays north of 20 minutes today, he probably hits value. With the depleted Minnesota roster, I think culver is a great way to make room for more enticing players on your slate.
Nikola Vucevic – C ($8,600 DK) Vucevic is one of my favorite spend up options on the entire slate. Looking at the massive prices on players like Kevin Durant ($10,500 DK) and Damian Lillard($10,400 DK), Vucevic looks like a great option at $2,000 less. Tragically, Karl-Anthony Townstested positive for COVID-19 last week, for the Timberwolves that leaves them with a rotation of inexperienced and sub-par big men. The Timberwolves are already the absolute worst team in terms of defending opponent big men so far this season. Vucevic is averaging over 50 FPTS in his last ten days, and with this dream matchup there is no reason to think that should change today. Furthermore, Orlando is still expected to miss a few players, including high usage guard Evan Fournier, opening up even more shots for Vucevic today.
Alternative Moves…
• Luka Doncic PG ($10,700 DK) Luka has been on an absolute tear this season, Doncic has been playing on an undermanned roster, with players like Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith out due to the league’s health and safety protocols. Luka has seen an increase in his already monster usage in this time and has hit 70 FPTS more often than not. I expect the ownership to be limited in this spot due to an outlier poor game against the raptors last game. Doncic can easily go for north of 70 here and if that happens, you’ll want him on your roster no matter what. The only problem I have with Luka is his price tag makes it much harder to spread to those midrange pay ups I am so fond of today.
• Eric Gordon SG ($5,500 DK) Gordon is another Houston player capable of creating shots, making him very enticing today. Gordon scored 30 FPTS in a similar situation in his first game back. I do prefer Victor Oladipo as he has much higher potential to have a huge assist night in this spot, but if Gordon gets hot, he will blow past value at this price making him an excellent GPP play. Pivoting from a more expensive Oladipo to a likely less owned Gordon is a great play for GPPs.
• Kelly Oubre Jr, ($5,500 DK) If you follow the NBA, you probably know that Oubre started this season with abysmal shooting from range. In consequence Oubre has seen his price drop on DK to much lower than it should be given his role on the team. Over his last few games, Oubre seems to be getting his shots to start falling averaging 30 FPTS in his last ten with a 37 FPT performance last game. If Oubre doesn’t go ice cold tonight, his production should easily surpass his price.
• Victor Oladipo scored 54.25 FPTS on Monday in his first game as a Houston rocket. As John Wall remains sidelined for today’s game, Oladipo will likely continue to get the start at point guard. Considering the lack of ball handler’s on Houston, Oladipo should continue to get massive minutes and usage today. With a price tag of $7,800, Oladipo can feasibly achieve six- or seven-times value on this slate. With PG/SG viability, Oladipo is quite easy to find a spot for in your build.
• DeAndre Jordan C ($5,500 DK) With Jarret Allen shipped to the Cavaliers, Jordan has been left as the only center on the Brooklyn roster. He has shown to still be an absolute rebounding machine who can block a few shots and slam a few dunks. What really attracts me to DJ today is that Brooklyn is facing a huge Cleveland team, and I would not be surprised if Jordan plays over 30 minutes just to match up. Not a super exciting pick but Jordan’s minutes and role may prove to still be a strong play at this price.
There are a lot of different ways to go tonight, giving yourself time to review all the options on this slate will surely pay off,
Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.
