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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Picks For January 19, 2021

Jokic from Denver
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 10: Los Angeles Clippers Center Montrezl Harrell (5) and Denver Nuggets Forward Nikola Jokic (15) battle for a rebound during a NBA preseason game between the Denver Nuggets and the Los Angeles Clippers on October 10, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Today, we have the smallest slate since opening night for this young NBA season. Only two games will be played without a lot of glamorous picks compared to what  we have been accustomed to over the past few weeks. That is not necessarily a bad thing but you can feel pretty confident that today will not be a slate you need to land into the 300s in order to cash in on DraftKings and FanDuel. My priority for this slate is to attack the Denver – Oklahoma City game as it projects for a much faster pace with potentially poor defense. Overall, I like trying to maximize ownership on the few value picks that look good, in order to open up room for some really enticing studs.

Here’s a stars and scrubs lineup For DFS Basketball 1/13/21 (using DraftKings Values)

         C       N. Jokic                                  $11,000 (DK)

         C       M. Muscala                           $3,400 (DK) 

         G      S. Gilgeous-Alexander         $8,700 (DK) 

         SF     __________                            $3,600 (DK)

         PG    __________                            $7,300 (DK)

         SG     PJ Dozier                             $3,900 (DK) 

         PG/SG __________                         $3,500 (DK) 

         C         __________                          $7,600 (DK)

Nikola Jokic is simply head and shoulders above the rest for this slate. Jokic is averaging in the ballpark of 20 FPS more than anyone else on the slate for DraftKings. With a matchup against OKC, I don’t think that is going to change today. Al Horford is out which will likely lead to Jokic playing lots of minutes against Roby and Muscala – neither of whom stand a particularly good chance of slowing him down.

After Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at $8,700 DK is my favorite big spend on the slate today. This season, Shai has had all the opportunity in the world with Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder off the team. It appears Shai is starting to get comfortable with his newfound usage, passing 50 FPTS in four of his last six outings. Shai has seen a small price jump recently but I still feel he will be going for over $9,000 on both sites by the end of the season. On a slate with minimal superstars playing, I really like Shai as a contender to drop 50 plus fantasy points. 

If you’re looking to play Jokic and Shai you will be relying on some cheap value plays to show up. The clear opportunity for value on this slate is the absence of al Horford. Mike Muscala going for barely over minimum on DraftKings is a great play. He is set to get solid minutes without Horford and is a decent per minute producer. In this spot you do not need much from Muscala, just enough to help you get to the players with more solid floors. 

I honestly cannot believe PJ Dozier is a core play for me, but here we are. The fact is your going to need to have guys with sub-$4,000 price tags today and there aren’t many tempting ones. PJ Dozier is not a thrilling play but he is facing the best team to target today in OKC. Dozier had 27.5 FPTS on DK in his last game and hit the 20 FPTS mark on three of his four past outings. If dozier can get into the 20s today he’s a great play to open up room for your slate.

Now what do you get if you sign up now?
• We’ve got a two insanely good values to open up the lineup.

• We’ve got you a guard with some sky – high upside.
• And some solid midrange picks to give you some lineup options.

Kenrich Williams – SF ($3,600 DK) You might notice a trend of trying to juice value out of Horford’s injury. On this slate, OKC is definitely my main source of value, and that doesn’t stop with Kenrich Williams. Williams is a guy who I would never touch if not for Horford being out. However, Williams has been a decent per-minute producer and has played solid minutes in the last two with Horford out, causing him to land in the mid to high 20s on DK, if he can continue that trend he is another great value for today

Jamal Murray –  PG ($7,300 DK)  I think Murray is more of a GPP play for today (especially on FD), however he is an essential GPP play. Murray has one of the best upsides out of everyone on this slate. We all remember what he did in the playoffs last year and we see constant 40 – 50 night outings from him, just last game Murray dropped 46.3 on DraftKings. If Murray is feeling it tonight, he will simply be a must if you are in the business of taking home GPPs. However with a last 10 average of only 30 FPTS, I would be weary rostering Murray for cash games.

Theo Maledon – D ($3,500 DK)  Full disclaimer, we all know Theo Maledon has a floor similar to that of the grand canyon, however he still is one of the more enticing value plays on the slate tonight. For cash games, I would probably pivot to a Muscala or Dozier but Theo Maledon is a value play worth considering. He has hit five times value three of his last four contests, and that may be all you need today.

Rudy Gobert – C ($7,600 DK)  Gobert is a guy I won’t be getting to at all on FanDuel today. He is too expensive at $8,500 FD and there is too many other opportunities at the center position. However, on DraftKings, I think he is a very solid play. $7,600 is a fairly good price to pay for Gobert. We’ve seen him get into the 40s pretty easily. You know what you’re getting with Gobert which is: 30 minutes and good production. On a slate without a lot of options, hard to avoid some Rudy. 

Jordan Clarkson  – G ($6,500 DK) Clarkson is a play I am only going to look to if ingles continues to be out. If he is in, I expect minutes to go down and I am a lot less interested in Clarkson. If ingles is still out, Clarkson has been absolutely gobbling usage and averaging in the mid-30s in his last 10. That is the exact production you are looking for if your going midrange for this slate.

Isaiah Roby – PF/C – ($4,100 DK) 

For a player like Roby, I far prefer to pay in the $3,000-range, however he is still worth looking at today. Roby will likely get the start at center in Horford’s absence thus giving him a massive minutes bump. In the last two without Horford, Roby has scored mid 20s both games. If he continues this trend he is a solid value for today.

Alternative Moves…

• Brandon Ingram ($9,100 DK) and Zion Williamson ($7,900 DK), are two guys I would definitely get to if your playing multiple lineups, as they have some of the best upside on the slate. If not for an awful matchup against the Jazz, there guys I would be giving very high exposure to.

• Lonzo Ball ($6,300 DK) is considered “probable” as I am writing this. Eric Bledsoe ($6,000 DK)  and N. Alexander-Walker ($5,400 DK) both become great guard plays but this is only if Lonzo deemed out.

• Bol Bol ($3,000 DK) Bol Bol is only a contrarian GPP pivot for me. He will likely continue to get the start at SF but the minutes and production still aren’t there. I mention him because for a starter at minimum price you have some chance that he performs as a value play.

Overall, this is not a super exciting slate, and I wouldn’t blame anyone for playing small today.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that. 

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