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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Picks For January 1, 2021

DraftKings vs. Fan Duel NBA DFS
March 10, 2020, Los Angeles, California, U.S: Los Angeles Lakers LeBron James (23) passes the ball during an NBA basketball game between Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets, Tuesday, March 10, 2020, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Ringo Chiu/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)

Aside from the standard greetings to begin the New Year about prosperity, health, and following through with your resolutions we go a little deeper here. Of course those are the true priorities and they are amplified in our new reality that we have been living in for the last 10 months but the intention is for this to be the most profitable DFS year yet. Let’s take that journey together.

With a 10-game slate tonight there is ample opportunity to get off on the right foot.  I like consistency so we should note that once again LeBron James ($10,000 DK, $10,400 FD) is listed as questionable even though he has yet to miss a game with his ankle injury and he is averaging 23.4 points, seven rebounds, and 6.8 assists through his first five games of the season. Make sure you keep an eye on the news and have a pivot in place should James surprise us by actually sitting out. The one game where you don’t pay attention to James’ questionable tag is going to be the one where he doesn’t play. 

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. There isn’t the same question regarding Russell Westbrook as it appears certain that the star point guard will be resting on the second half of Washington’s back-to-back games. With that being the case let’s get a value pick out of the way with Raul Neto ($3,400 DK, $4,500 FD). As he did earlier in the week Neto is expected to move into the starting lineup tonight and all he did in his last start was score 22 points while adding five assists, four rebounds, and three steals. His price surged following that performance but then right back down as Neto returned to the bench despite him scoring 15 points in 22 minutes of action last night. 

Subscribers can now expect us to continue digging into today’s slate. Where will we find tonight’s bargains below $6,000 and who is making their season debut tonight? So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer. This is just the beginning though. For a one-time fee of $99 per year we have all sports covered here including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA, NASCAR, and League of Legends. We know how profitable these picks can be so you can even try it out for one month for free.

Milwaukee is currently favored by 14.5 points over a struggling Bulls team playing their second game in as many nights. With the Bucks projected to score 123 points the situation wreaks of DFS upside. The problem with the obvious play in Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK, $11,400 FD) is both his price and the fact that Milwaukee might not need him. He is coming off a triple-double in which he scored 26 points along with 13 rebounds and 10 assists but in the game prior which was a blowout, Antetokounmpo only played 24 minutes scoring nine points. If you do want exposure I would look to Jrue Holliday ($6,600 DK, $6,600 FD) who despite an uneven start to his Bucks’ career is still averaging 16.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game. 

Just because you only start one center it doesn’t mean you need to punt the position. In fact tonight it might make sense to build your team around two. Nikola Jokic ($10,600 DK, $10,200 FD) simply needs no introduction at this point as he has missed out on four straight triple-doubles to begin the season by just one rebound. Jonas Valanciunas ($8,300 DK, $7,700 FD) flies under the radar in comparison but he is averaging 15.5 points and 12.5 rebounds to start the season while becoming more involved in the offense following the injury to Ja Morant with a season best 20 points in his last game. Valanciunas should also feast against a Charlotte team that is weak in the front court.

We like to follow themes around here so you had to figure we would then go after Tyus Jones($5,100 DK, $5,700 FD) as he is the newly minted starting point guard for Memphis. With just six points and two rebounds, two assists, and two steals in 23 minutes Jones’ performance didn’t exactly jump off the page but I’m willing to give him another shot in a favorable matchup. 

There is nothing wrong with season averages of 23.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game but we are still waiting for Luka Doncic ($10,300 DK, $11,300 FD) to truly breakout. The guard struggled offensively in his last game with just 12 points and his play is still missing something overall. I know we are in a superstar driven league but I’m not sure we need to worry about forcing Doncic into our lineups tonight.

Perhaps now people will start to give Jaylen Brown ($8,100 DK, $7,900 FD) his due? The shooting guard is coming off his best game of the season against Memphis is which he scored 42 points which gave him a season average of 28 points per game along with 4.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.8 steals. His price has come up substantially to start the season, but the production to match is there. 

With an over/under of 244.5 to say there will be a lot offense between the Hawks and Nets tonight is an understatement. Under these circumstances sign me up for Kevin Durant ($9,100 DK, $9,400 FD)Trae Young ($10,100 DK, $9,700 FD), and Kyrie Irving ($9,300 DK, $9,300 FD) in that order. All three have the ability to score in bunches and it’s clear their teams respective offenses run through them. Sorry to burst your bubble though as we have that pesky thing called a salary cap. Fear not though because Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,600 DK, $4,100 FD) is in a prime spot to catch DFS players by surprise. The problem though is that he is not coming from a positive place as after scoring 21 points against Memphis in his first start of the season he followed that up by scoring three points in 26 minutes against the Hawks. We have seen the two extremes so now let’s meet in the middle in what we know will be a high scoring game.

If one of the two centers we noted above don’t fit in your lineup we have a third option that provides some welcome salary relief in Naz Reid ($5,200 DK, $4,700 FD). Since temporarily being promoted into the starting lineup Reid hasn’t seen his minutes climb all that much as he has scored 11 points in each of his last two games along with an average of four rebounds and 2.5 assists. Not huge upside, but there is also a solid floor with room for more. 

On the other side of that expected Milwaukee blowout there could a buying opportunity on Patrick Williams ($4,400 DK, $4,100 FD). Despite remaining in the starting lineup the rookie is taking a backseat to Otto Porter as far as minutes go but that might change in a lopsided game. Williams has shown the ability to reach double figures in points with an average of 10.6 per game but it is the lack of rebounds and assists that hold him back (2.4 and 1.2 per game, respectively). This is more of a GPP play than 50-50 as Williams could help offset a higher priced stud.

One potential recipient of that investment could be Devin Booker ($8,000 DK, $7,700 FD) who rebounded nicely after scoring just eight points two games ago. Last night the guard had his best all around game of the season with 25 points, seven assists, and three rebounds as he looks to build on it tonight. Even better though, is the fact that his price on Draft Kings has decreased by $2,000 following that eight-point performance. 

If you get to the end of your roster construction and need to plug a hole cheaply looking for the cheapest player in their respective teams starting lineup sometimes could be a viable option. In a GPP it is all about catching lightning in a bottle and Derrick Jones ($3,800 DK, $4,000 FD) is averaging 33.5 minutes per game to start the season for Portland. It doesn’t necessarily matter that he is only scoring 6.5 points and pulling down 3.8 rebounds per game as if he were doing more his price would be higher. The thought process here is that let’s take the chance he does something in all of those minutes of playing time he is receiving while saving some cap space. 

So, what did you think?

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