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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Advice for October 25, 2021

Luka Doncic
LOS ANGELES, CA - FEBRUARY 25: Dallas Mavericks Guard Luka Doncic (77) looks on during a NBA game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers on February 25, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

There are only five games on todays NBA DFS slate, and you can feel that we are starting to get into the meat of the season. This is the first slate that doesn’t have amazing value options on the bottom of the slate. One thing we are going to notice is there are not going to be many plays under $4,000 that give us a solid floor and ceiling. As that was really a byproduct of DraftKings and FanDuel not knowing where to price guys for the start of the season. We are looking at a stars and scrubs style build again today, but our value options are a little more expensive then the $3,500 priorities we had last time out. The team that we are looking at today the most is the San Antonio Spurs, as they still offer a lot of value with the high usage guys who left the team in the offseason. Our core lineup for tonight consists of our favorite Spurs options, as well as a few other priorities for the slate. In our premium content we will go over all our favorite picks as well our strategy for this tougher slate. 

Here’s a balanced core For DFS Basketball 10/26/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Point GuardD. Murray $7,300
Shooting GuardL. Dort $4,700
Small Forward   
Power ForwardK. Johnson $5,200
Center   
GuardL. Doncic $10,900
Forward   
Utility   

We were all over the Spurs coming into this DFS season, and a lot of there younger guys have certainly seen their roles increased. Dejounte Murray is the clear best play for San Antonio after this offseason, and we are still getting to him at $7,300 here. Murray has been solid so far, but there is still a lot of room for him to step up. Murray is averaging 37.5 FPTS over three games, and he is yet to have a night where he shoots 40 percent from the field. If Murray can put together a nice shooting night, he is in for an explosive performance. Murray has fantastic upside, and his is one of the only price tags that really stands out tonight. We like getting to him for cash or GPP’s here, and he is the guy we are going to be building around.

The first three games have been pretty underwhelming from Luguentz Dort, however we can’t forget how good Dort was towards the end of last season. We saw Dort taking high usage for the Thunder, and he was adequately priced at around $7,000. We saw Dort play massive floor time in OKC’s first close game of the season last time out against the Sixers. Dort has so much room for upside that we have not see this season, as there are a lot of ways he can stuff the stat sheet. We have seen some nice scoring nights from Dort in the past, typically on the back of a lot of three pointers. He is also a brilliant defender and capable of collecting tons of defensive stats. We expect Dort to have a productive season this year, so we like rostering him while he is only $4,700.

As we mentioned we really like getting to the young Spurs guys who are going to be taking over the team this year. The guy who we expect to see take the biggest step up is Keldon Johnson. Johnson has showed a ton of promise so far this season, and we are still able to get him at $5,200. Johnson is averaging 29.7 FPTS so far, so he should be a little more expensive here. There is also a ton of upside for Johnson to show a bigger game, as he has been playing a massive role Johnson has taken more shots so far then any other Spur by far, which is a huge step up from what he was doing last year. Johnson is yet to put together a big game with scoring and peripherals, but we want him when he does. At this price Johnson has a ton of upside without too much risk.

We have a few superstars on this slate in the five digit price range, and we are certainly looking to roster one of them. Are top superstar for tonight is going to be Luka Doncic, who is looking at a fantastic matchup with the Houston Rockets. Doncic scored 58.25 FPTS last time out, but we are still yet to see the crazy game from him this season. He is averaging 51.3 FPTS across his first two games, and we only expect that number to go up. Doncic can stuff the stat sheet in every way, and the Houston Rockets offer a weak defense for him to feast on. The upside here is fantastic, and if we can only get to one superstar we want Doncic.

Here’s a balanced core For DFS Basketball 10/25/21 (using FanDuel Values)

Point GuardD. Murray $7,800
Point GuardL. Doncic $10,900
Shooting Guard   
Shooting Guard   
Small ForwardL. Dort $4,800
Small Forward   
Power ForwardK. Johnson $5,600
Power Forward   
Center   
 

Now what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• Priorities at every position
• Some general strategy for the night
• More of the studs that we are looking at 
• A few priorities based on potential injuries 

Point Guard

Steph Curry – PG ($11,000 DK) Alongside Doncic, Curry is the superstar that really stands out here. Curry has been amazing three game into this season, which is no surprise as he needs to perform at an absurd level for this team to win their games. The Warriors are riding Curry hard on offense right now, and the result is 58 or more FPTS every game so far. The Oklahoma City Thunder are hopeless in terms of defending Steph Curry, so we expect him to have his way on offense once again. Curry is our frontrunner to lead the league in scoring again as of now and he is worth every bit of the $11,000 price tag.

Shooting Guard 

Andrew Wiggins – ($5,800 DK) It has certainly been a slow start of the season for Wiggins, as he is averaging 26.9 FPTS. However, we know that Wiggins is a productive DFS producer and there is room for him to do more this year for the Warriors. Wiggins came into the season on limited minutes, but it appears that he is in full playing shape right now. There are going to be some games when someone other then Curry has a big scoring night, and there is huge opportunity there for Wiggins.

Small Forward 

LeBron James  (9,400 DK) James is listed as questionable for tonight, but we know the Lakers use that tag liberally. James is another guy we are happy getting into our lineups if we have room for him, as we know he consistently produces at a high level for the Lakers. James has an easy matchup against the Spurs tonight, so we should see the consistent 50 FPTS we expect from him. If James ends up getting called out, we really like paying up for Russell Westbrook

Michael Porter Jr.  – (6,200 Dk) We are yet to see the superstar production that many expected out of Porter this season, but we don’t think the disappointing performances we have seen from him are going to last, MPJ shot four of fourteen last time out, and there will be a lot of nights when the shots are falling for him. Porter is still super cheap here, and there are not a lot of studs we can say that about. We like getting to a lot of Porter here, as recency bias will likely cause him to be less rostered then he should be.

Power Forward 

Anthony Davis – (9,200 DKOf all the Lakers studs Davis is probably going to be our favorite if all three play. He is averaging over 50 FPTS so far and we are getting him at a great price tag here. Davis has fantastic upside from rebounds, scoring and defensive stats, and we are hoping he shows it against San Antonio tonight. If James is out tonight, then Davis would be one of our favorite spend up options on the slate. We would prioritize him over Doncic and Curry in that case.

Center

Jakob Poeltl – (5,600 DK) Poeltl has been fantastic so far this season. We expected him to have a better year without LaMarcus Aldridge in the mix. He has been scoring more and dominant on the glass. So far in the season Poeltl is averaging 34.3 FPTS, so we are going to be interested in this price point. Poeltl has a great floor as the minutes are going to be there for him at center, and there are a few ways for him to have a big game.     

General strategy 

This is the toughest slate of the season so far, as it resembles what we usually get in NBA DFS. The value plays sub $5,000 all have a solid amount of risk, and our favorite superstars are all close to $11,000. For the first few slates of the season, we were able to play whoever we wanted, while tonight we must make sacrifices. We want to build around Murray and Johnson from the Spurs, and the upside of Curry and Doncic is what excited the most. Keeping an eye on the news is going to be key here, as a few stars being ruled out changes everything for a slate like this. For example, if James ends up out then we have a ton of value from the Lakers out of nowhere. Westbrook and Davis become two of our favorite spend ups, while cheaper options like Carmelo Anthony and Malik Monk look a lot better as well. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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