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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Advice for October 20, 2021

Fred VanVleet
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 10: Los Angeles Lakers guard Avery Bradley (11) is guarded by Toronto Raptors guard Fred VanVleet (23) during a NBA game between the Toronto Raptors and the Los Angeles Lakers on November 10, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA.(Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

Last night was the NBA season opener, but tonight we see most teams take the floor for the first time. We have our first massive slate of the season here, with eleven games to talk about. It can be a lot tougher to breakdown a slate of this size, as there is a ton of opportunity cost in every decision we make. If guys are not wildly underpriced or have great upside we are probably not interested. We are going with a surprisingly midrange style lineup for tonight’s slate, as we have found a lot of value in the $6,000 – $8,000 range. Our core for this one is built as the foundation for a great balanced build. However, we will still cover some of our favorite top end spend ups in the premium position content.

Here’s a balanced core For DFS Basketball 10/20/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Point GuardD. Murray $6,800
Shooting GuardF. VanVleet $7,500
Small ForwardO. Anunoby $6,100
Power Forward   
Center   
GuardS. Gilgeous-Alexander $7,200
Forward   
Utility   

With 22 teams debuting tonight, we are looking for the teams that present a lot of value coming into the new season. The San Antonio Spurs are at the top of our list of teams to look out for, as veterans DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills have all left the team. The Spurs roster is left with a slew of young talent primed to step up. Dejounte Murray is very enticing coming into this season as he will be the clear first option for the Spurs. The fact that Murray is underpriced tonight at $6,800 makes him a smash play for us. Murray averaged 36.2 FPTS per game last season, and at 25 he has significantly improved every season of his career. We expect Murray to take a huge leap this year, and this price tag should rise fast. 

We just mentioned how we are looking at the Spurs coming into the season, it is a similar situation for the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors lost long time star point guard Kyle Lowry this offseason, and Pascal Siakam is injured for the start of the season. There is a huge opportunity for Raptors guys to do more, and they are all still priced like when Lowry and Siakam were on the floor. Fred VanVleet is another priority for us tonight at $7,500. The matchup works here as well, as the Wizards were one of the best teams to attack for DFS last year. VanVleet averaged 40 FPTS per game last season, and that was as one of three stars on the floor. VanVleet will have to do a lot for the Raptors offence tonight, and at this price it’s a no brainer. 

Staying on the topic of the Raptors, the guy who we think will share the responsibility with VanVleet is OG Anunoby. If you have paid any attention to the Toronto Raptors offseason or preseason, it is clear Anunoby will be taking a much bigger role this year. At 24 years old, Anunoby has upped his offensive role significantly ever year. This season, we are expecting to see a significant leap with Lowry and Siakam both off the floor. Anunoby will be one of the two leading options for the Raptors, while he was the fourth option last year. Anunoby is priced for his production last season at $6,100, however if he proves to do any more this season he will be far too cheap.

The reason we really like the balanced build tonight is all the underpriced midrange studs we have on this slate. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at $7,200 is a perfect example. SGA was fantastic when he played last season averaging 41 FPTS, so this is another price tag that doesn’t make much sense. At 23 years old, we expect SGA to be even better this season. He could easily be $2,000 more expensive in a few weeks. The Thunder play the Jazz tonight who are a good defensive squad, but they play at a fast pace, so we are not worried about matchup. It is very hard to include multiple of SGA, Murray and VanVleet with a stars and scrubs build, so we will be a lot of balanced lineups.

Here’s a balanced core For DFS Basketball 10/20/21 (using FanDuel Values)

Point GuardD. Murray $7,700
Point GuardF. VanVleet $8,800
Shooting GuardO. Anunoby $7,400
Shooting GuardS. Gilgeous-Alexander $7,600
Small Forward   
Small Forward   
Power Forward   
Power Forward   
Center   
 

Now what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• Priorities at every position
• Some general strategy for the night
High end studs for a stars and scrubs lineup
• More priorities from the Spurs and the Raptors

Point Guard

Spencer Dinwiddie – PG ($4,900 DK) The Washington Wizards have a lack of ball handlers with Russell Westbrook off to the Lakers. Dinwiddie is stepping in as the primary point guard for the Wizards, and this price point is not going to last. Dinwiddie was averaging over 20 points and almost seven assists before his injuries, and we know the role is there for him on Washington. Dinwiddie should hit value here easily, and he has some serious upside.

Shooting Guard 

Lonnie Walker IV – ($4,000 DK) Walker is another young player who has shown significant improvement in every season of his career. There are a lot less players ahead of him in the Spurs rotation this year, so we expect his 25 minutes to go up by a decent margin. Walker averaged 18.7 FPTS per game last year, but it is reasonable to expect him to take a solid leap. If that is the case, he is going to be too cheap at $4,000.

Small Forward 

Michael Porter Jr. – (6,400 DK) Porter looks fantastic at this price, and he fits perfectly into our balanced lineup. Porter is priced well for the 33.6 FPTS per game he averaged last year, and we saw him play at a very high level at the end of the season. Porter is only 23 and took a massive leap last season, while he is expected to produce at an even higher rate this year. Porter has some fantastic upside, and it is very likely he costs us well over $7,000 for most of the season. 

Brandon Ingram – (7,700 Dk) Ingram is certainly priced fairly here, as he averaged 39.7 FPTS per game last season. What makes the play really enticing however, is the fact that Zion Williamson is out to start the season. Ingram is going to be the clear first option for the Pelicans, and we should see him do a lot more then when Williamson played last season. Ingram is a fantastic volume scorer, and he has some amazing upside in this spot. It is an extra bonus that his sub $8,000 price tag fits well with our balanced theme.

Power Forward 

Scottie Barnes – (3,400 DKDrafting rookies early on in DFS is always an interesting concept. On one hand there is an obvious risk to taking a guy in his first ever game. However, we have the chance to get some cheap players who could have significant roles on there teams. It is a bit surprising that Barnes is this cheap here, as it has been clear the Raptors plan on giving him a significant role. The absence of Pascal Siakam makes us a lot more confident that we could see Barnes get the start here. If that is the case, we like giving him a chance for value at this price.

Keldon Johnson – (5,100 DK) We were not lying when we said we were all over the Spurs and Raptors for tonight’s slate. Johnson is in the perfect position to take a step up from the 24.8 FPTS he averaged last season. Johnson is coming into his third season, and he should be one of the top usage guys for San Antonio. With DeRozan and Gay gone he is one of the only forwards the Spurs have and should be playing a ton of minutes. Johnson is in a MIP candidate type position this season, so the DFS value is quite high early on.

Center

Jakob Poeltl – (5,000 DK) Poeltl became a significant DFS threat once Aldridge left, and he became the starting center. We Saw his price rise above $6,000 towards the end of the season, so we really like him at this price point. Poeltl is still improving on offense and his minutes should be more solid then ever. As an old fashioned big man, it is quite easy to hit value at $5,000.

General strategy 

Just like last night, the main thing we are waiting on is starting lineups. We have eleven games tonight, so there is going to be a lot of news to keep track of. As we saw with Bruce Brown last night, it is a lot safer going with value options that are starting. With this many teams playing, it should be easy to find cheap options who get the start where you need to. This is a good slate to try multiple lineups, as there are a lot of different guys who can go off tonight. If you’re just sticking to one lineup, go for guys who are underpriced for what they should be averaging this year. That is the type of player we tried to highlight throughout our picks.  

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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