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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Advice for October 19, 2021

Giannis Antetokounmpo
LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 29: Milwaukee Bucks Forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) reacts to a call during a NBA game between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Los Angeles Clippers on March 29, 2021 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. The game was played without fans due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

No more preseason, no more summer league, NBA basketball is finally back with tonight’s double header. As always, we got you covered with our core plays and lineup support at every position. There is a ton of opportunity to find value early in the season if you know where to look, as pricing is going to be all over the place. Furthermore, a lot of guys have switched teams over the offseason so certain players will have much bigger roles. For tonight’s slate, a bunch of players are way too cheap, but well get too that more in our core plays. We only have two games two choose from tonight, but there are a ton of options at the top of the slate given the star studded matchups. The Brooklyn Nets are visiting the Bucks in Milwaukee and later the Los Angeles Lakers host the Golden State Warriors. We have the perfect combination of value and superstars tonight to construct a fantastic lineup.

Here’s a balanced core For DFS Basketball 10/19/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Point GuardR. Westbrook $8,600
Shooting GuardJ. Harden $9,300
Small ForwardB. Brown $3,600
Power ForwardC. Anthony $3,900
Center   
Guard   
Forward   
Utility   

A few of the studs on tonight’s slate are priced strangely cheap for how productive they have always been as players. Russell Westbrook was one of the two highest scoring DFS producers last season, and he is starting out the season at only $8,600. It is likely Wesbrook is not doing quite as much as he did last year with the Wizards, but he has not been a sub $9,000 guy for about a decade. We expect Westbrook to play a full minutes load opening night, and the Warriors were a good matchup last season. Westbrook has fantastic upside, and he feels very safe at this price point.

Our favorite spend up option for tonight’s slate is definitely James Harden. Harden has a fantastic price tag at $9,300 and we expect to see him take on a huge role. Kyrie Irving remains inactive for the Nets, which leaves them without many capable ball handlers. We know Harden is not shy to take on his fair share of offence, and the Nets need him to do a lot here. We would be looking at Harden at any price, and he is at least $1,000 to cheap. Harden can fill up the stat sheet with crazy scoring or assist nights, and he is a constant triple double threat. James Harden playing without many other playmakers is a thing to behold, and that is what we expect to see tonight.

If you are looking for value on this slate, look no further than the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are looking thin with the Irving situation going on, so pretty much everyone who is established on the team should see solid floor time. On DraftKings, all the Nets players are dirt cheap outside of Harden, Kevin Durant and Joe HarrisBruce Brown feels like one of the safest value options on this slate at only $3,600. Brown had a significant role for the Nets last year, and we routinely saw him play big minutes in when one of the big three was absent. Brown looks even better if he gets the start, but he looks great either way. Brown averaged over 20 FPTS for the Nets last season, and he was consistently above $4,000. With Irving out, there is no reason to expect him not to see a larger role.

There are quite a few plays under $4,000 that we can look at here. One guy who caught our eye wasCarmelo Anthony at $3,900. Like a lot of the value options for this one, we are waiting to see if Anthony ends up in the starting lineup. If he starts, he is an easy play for us as he is a solid DFS producer and is priced great. We still like Anthony if he comes off the bench, as he should be in for some solid run regardless. Anthony averaged 22.3 FPTS with Portland last year, and he should have a nice role with this Portland roster. We really like the superstars on this slate, so we like building a roster with a few of these super cheap plays. 

Here’s a balanced core For DFS Basketball 10/19/21 (using FanDuel Values)

Point GuardR. Westbrook $9,500
Point Guard   
Shooting GuardJ. Harden $10,600
Shooting GuardJ. Harris $4,300
Small Forward   
Small Forward   
Power ForwardG. Antetokounmpo $11,000
Power Forward   
Center   

For those of us who play both DraftKings and FanDuel, there are sometimes plays who are unviable on site and very strong on the other. Joe Harris is not too interesting where he is priced on DK, but he is one of our favorite value options on FD. We already mentioned that the Nets do not have a lot of options without Irving, and Harris is certainly their highest usage guy outside of Durant and Harden. Harris has some great upside if his threes are falling, and he is relatively safe at this price. Looking at players priced ahead of him here, Harris is a no brainer.

Now what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• Priorities at every position
• Some general strategy for the night
 More underpriced studs we have our eyes on
• What to look out for as we get closer to lock

Point Guard

Jrue Holiday – PG ($7,000 DK) We mentioned in our core plays that some guys are wildly underpriced to start the season. That is the only way to describe a $7,000 Jrue Holiday as we know he usually settles around $1,000 more. Holiday averaged 38,4 FPTS per game on the season last year, and he has produced at a high level for years. Match up wise, there is a lot too like as well here against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets had a weak defense last year and they played at a fast pace. This should be a nice matchup for Holiday and his price tag allows us to fit him alongside three top end superstars.

Shooting Guard 

Patty Mills – ($3,700 DK) There is a lot to like from Brooklyn for DFS tonight, as everyone is cheap despite Irving’s absence. Mills is the only true guard the Nets have after Harden, so we expect to see a lot of floor time. This is a fantastic price tag for Mills, even if he is not the most productive DFS producer. We saw Mills playing in the Spurs heavy guard rotation last year, there should be a lot more opportunity on the Nets. We really like designing a build with a lot of these sub $4,000 guys, so we can afford Holiday and three superstars.

Small Forward 

Kevin Durant – (9,900 DK) Although we prefer getting to Harden at $600 less, Durant also looks like a great spend up option. We know he is going to be putting a ton of shots up as him and Harden are the only volume scorers. Durant is more expensive than some of the other stars tonight, but his price tag is still nice relative to where he is usually priced. The Bucks played at a fast pace last year and the game promises to be competitive, so we like the matchup. However, it is not easy to fit Durant with some of the other stud options we have.

Kent Bazemore – (3,600 Dk) Bazemore is another value option who has a price tag that cannot be ignored for tonight. Especially given the fact that he could be playing a significant role for the Lakers. If Bazemore gets the start tonight, he looks great for value as a cheap starter. However, if Bazemore does not get the start we would probably look at who starts in his place.

Power Forward 

Anthony Davis – (8,800 DKInjuries contributed to a somewhat disappointing fantasy season for Davis last year, as he averaged 41.2 FPTS per game. However, at this price we are very interested in taking the chance on Davis. He is an absolute fantasy machine, and his lower then normal FPTS per game was partially due to playing hurt. Davis can easily be the top performer on any slate and getting a superstar under $9,000 leave a lot of salary on the table.

Paul Millsap – (3,800 DK) We are talking about a lot of value plays in this price range so you can easily follow our stars and scrubs core for the day. Millsap also has a lot of upside of his own given the Nets team he is playing on. The Nets are drastically low on big men, and we could see a nice role for Millsap. Millsap averaged 19.9 FPTS last year playing behind a stacked Denver frontcourt. If Millsap gets the start tonight, he is a priority for us.

Center

LaMarcus Aldridge – (3,900 DK) Injuries have threatened Aldridge’s place in the league over the past year, but he has found his way back to the Nets. Aldridge was an all star level producer a few years ago, and he can still be extremely productive when he is on the court. The Nets could use Aldridge at center here, which would make him one of our favorite value options on the slate. However, if Aldridge does not start we would be a bit concerned about his minutes.

General strategy 

As we have eluded throughout the article the most important thing to keep an eye on leading up to lock is going to be starting lineups. Given that it is the first game of the season, we have no idea who some teams are going to start. Especially a team that saw massive roster changes like the Lakers. We mentioned a slew of our favorite value options, whoever starts among them will be absolute priorities. One of the challenges with this slate is that all the superstars look so good it may be difficult to decide who to go with. We like Harden the most, and Westbrook is too cheap for his level of production. The one thing we know for sure is that we like the stars and scrubs for this slate. There are enough stars playing it is likely you will need three or even four of them, and all the fantastic value we have allows us not too compromise with our budget guys. Remember this is the first night of the season, and not always the best time to bet your whole bankroll.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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