Tonight, is one of the smaller DFS slates of the season, with only three NBA games on the main slate. The Warriors are going to be without Steph Curry tonight, so we know our focus will be homed in on the Warriors. We also have another Sacramento Kings – Houston Rockets matchup, which will be a huge priority for us tonight. We have some really strong plays with only three games, so our standards for value are higher than you might expect.
The Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets matchup was a priority for us last time out, especially on the Kings side. Everyone we went to at the top end crushed from Sacramento, starting with De’Aaron Fox. Fox went for 49.5 minutes on 18 shot attempts, which is not surprising given the pace Houston plays at. Fox has been priced up, but he is still cheap at $8,100. We expect another strong night with this matchup, and we do not have a ton of stars to choose from tonight.
Our favorite value option on the last slate was Jordan Poole as we expected him to rejoin the starting unit in Klay Thompson’s absence. Thompson will be back tonight, but Curry will be sidelined which opens an even bigger role for Poole. Poole was great last time with 32.25 FPTS on 19 shot attempts. He should do even more as the primary point guard tonight, so he is way too cheap at $5,400.
Here’s a Fade DFS Basketball 1/16/22 (using DraftKings Values)
Coach Steve Kerr announced he expect Klay Thompson’s minutes limit to rise to around 24 tonight. That mixed with the fact that Curry is out is likely going to land some higher ownership on Thompson. For us, we are still fading Thompson at this number of minutes, as he would need a special shooting night to hit value. He has also seen massive usage with Curry in, so there is not much room for him to really shoot the ball more in his time on the floor.
Here Is What Your Get If You Subscribe For $15 Per Month or $99 For The Year…
• A cheap guard with massive upside.
• More priorities from the Sacramento Kings.
• A stud who looks great on the Warriors tonight.
• Our approach to Cash games vs. GPP’s here.
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Jalen Green – ($5,000 DK) The point guard position is a bit rough around the edges tonight once you go past Fox, so Fox is the guy we will use for Cash games here. However, for tournaments we have a ton of upside from both pieces in the Houston Rockets backcourt., Green is a bit too expensive for how generally unproductive he is, but he is cheap for his upside. Green always takes a ton of shot attempts and usually shoots badly. However, there is always upside he puts together a more efficient performance, which could be huge on a small slate like tonight.
Buddy Hield – ($5,700 DK) Hield has not consistently been the producer we expected him to grow into over the past few years. However, he is always cheap for his upside as he can have some big scoring nights. Hield did well in this matchup against the Rockets last time, scoring 32 FPTS. He did not shoot very well last game, so there is upside to see him go for a bigger night tonight.
Andrew Wiggins – ($6,600 DK) Wiggins was solid last night with 36.5 FPTS, and he looks a lot better tonight with Curry sidelined. Everyone on this team must create a lot more offensively when Curry is out, and Wiggins becomes one of the two top options next to Poole. Wiggins has amazing upside here, and we never expect a bad game when he is looking at such high usage.
Harrison Barnes – ($6,100 DK) Barnes was another one of our favorite plays last time out, and he still looks great with the same matchup. He went for 35.5 FPTS in the last game, and we know his upside is bigger than that. The Houston Rockets have been the matchup that keeps giving this year, so we want as many Kings guys as we can get.
Christian Wood – ($8,000 DK) Wood was our priority out of Houston last game, and we still like him here despite the significant price bump. Wood only played 26 minutes with foul trouble last game, and he still managed to go for 43 FPTS in this matchup. The fast-paced Kings allow Wood to play the kind of offense he really does well with, and he can go for monstrous nights.
For Cash games tonight almost all our plays will come out of either the Warriors or the Sacramento – Houston matchup. Poole, Fox, and Barnes are our top locks for Cash games here, as they all are too cheap for what we expect them to do with tonight’s situations. Bigger tournaments are where we will look to get away from our favorite teams, as it will be tough getting different with the Warriors and the Kings. Some GPP targets for us tonight are Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Mike Conley, and Nikola Jokic.
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