We have nine games to breakdown for NBA DFS tonight, and there is a lot to talk about for this one. We have a ton of value across this slate, as a few teams are coming into the night with massive injuries. Our priority for value is the Houston Rockets guard rotation, or what’s left of it with Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. sidelined. We also have a ton of value from the Miami Heat and the Phoenix Suns tonight, as Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo are all sidelined.
|Point Guard||A. Brooks||$3,400|
As we mentioned we have ton of value from the Houston guards tonight. With Green and Porter out a few of the budget plays are in for a lot of floor time. Armoni Brooks looks fantastic tonight at this price, as he has already been playing a nice role without Green. Brooks played 30 minutes last game when Porter got hurt, and he went for 32.5 FPTS. We expect him to play somewhere around 30 minutes again tonight, making him one of our favorite budget options at $3,400.
We have a lot of great budget plays tonight, but some of the stars at the top end look too expensive. One guy who stands out where he is priced is Joel Embiid at $10,500, as there is no reason for him to be $1,000 cheaper than the other top plays on this slate. Embiid went for 56.5 FPTS last game, and he showed his upside with a 70 FPT performance. Embiid is just as good a DFS producer as anyone playing tonight, and the price really doesn’t reflect it.
Here’s a Fade DFS Basketball 12/3/21 (using DraftKings Values)
At this point Paul George is a very easy fade for us. It is strange he has not gotten cheaper on DraftKings, as his production clearly does not merit his $10,300 price tag. George fails to hit value by a decent margin often, and most of his good games are simply mediocre because of how expensive he is. George was our fade at $10,200 last time out, and his 35 FPT performance granted another price bump.
Now what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• A high upside guard from the Miami Heat.
• Another one of our favorite value options from Houston.
• A star guard who has huge upside tonight.
• Our strategy for Cash games vs. Tournaments.
Chris Paul– PG ($8,400 DK) Paul was slightly disappointing last time out with 35.3 FPTS, but we really like getting back to him in this spot against Golden State. Paul typically sees much higher usage when Booker is off the floor, and we expect him to take over with a competitive matchup. It is hard to imagine the Suns keeping it close with the Warriors tonight if Paul does not go for a big night, and he can really explode in this spot.
Tyler Herro – ($7,500 DK) Herro looks fantastic tonight with Butler and Adebayo sidelined, as well as a matchup with the Indiana Pacers. Herro only went for 30.25 FPTS last time out, but he showed fantastic usage with 23 shot attempts. We expect Herro gets up a ton of shots again in this spot, and his upside is massive if he gets hot.
Eric Gordon – ($4,900 DK) Gordon is way too cheap given the role we expect him to play with Green and Porter out. He played 32 minutes last game, which is right around what we expect to see from him in this spot tonight. If he can put together a good shooting night, he is going to be allowed a ton of field goal attempts here, so the upside is pretty ridiculous for this price.
Cameron Johnson– ($4,200 DK) The Phoenix Suns are in a very similar situation to what we saw them in last night, as everyone looks pretty good with Booker out of the mix. We saw a nice night from Johnson yesterday, as he went for 33.5 FPTS in 27 minutes. We expect Johnson continues to play a bit bigger of a role with Booker out, so he offers nice value until that reflects in his price.
Dewayne Dedmon – ($4,800 DK) Dedmon has seen a massive $1,700 price jump since last time out, but he is still too cheap for his role in the starting spot without Adebayo. He smashed in the starting spot last game, going for 39.25 FPTS. We don’t expect him to show that upside very time, but he does have a nice floor when he is playing these many minutes.
There is a lot to like tonight, and by the time lock comes around we could have even more injury news. For Cash games tonight we like getting to Embiid, Paul, and Herro at the Top end. Mixed with the value plays that we have laid out. We like trying to get exposure to as many different guys as possible for tournaments here. We will be getting to a lot of the Suns value for GPP’s here as we expect it be less owned then the Rockets value.
Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.
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