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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Advice for December 29, 2021

LeBron Lives In Brentwood
March 10, 2020, Los Angeles, California, U.S: Los Angeles Lakers LeBron James (23) passes the ball during an NBA basketball game between Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets, Tuesday, March 10, 2020, in Los Angeles. (Photo by Ringo Chiu/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire)

There is a lot going on tonight across nine games, as we have a lot to like for DFS. There are some fantastic plays tonight at both the top and bottom end of this slate, so we are looking at a stars and scrubs build here. We have quite a bit of value available, as a few teams remain absolutely gutted. The Miami Heat are probably our favorite team to get to here, with a bunch of guys out and a fantastic matchup. 

Here’s Two Core Plays For DFS Basketball 12/29/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Point GuardD. White $6,800
Shooting GuardC. Martin $3,900
Small Forward   
Power Forward   
Center   
Guard   
Forward   
Utility   

The Miami Heat just cannot catch a break as Gabe Vincent and Max Strus have both been recently added to the health and safety protocols. We expect that Martin starts here, and he should be in for some nice run with all the guys out. Martin has shown real upside lately, going for 49 FPTS a few games ago. At $3,900 we expect he plays enough minutes to crush value, and there is the chance he shows us a big night.

The Spurs have been without two Dejounte Murray for two games now, and we really like Derrick White in this spot. White was limited, as he only played 16 minutes in the first game without Murray. However, he showed the kind of production we would expect last game with 43.5 FPTS. We expect him to have the ball in his hands a ton and take some high usage here, so we think he is too cheap at $6,800.

Here’s a Fade DFS Basketball 12/29/21 (using DraftKings Values)

A few of the studs tonight seem too expensive given their production over the season. One guy who stands out as a fade for us is Julius Randle who is coming in at $10,800 here. Randle has not gone for 50 FPTS once in his last ten games, and 50 FPTS is mediocre at best given the price. It is very likely he goes for around 40 FPTS, which really hurts us when we are paying this much.

Now, what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• A cheap guard who is one of his team’s only options here.
• A lock for us from the Miami Heat.
• Our favorite superstar to spend up for tonight.
• One budget center who looks fantastic given his team’s situation.

Sign up today for $99 (for six months) here 

Point Guard 

Coby White – PG ($4,500 DK) The Chicago Bulls are missing their two usual starting guards, as Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are both sidelined here. White should start for the Bulls, and he could play a lot of minutes if this stays close. At $4,500 there is a lot of upside if he can put together a good shooting night. We will look elsewhere for Cash games, but the variance we get from White is perfect for tournaments.  

Shooting Guard 

Tyler Herro – ($6,900 DK) We just got the news that Jimmy Butler will be joining Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo on the sidelines, which makes Herro a lock here. The Heat have no other offensive initiators left, so Herro is going to have to shoot the air out of the rock here. We know Herro has fantastic upside, and this is the perfect situation for him to go for a big game.

Small Forward 

Duncan Robinson  ($5,000 DK) Robinson is always a streaky producer, as his FPTS come mostly from three-point shots. However, with all the injuries for Miami, we expect Robinson plays close to 40 minutes here. There is no doubt he gets the chance to shoot the ball more as much as he wants, so he has a lot of upside here. 

Power Forward  

LeBron James – ($11,800 DK) The Lakers have been without Anthony Davis for a little stretch of games here and James has been the best DFS producer in the NBA. James has gone well over 60 FPTS in four of his past five games, and we saw him go for 72.75 FPTS last time out. James started at center last time, and we like him even more if that continues. Regardless, he is a priority here until Davis comes back.

Center

Omer Yurtseven – ($4,600 DK) The Miami Heat are missing their usual starting Center Bam Adebayo, and his backup Dwayne Dedmon. Yurtseven is the only big man left for Miami, so he has had to play some serious minutes lately. He has gone over 30 minutes in both of his last two games, scoring over 36 FPTS in both. The Heat do not have any option other than to continue playing Yurtseven massive run, so we love him at this price tag. 

General strategy 

We are interested to see what starting unit the Heat go with today, as any value plays that slip into the starting five will look pretty good. We must keep an eye on the news for that one, as it seems there is a chance that the game is postponed due to Miami not having enough guys. We are also interested if James starts at center again, but as we mentioned he looks good either way. Keep an eye on what else is announced here, as it is a good bet, we have more news to come. 

So, what did you think?

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