We have seven games to break down tonight, as the number of players sidelined in health and safety protocols continues to rise. There is a ton of value again tonight, as some teams are forced to play reserves for almost entire games. The teams that we are most focused on for tonight are the Minnesota Timberwolves, Atlanta Hawks, and Brooklyn Nets, but we have some priorities elsewhere as well. The Timberwolves are probably our number one priority, as they are without their entire big three in Karl – Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell. As a result, some of the role players from Minnesota are being asked to do way more than usual right now, and it does not reflect in their price tags.
|Point Guard||J. Harden||$11,200|
|Shooting Guard||M. Beasley||$6,200|
Our biggest lock for the Christmas day slate was James Harden, as we expect him to do just about everything with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving sidelined. Most of the superstars in the NBA also have covid right now, so there is not much competition for who we like at the very top end. Harden crushed on Christmas with 75.5 FPTS, as his usage was massive, and he always had the ball in his hands. We are expecting a similar situation tonight, and Harden stands out above the crowd as a producer in this spot.
We mentioned that we want to get a ton of exposure to the Minnesota Timberwolves here, and it all starts with Malik Beasley. Beasley is more expensive than usual at $6,200, but realistically he should probably be around $8,000 in this spot. Beasley played 43 minutes last time out and put up 25 shot attempts. The Timberwolves also had Russell active last game, so there are even less options after Beasley tonight. Beasley should see some monster usage again here, and he will absolutely explode if he has a good shooting night.
Here’s a Fade DFS Basketball 12/27/21 (using DraftKings Values)
It is not easy to find a fade tonight, as so many superstars are sidelined it makes the available ones look more viable. The stars that interest us the least here are the Chicago Bulls top end. These guys have been too expensive for a team with three cooks all season, and they have Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan both healthy. The big three of Vucevic, Lavine, and DeRozan do not present much upside when they are priced over $9,000.
Mike Conley– PG ($6,200 DK) Conley has been on an absolute tear lately scoring over 30 FPTS in four straight and going for 41.75 FPTS last game. Due to how hot he has been, it is hard not to like Conley with the news that Mitchell is going to be sidelined here. Whenever Mitchell is gone Conley takes much higher usage and has to set up his teammates at a higher rate.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – ($5,000 DK) Bogdanovic is one of our favorite options tonight, as he already looked good before we found out Delon Wright is also sidelined. Bogdanovic was disappointing last time out with 22.25 FPTS, but he shot 16 percent in 36 minutes. Bogdanovic showed us his floor last time and he was still ok at this price point. He probably starts at point tonight and holds the ball a lot more. Regardless, he is way too cheap for his upside in this spot.
Jaden McDaniels– ($5,100 DK) There is a lot to like out of Minnesota tonight, as we are seeing some lower usage role players must completely step up. Mcdaniels saw one of the biggest opportunities of the season last time out as he put up 18 attempts in 37 minutes. He was fantastic in that one, going over 40 FPTS. We expect him to have to do a lot again here, as the usage is going to have to go somewhere for this team.
Jalen McDaniels – ($3,700 DK) Not to be confused with our other forward play, McDaniels looks amazing for cheap value here. The Charlotte Hornets are thin on forwards here, to the point where we are expecting well over 30 minutes out of McDaniels. He has already been great recently, going over 20 FPTS in three straight games. He has seen 26-28 minutes in each of those three games, and that was with Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington active. With both out McDaniels should see a much larger role, and he should prove far too cheap at $3,700.
Nicolas Claxton – ($4,900 DK) The center position looks weak tonight, so we are happy getting to a very safe Claxton play. Claxton has gone for over 27 FPTS in three straight games, which is great value for this price tag. We saw him play 32 minutes last game, and he went for 31 FPTS. If the Nets continue to play him that kind of floor time, it is going to be very easy for him to smash value.
There are a lot of different places to look for value tonight, so it is tough choosing only eight guys to commit to for a lineup. Our only real lock tonight is Harden, as none of the salary sponges look anywhere comparable to him. However, things are a lot more complicated at the bottom end. Our absolute priorities are the Hawks guards, and both McDaniels. Keep an eye on the news here, as it feels like a given some more variable names are added to the league’s health and safety protocols.
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