We hope everyone is having a great holiday season, as we have a messy boxing day slate to break down here. The conversation must start with the Toronto Raptors, who are probably hit worse by Covid than any team we have seen all year. On top of the Raptors missing each of their go-to starters and a few key bench pieces, they only have four actual NBA guys today. Chris Boucher, Svi Mykhailiuk, Yuta Watanabe, and Dalano Banton are the only Raptors tonight who did not just get pulled up from the g league. Even these four have all spent time with the Raptors 905 development team recently. These guys are still priced like scrubs, but they should be priced like bona fide studs given the situation. For our content today we will cover some of our favorite Raptors, but we will be sure to touch on value elsewhere in case this one is postponed.
As we mentioned if the Raptors game is not postponed, they will be our clear priority for value tonight. We do not even really know what this roster is going to look like, as they are still in the process of sorting out replacement guys. However, it is a good bet that the NBA guys who are healthy will all see massive opportunities. Svi Mykhailiuk is going to see a ton of minutes in the starting lineup, but what really makes him a priority is we expect him to be the Raptor’s first option on the perimeter here. Mykhailiuk is going to put up a ton of three’s and he will have the ball in his hands a lot. We cannot expect the production from guys like Mykhailiuk to be anywhere near where they usually produce, as this is one of the crazier injury situations you are ever going to see.
Boucher is the most dynamic player available for Toronto, and it really shouldn’t be a surprise if he has a career night in this spot. Boucher has great upside, and he is a good per-minute producer. We typically don’t see Boucher play massive minutes, but we do not expect that to remain the situation tonight. Boucher should see a ton of run in this spot, and he is a good bet to be Toronto’s first option. Boucher is a bit more expensive than usual at $5,800, but we would play him at $8,000 today.
Here’s a Fade DFS Basketball 12/26/21 (using DraftKings Values)
For our fade yesterday we discussed how there was a lot to pass on from Boston with the return of Jaylen Brown. We have a similar situation in Chicago tonight as Zach Lavine and others have cleared the league’s health protocols. The Bulls studs were already expensive when Lavine was sidelined, as we needed them to show their upside to hit value. Speaking of hitting value, it is not something Nikola Vucevic does very often. He has had one or two good games all season, and in every other outing, he has disappointed where he is priced. He is too expensive at $9,500, and his usage should be worse with some guys coming back.
Now, what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• One stud from Washington who looks fantastic given the team’s injuries.
• A cheap guard who should see a ton of floor time in this spot.
• Another priority from the Raptors.
• A back-up center who is stepping into the starting unit.
Spencer Dinwiddie – PG ($6,500 DK) The Washington Wizards have played a few games without Bradley Beal this season, and the production we have seen from Dinwiddie is jaw-dropping. Dinwiddie went for 53.75 FPTS without Beal last time out, and we saw him go for over 50 FPTS a few games in a row last time Beal was out. Dinwiddie takes very high usage in these spots, and the Wizards really lean on his playmaking. He should be over $8,000 in this spot, so we are going to play him a lot until either he is priced up or Beal clears protocols.
Frank Jackson – ($4,800 DK) The Detroit Pistons are another team that is absolutely gutted here. Jackson had to play 39 minutes last game, to go with 15 attempts from the field. He went for 31 FPTS last time out, which would be great at this price. Cory Joseph has been ruled out as well here, so Jackson is the only guard left for the Pistons. He should be in for 40 minutes here, which is all we need to know to love him in this spot.
Yuta Watanabe – ($4,700 DK) We are used to looking at Watanabe as a low usage role player, but that is not going to be the situation tonight. Like Mykhailiuk and Boucher, Watanabe could have the best game of his career if tonight’s action is not postponed. He is one of the top dogs out of what is left of the Raptors, and he should see much higher usage than normal. As a young athletic wing, Watanabe is the kind of player who can end up playing ridiculous minutes. That is exactly what we are expecting to see tonight.
Saddiq Bey – ($7,500 DK) Bey may seem expensive here, as he was priced under $5,000 a week or two ago. However, the Pistons have lost most of their team in health protocols, and Bey has been taking an increasingly large role. He has played over 35 minutes in five straight games, playing 43 minutes last time out. He went for 46.5 FPTS last time out, and the Pistons have more injuries for tonight. Bey is going to be asked to do a lot here, so we do not mind paying the premium to get to him.
Guillermo Hernangomez – ($4,900 DK) Hernangomez was a priority for us last time out once we got the news that Jonas Valanciunas would be sidelined. Hernangomez was good where he was priced last time with 24.5 FPTS, but we expect him to be a lot more productive given the opportunity. Hernangomez played 32 minutes last time out, shooting one for eleven from the field. If Hernangomez shoots any better, he should be able to crush value at this price.
We are waiting on a ton of news from Toronto tonight. Firstly, we must see if this game even happens, it could be postponed as the Raptors are missing so many guys. If the game does happen, Toronto will be our top priority for value tonight, and we will be playing multiple Raptors in all our lineups. We also must see who starts here. It is very likely the three guys we mentioned start, but it is a bit of a toss-up after that. Any of the new guys who start could present nice value, but they are not all available on the slate. Good luck with this one, and make sure to keep an eye on what news develops.
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