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NBA Basketball DFS Advice

NBA DFS Advice for December 18, 2021

Jrue Holiday
LOS ANGELES, CA - NOVEMBER 24: New Orleans Pelicans Guard Jrue Holiday (11) drives to the basket defended by Los Angeles Clippers Guard Paul George (13) during a NBA game between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Los Angeles Clippers on November 24, 2019 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

We have six games tonight, and there may be more guys sidelined than playing basketball. That is not something I have ever been able to say after years of playing NBA DFS. The value here is overwhelming, this is the best cheap value we have had available all season, so there is a lot of competition for our budget plays. The top-end looks a lot weaker than the budget plays, so the key to making money here will be finding spend-up options that land. 

Here’s Two Core Plays For DFS Basketball 12/18/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Point GuardJ. Holiday $8,200
Shooting Guard   
Small Forward   
Power Forward   
CenterR. Lopez $3,300
Guard   
Forward   
Utility   

Jrue Holiday is an absolute lock tonight, and he is easily the best play as there are more options at the bottom end than top tonight. We do not have the best spend-up options available, as most of the guys we would typically play for are in the league’s health and safety protocols. Holiday however really stands out at $8,200, as he will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo and likely Khris Middleton. Holiday went for 55 FPTS a few games ago, and we expect him to go for around 50 FPTS with the other Bucks studs out. Holiday is in a dream scenario tonight, so he is an easy lock with the other stars in uninteresting circumstances.

A few teams look ludicrous for value tonight, as the Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic, and Brooklyn Nets are all absolutely ransacked. The Magic probably look the best for value here, as they are not priced up at all from the absences. We have a few Magic guys close to the minimum price here, which should probably be in the $6,000 to $8,000 range with all these injuries. Robin Lopez is a wildly good value at $3,300 here, as we expect him to start and play over 30 minutes. Lopez went for 32 FPTS in 33 minutes last time out, and that is the type of production we expect to see with all these injuries. 

Here’s a Fade DFS Basketball 12/18/21 (using DraftKings Values)

It is hard to fade anyone tonight, as all the stars are too expensive, but the salary does not really matter on this slate. Anyone will be a good play if they go for over 45 FPTS, so we are looking to fade stars who consistently fall short of that type of production. One guy we are going to get away from here is Bradley Beal who has taken a big step down as a DFS producer. Beal has not had a good game in months, and he constantly finishes shy of 40 FPTS. Beal is priced at $9,600 here, so we can get to any other star on the slate over him easily.  

Now, what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• A stud guard with huge upside. 
• A few priorities value pieces from Orlando.
• A key spend-up option for us tonight.
• Some guys we like with the news about Golden State.

Sign up today for $99 (for six months) here 

Point Guard 

Darius Garland – PG ($8,300 DK) As we have mentioned the top-end plays don’t look great tonight, so we really like Garland despite his being a tad pricey. Garland has been a fantastic DFS producer since he took over as the lead guard for this team, and he is an upside guy. Garland has shown three 50 plus FPT performances over the past few weeks, and that kind of performance makes him a must-have on a slate like this. Garland is expensive for average production here, but that doesn’t really matter on a slate like this.  

Shooting Guard 

Gary Harris – ($4,300 DK) Harris is another guy from Orlando who looks amazing for the value. The Magic are missing almost all of their guards here, so he had to do a lot in the last game. He went for over 35 FPTS last time out for the Magic in 36 minutes. We expect a similar opportunity for him tonight, and he is way too cheap for the team’s current situation.

Small Forward 

Chuma Okeke   ($3,800 DK) Okeke is probably our favorite option from the Magic tonight, which is really saying a lot with all the value out of this team. Okeke went for a whopping 53.5 FPTS last time out, as he played 39 minutes. We do not expect to see quite the same upside from Okeke in this spot, but we do expect him to smash this $3,800 price tag.

Power Forward  

Jayson Tatum  ($9,800 DK) Tatum is a key play for tonight due to his raw FPT production. Most of the superstars on this slate are ruled out, so we don’t have too many options for guys who consistently go for 50 FPTS. Tatum has been hot lately, averaging 50.3 FPTS over the past ten days. He looks like the best play on the slate in terms of FPT production and with all the value tonight that is all that matters.

Center

Nemanja Bjelica – ($3,400 DK) It was just confirmed that the Warriors will be without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, and a few others tonight. All the remaining Warriors look fantastic, and you can go to anyone who starts for value. Bjeleica should see a massive boost tonight, as it would not be a surprise if he sees twice his normal minutes. Bjeleica is so cheap here, and a few of these Warriors are going to smash for sure. We are waiting on who starts here, as we will pass on Bjelica for a starter if he does not get the nod.

General strategy 

This is what a slate with TOO much value looks like. We would have a lot of value tonight if we were only able to take plays from one of the Magic, Bucks, Nets, or Warriors. However, with all these teams to choose from there are a lot of guys who would typically locks we have to leave on the table. We are interested too see who starts for the Warriors, as guys like Damion Lee, Bjelica, and Juan Toscano-Anderson can all explode in this spot. The Warriors and Magic are probably our priorities for budget options, so that is where we will look for value in Cash. There are a lot of places to go in tournaments tonight. One thing we will mention is you won’t have to worry much about being contrarian here, as some strong plays will be surprisingly under-owned. Good luck tonight, and keep an eye on the news coming in. 

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