We have five games on tonight’s NBA DFS slate, and we are very happy the slates are getting back to normal size. The first thing that must be mentioned for this one is the injury news, as there is a ton of huge absences for only five games. Two of the league’s most impactful producers are sidelined tonight, as James Harden and Luka Doncic will both sit here. We have a ton of value from the Nets and Mavericks with the injuries, so it won’t be hard finding salary tonight. We also have some great plays from the Detroit Pistons, as there is a Jerami Grant-sized hole that needs filling.
|Shooting Guard||J. Brunson||$5,300|
|Small Forward||K. Durant||$11,000|
If you don’t know to look at Jalen Brunson when Doncic is out, you are probably very new to NBA DFS. Brunson plays a star-level offensive role when Doncic sits, as we know his price rises close to $8,000 when Doncic is sidelined for a string of games. The Mavericks have a fantastic matchup against the Thunder, but that is hardly relevant when Brunson is so underpriced. The Mavs could have the worst matchup in the NBA, and he would still be the most chalk play on the slate. Brunson is an absolute lock for Cash games, and we are going to have a ton of him in our tournament lines as well.
After hearing that James Harden was not going to play tonight, one naturally thinks of Kevin Durant. Durant is averaging 49 FPTS, and he consistently hits mediocre value for his price. However, he is going to have to shoot the air out of the ball for Brooklyn tonight. If Durant takes 30 shots that should surprise no one. The Nets have a nice matchup against the Pistons here, so everything is lined up for a big night from Durant. Both Durant and Brunson will be high-owned, but fading these guys is not how you want to get different with your lineup.
Here’s a Fade DFS Basketball 12/12/21 (using DraftKings Values)
Anthony Davis was out last nighttime, and it still didn’t do anything for Russell Westbrooks production. Westbrook is not the dominant ball-handler for this team when LeBron James plays, so he is way too expensive at $10,500. Westbrook has only had one good game when James played this year, and that was the triple overtime fiasco against the Kings. Westbrook is an easy fade for us here, as he should not be over $8,000 with James on the floor.
Now, what do you get if you sign up now for $99?
• A cheap guard who should see a ton of usage tonight.
• A high upside option from the Dallas Mavericks.
• A cheap forward who has the potential to smash tonight.
• A stud center with a dream matchup.
Patty Mills – PG ($4,900 DK) Mills was already playing a massive role for this Nets team, as they are missing Kyrie Irving and Joe Harris. With Harden joining the sidelines tonight, Mills is in for a massive role. He should see some great usage in over 30 minutes tonight, so his upside is fantastic. If Mills has a good shooting night he can absolutely explode here, as he is the Nets first option for guard play.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,500 DK) As a shooter, Hardaway always relies on hitting his shots to go for a good DFS performance. However, with Doncic out of the mix, we know that Hardaway is going to have all the opportunity in the world. Hardaway has fantastic upside, and it looks a lot better tonight. His floor is a bit low for Cash games, but he is an absolute priority in tournaments.
Saddiq Bey – ($4,800 DK) Bey has been very disappointing recently, as he is averaging only 21.5 FPTs over the past ten days. Bey has consistently shot terribly from the floor, which has led to his being so much cheaper than was expected before the season. We like taking on a chance on Bey tonight, as the role we expect to see from him with Grant out is immense. Even if we see another awful shooting night, Bey could still easily hit value in this spot.
Kristaps Porzingis – ($8,000 DK) Porzingis looks fantastic with Doncic out, even at this beefed-up price tag. Porzingis has stepped up his production lately, even when Doncic has been on the floor. He has been the high usage leading option he was expected to be for Dallas, and he has shown a lot of upside lately. We expect to see him take a ton of shots with Doncic off the floor, and he could really crush in this matchup against OKC.
Jonas Valanciunas – ($8,400 DK) This is a fair price point for Valanciunas with how good his upside has been, so we are interested in this matchup. The San Antonio Spurs have evolved from a slow defensive dynamo to a fast-paced dream matchup. We have had a ton of success this season targeting the Spurs for DFS matchups, as they are playing some of the fastest basketball in the NBA right now. Valanciunas could show one of his big nights in this spot, and we have the value here to pay up for him.
The first thing we must mention here is to watch for news. Covid is ravaging the league right now, so we expect a ton of news to come out every day. We already have a ton of value for this slate, so the key will be deciding who stands out the most. For Cash games Brunson and Durant are going to be our absolute locks here. We will be using a ton of Brooklyn value in general for Cash, as Mills and Cameron Thomas are both priorities. For tournaments, all those guys will be key as well, but we can spread ownership out a little bit more. We don’t have a lot of questionable tags right now, but anything could happen with how the league has been going.
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