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NASCAR DFS Advice

NASCAR DFS Picks for the Geico 500 on April 25, 2021

Aric Almirola
RICHMOND, VA - APRIL 18: Aric Almirola (10) Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Mustang Smithfield entering turn 3 during the NASCAR Cup Series Toyota Owners 400 on April 18, 2021, at the Richmond International Raceway in Richmond, VA. (Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire)

Some might say that Superspeedway events can be an absolute nightmare to predict, and while that may be somewhat true, I don’t think that is entirely true. There are a lot of good drivers competing this coming Sunday and I believe that I have picked out a winning line for you. As we head into Talladega racing week, there are quite a few value drivers that you can pick to build that winning lineup. Let’s now take a deep dive into who I think you can insert into your lineup for the Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on 04/25/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Driver #1Ryan Blaney $ 10,100 
Driver #2Aric Almirola $ 8,700 
Driver #3   
Driver #4Kurt Busch $ 8,300 
Driver #5  $ 7,600 
Driver #6   

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on 04/25/2021 (Fanduel Values)

Driver #1Ryan Blaney $ 13,500 
Driver #2   
Driver #3Aric Almirola $ 12,000 
Driver #4  $ 8,000 
Driver #5   

Ryan Blaney

Coming in as one of the most expensive drivers this week on both platforms is Ryan Blaney. Blaney has won two of the last six races at Talladega while also adding four top 20 finishes. A lot of people are always high on Team Penske Fords on Superspeedways and well they tend not to disappoint. Team Penske has three of the last six wins. 2021 has been another great year for Blaney so far. Blaney got his first win of the season at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago. Blaney has also added another top-five finish and four top 10 finishes while leading 218 laps. I like Blaney near the start of the pack where I think he can jump to a lead early and lead a lot of laps. He is a lap leader and fastest lap play this week for me. I will focus on point differential points with other drivers in my lineup. 

Aric Almirola

There really hasn’t been someone so unlucky in the last two Superspeedway races then Aric Almirola. Early wrecks have been his crutch as of late. If Almirola can avoid disaster and finish this race, he will be in a very good place DFS wise. Outside of his recent blunders Almirola has been outstanding at Talladega. Almirola leads all drivers with eight top 10 finishes and an average finishing position of 10.5. His three top-five finishes are tied for second most in the series along with Chase Elliot, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Joey Logano. Almirola is going to start this race in the 14thposition which puts him in the mix to potentially get to the front of the pack. You know he will be driving a fast Stewart Haas racing car for this race. No reason he cannot win this weekend. 

Kurt Busch

Few drivers have as much experience in this race as Kurt Busch. This will be the 41st time that Busch has raced at Talladega in his career where he has eight top-five finishes, 21 top 10 finishes, and has led 282 laps. Busch is always on my dark horse value list each week when I am trying to find some good value. By starting 15th this race Busch offers the fact that he has a lot of experience at this superspeedway. In the last three years Busch has one top-five and three top 10 finishes. If he can crack the top five this week, he will be in for some serious point differential points. 

Now what do you get if you sign up now?
• Get 7-days for free and all-access for all sports for $99 per year after 
• Our favorite value plays for this week.
• A cheap driver with an excellent record at Talladega.

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on 04/25/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Driver #1Ryan Blaney $ 10,100 
Driver #2Aric Almirola $ 8,700 
Driver #3Ricky Stenhouse Jr $ 8,500 
Driver #4Kurt Busch $ 8,300 
Driver #5Ryan Newman $ 7,600 
Driver #6Ryan Preece $ 6,400 

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on 04/25/2021 (Fanduel Values)

Driver #1Ryan Blaney $ 13,500 
Driver #2Joey Logano $ 13,000 
Driver #3Aric Almirola $ 12,000 
Driver #4Ryan Preece $ 8,000 
Driver #5Justin Haley $ 3,500 

Joey Logano

This is an easy pick this week. I know that some people always choose to fade on the two front row drivers on Superspeedways due to how chaotic they are but if Joey Logano can grab the lead from the jump there may be no one that can catch him. No active driver has led as many laps at Talladega as Logano has with 397. That is 50 more then the next best Denny Hamlin. Honestly this week is a toss-up on whether you would prefer Hamlin or Logano. I am picking Logano due to Team Penske’s recent dominance at the track. So far in 2021 Logano has been great, he has one win, four top five finishes, six top 10 finishes and has led 314 laps. Logano is really showing that he is a top five driver this year. My prediction is that Logano finishes this race with the most laps led and finishes with the most fantasy points. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Now here is a driver who excels at Talladega, I would even go on to say that Talladega is by far Ricky Stenhouse Jr’s best track. In 15 career races Stenhouse has one win, six top-five finishes, nine top 10 finishes, 11 top 20 finishes and has led 94 laps. You cannot really go wrong with picking a guy who has finished in the top 10 in 60% of his races at a track. Recently, in the last three years Stenhouse has been just as successful. He has three top-five finishes and four top 10 finishes. Stenhouse starts in an excellent spot this weekend from a DFS perspective as he starts 17th. Stenhouse will be able to compete for excellent point differential points and even potentially for another top-five finish. 

Ryan Newman

Following the drivers named Ryan trend so far, this week is last year’s big story from the Daytona 500. In the Daytona 500 last year Ryan Newman was right in the mix on the final two laps and had the lead before contact with Ryan Blaney put an end to Newman’s day. In his career, Newman has been among the best to drive at Talladega where he has seven top-five finishes, 16 top 10 finishes, and has led 89 laps. Newman ended up finishing the second 2020 Talladega race in sixth. I like Newman this week and at his $ 7,600 price as he provides significant value. A pick like Newman this week gives you the flexibility to get some bigger names into your lineup. Plus, as a bonus you can feel comfortable with a driver starting 28th. Where you can only, for the most part go up. 

Ryan Preece

This driver is starting to develop into an excellent sleeper pick at Superspeedways. Ryan Preece has quietly put together a string of good performances together at Daytona and Talladega. In four career race sat Talladega, Preece has an astounding 11.50 average finish, and at a speedway that is as unpredictable as this one that is no small feat. In four races, Preece has one top-five finish, two top 10 finishes and has finished top 20 in all four. If you include Daytona those number shoot up to four top 10 finishes. Another great thing about Preece is that he has gained on average 8.3 spots on Superspeedways. Add all of that up with his starting position of 29th and Ryan Preece could be in for another top 20 or better day. 

Justin Haley

I was a little surprised when I saw Justin Haley’s value this week. I mean he has only won two of the last three Xfinity Series races at Talladega, that’s an accomplishment worthy of anything. Now I know Haley does not have a top five finish this year but on Superspeedways, he is a different driver. Just remember that Haley won at Daytona in the Cup Series in 2019. Haley did not have a great showing earlier this year at Daytona but before that he had won three straight Superspeedways races in 2020, Talladega, Daytona, then Talladega again. Maybe some things only come in threes, but how can you ignore that in his career in both of Cup Series and Xfinity Series his four wins have come at Daytona and Talladega. Haley is not likely to be in contention to win this race but at the end of the day if he can improve his position from 34th you’re in a good spot considering he is only costing you $3,500. 

Now go win your matchup and let us know how you did. Or if I picked every driver that will be in that lap 32 crash, I encourage you to let me hear it. Either way come find us on Twitter (@FantasyDFSX).

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