NASCAR DFS Picks for the Food City Dirt Race on March 28, 2021

Well here we are, the weekend of racing that we have all been waiting for. It is finally here; it is time to go dirt racing. When NASCAR first announced that there would be a dirt race this year, I was over the moon excited and well I still am. This will be the NASCAR Cup Series first time on dirt since the 1970’s. Safe to say a lot of these drivers have next to no experience on the different track surface. The entry and starting position for this race will be a little different than normal as there will practice sessions and qualifying heats that will determine the starting lineups for each main event. The lineup for each of the four qualifying heats will be determined by random draw. Dirt racing is a different experience all together for the drivers, this is going to be fun. 

I should mention that there is little to no reference material for this race. You are likely going to have to go with your gut. This might be a race where you just sit back and watch, but if you are like me and love to play DFS, here are my picks for this weekend’s Dirt Race at Bristol. 

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on 03/28/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on 03/28/2021 (Fanduel Values)

Christopher Bell: This race is going to be fun on so many levels. Dirt is going to be a first for some drivers, for Christopher Bell, not so much. Bell is being regarded as, if not the best, the second-best dirt driver on the NASCAR Cup Series Circuit. Bell along with Kyle Larson are the favorites for this race, some might even say by a long shot. There are a couple of different ways that drivers can move up from youth racing to the top, some race on pavement their whole life and some race on dirt, Bell happens to be a lifetime dirt racer, and a good one at that. I think this week you are safe with Bell or Larson in your lineup. It may just come down to cost and that is why I chose Bell over Larson. At Bristol in his career, Bell has raced it in the Cup Series twice with one top 10 finish. The dirt should make a huge difference to the driver who already has a win to his name this year at the Daytona Road Course.

Joey Logano: I feel like this has been the first week of the year where I can field an “all-star” lineup for a really good price. Outside of the two drivers I mentioned earlier, being Larson and Bell, I think this race could be wide open. There has been a lot of discussion leading up to this race of how it might turn out. Some think it will be a challenging race filled with yellow flags. Others think that once the rubber gets laid down on the track it could just come down to who has the fastest car on the track. I am leaning towards the race being in the more normal realm of who will be in the top 10 come the checkered flag. I really like Logano at his price this week, he does not have the dirt experience that some of the drivers do, but if I am right about how this race will go, his value this week could be excellent. Now if you want to look at it from an “it’s just another Bristol race” then Logano would also be an excellent pick. In his last six races at Bristol Logano has finished on average 10.67. That amounts to two top five finishes, three top 10 finishes and 244 laps led.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr: Here is another driver who grew up on dirt tracks. Ricky Stenhouse Jr will have just as good a shot as anyone to win this race on Sunday. Without knowing where anyone will start until after the heat races. There really is a lot up in the air for this one. In his last six races at Bristol Stenhouse has one top five finish. If you add his long history of dirt racing and his fourth-place finish in 2018 at Bristol he could be in for a good week. This pick is largely placed on the notion that the track does run like a traditional dirt track and the best of the best drivers have a harder time due to their unfamiliarity with dirt racing. I like to think of this pick as hedging my bet on whether the race will favor drivers with experience or if the race will follow the normal rankings.

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on 03/28/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on 03/28/2021 (Fanduel Values)

Kyle Busch: Here is another driver who has been excellent of late at Bristol. Kyle Busch is known for his racing savvy at this track. If this was a normal Bristol weekend, I have no doubt that Busch would be among the most picked drivers, let alone one of the most expensive. But of course, this is not a normal Bristol weekend this is a dirt racing weekend. Busch is in a class of his own at this racetrack. In 31 career races Busch has eight wins (a series most), 14 top five finishes (series most), 19 top 10 finishes, and has led an astounding 2,592 laps. The only other driver even close in their career is his brother Kurt Busch. Busch has more than double the number of laps led then the next best at the track Kevin Harvick who has 1,138 laps led. Busch has had a lot of his success at Bristol recently as well where he has an average finish of 5.22 in the last six races. Busch is the only driver with more than two top five finishes in the last three years at Bristol. Like I have said all day on this race, it could come down to luck, but for the chance that it doesn’t Busch is going to be someone you have in your lineup come race day. 

Kevin Harvick: As someone who does not have a history on dirt, I am interested to see how Kevin Harvick does this weekend. He will participate in both the Truck and Cup Series races this weekend. Outside of a win, Harvick has arguably had the best start to the season as he has five top 10 finishes in six races. This will be Harvick’s 41^st time racing at Bristol in his career, where he has three wins, 13 top five finishes, 20 top 10 finishes and has led 1,138 laps. Now, of course none of that will matter this weekend if the Bristol dirt track proves to be too tough a challenge for the Cup Series drivers. With Harvick’s experience if the race ends up being like any other race, he has as good a chance as anyone to come away victories. There will not be many weeks this year that you can get Harvick at this low price.

William Byron: Another driver who is coming at a huge discount this week is one of six winners this year, William Byron. Byron had a quiet start to the year at Daytona where he had an average finish of 29.5. He has turned that around the last four races, especially after his win at Miami-Homestead. Byron has finished in eighth place three straight races in a row now and will look to keep his four-race top 10 streak alive. Byron does only have one top 10 finish at Bristol in his career, however, 2021 has been his best year yet and he has shown a lot of improvement. I think Byron can be right in the mix of things by race end and at his low price I think he has a lot of value. 

Ty Dillon: Here is a wild card pick for this week, a true sleeper pick. Both Ty Dillon and his brother Austin Dillon grew up on all sorts of racetracks including dirt ones. This will be Dillon’s second Cup Series race this year after four straight years as a full time Cup Series driver. I would expect Dillon to start near the rear of this race which will give him a lot of point differential potential. The draw for the heats will be random of course so maybe that will play out a little different. Either way at his miniscule price point this week Dillon provides a lot of value and flexibility. Speaking of flexibility, his price points this week enables you to have both Bell and Busch in your lineup this week.