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NASCAR DFS Advice

NASCAR DFS Picks for the EchoPark 250 on March 20, 2021

Brandon Jones DFS NASCAR
PHOENIX, AZ - MARCH 13: Brandon Jones, driver of the #19 Joe Gibbs Racing Menards/Turtle Wax Toyota Supra, races during the Call 811 Before You Dig 200 NASCAR Xfinity Series Race on March 13, 2021 at Phoenix ISM Raceway in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)

Can you believe that we have already been racing for five weeks? Austin Cindric was able to drive away with his second of what will be many more wins this past week. What was wild about the finish to the race was the 18-year-old rookie Ty Gibbs, who in his second race placed second. Oh, and did you know that in his first career race, he won. What a start for the kid. This was Cindric’s second win in a row at Phoenix raceway after claiming the NASCAR Xfinity Series title last November. Cindric remarkably led 119 of 200 laps last Saturday, which was quite impressive. Moving to this weekend’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway, we look at a race that is rather interesting to predict as the last two of the last three winners are all Cup Series drivers (Christopher Bell and Kevin Harvick). The other winner being AJ Allmendinger, who won two weeks ago at Las Vegas. There is not great representation at this track among drivers as this race only happens once a year. I will admit that this week I had a hard time putting an optimal lineup together since six drivers are valued at over $10,000. Not to mention most of them are favorites to win. In my opinion you really, and I mean really need to like a guy to put him in your lineup if he has a valuation like that. With saying that, I am going to stay away from drivers valued at greater than $10,000 this week. I don’t every week, but I think there is value to be found in other drivers.

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the EchoPark 250 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on 03/20/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Driver #1Brandon Jones $ 9,700 
Driver #2   
Driver #3Brett Moffitt $ 8,400 
Driver #4   
Driver #5Jeb Burton $ 7,700 
Driver #6   

Brandon Jones: I mentioned last week that I seem to pick Brandon Jones every week, well here I am again. Jones has been great all year; he has just been very unlucky. He had a strong showing last week at Phoenix in his Number 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. Jones was a top-five car early and looked like he had a chance until he was hit with an early pit-road speeding penalty. He did recover however and race his way back into the top-five, and in fact to the lead for a couple of laps. But of course, with his luck this year he was hit from behind. Jones’ day went from a sure as can be top-five finish to a finish in the garage. Just rotten luck. Jones is going to start this race in 16th place where if he drives like he did last weekend will have no trouble reaching the top-five. This opens the door for lots of points for Jones. Jones has a top-five finish and two top 10 finishes at Atlanta in the last three years. His average finish is 9.67. If he can have a strong showing, I believe this could be the week he gets his first win of the year. 

Brett Moffitt: A normal strategy for me when I am looking for some value is to find drivers who will race in more than one race in the weekend. Brett Moffitt fills that void every week. I like the idea of drivers getting a feel for the track the night before and translating that to success the following night. This is by no means a fool proof strategy, but it is sometimes how I will choose one driver over another. Moffit has been rather good this year, where he has a second-place finish and two other top 10 finishes. To also go along with my point earlier, he also races Friday night in the Truck Series. Moffitt has only raced at Atlanta once in his career in the Xfinity Series where he finished 14th. On the flip side in the Truck Series, Moffitt has been excellent the last three years where he has one win, two top-five finishes, and has finished top 10 in all three. With Moffitt starting eighth this weekend, I think he is in a good spot to get into the top five and contend for the win. 

Jeb Burton: What a year it has been for Jeb Burton so far. In five races Burton has an average finish of 5.8, considering he did not race full-time last year I would say that is quite a feat. Now you could look and say that he has also been graced with a very attractive average starting position of 5.2, but keep in mind that its not about where you start its where you finish. It is easy for drivers to start early and slip down the ranking early and rather quickly if they are not on their “A” game. Burton has finished top 10 in all five races and top five in three of them. Burton only raced 11 times in 2020 in the Xfinity Series where he had three top five finishes and six top 10 finishes. Burton has already met his 2020 production numbers in half the number of races. I say he keeps it up this week at Atlanta Motor Speedway. I am not saying that I think he will win, but he has as good a chance as anyone to lead some laps early and often. 

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Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the EchoPark 250 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on 03/20/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Driver #1Brandon Jones $ 9,700  
Driver #2Harrison Burton $ 8,600 
Driver #3Brett Moffitt $ 8,400 
Driver #4Myatt Snider $ 8,000 
Driver #5Jeb Burton $ 7,700 
Driver #6Brandon Brown $ 7,000 

Harrison Burton: In year two in the Xfinity Series Harrison Burton has yet to find the same success he had in 2020. So far in 2021 Burton has only one top five finish and two top 10 finishes. To put that into perspective compared to 2020, Burton in 2020 finished second, fifth, first, second, and ninth in his first five races. That is versus a third, sixth, 39th, ninth, and 12th place finishes in 2021. Burton was able to stay steady in last year’s race at Atlanta Motor Speedway where he started fifth and finished fifth. Ironically, Burton is going to start this race fifth again. Time will tell if he can keep his position or improve. My bet of course is him staying in the top five for this race.  As I mentioned earlier 2020 was a good year for Burton where he had four wins, 15 top-five finishes, 22 top 10 finishes, and led 291 laps. Burton is bound to get a win in soon and this could be the week. 

Myatt Snider: As one of four drivers to clinch their spot into the playoffs this year with a win, Myatt Snider is trending to have his best year yet. In his first fulltime season in 2020, Snider had two top-five finishes and six top 10 finishes. So far in 2021, Snider has one win and two top 10 finishes. Snider is trending in the right direction. Snider has raced at Atlanta twice in his career, once in the Xfinity Series and once in the Truck Series. His only race in the Xfinity Series will leave a bad taste in his mouth as he finished 29th, however, in the Truck Series in 2019 he finished seventh. Snider is going to start this weekend’s race in the ninth position, where he will have a chance to race into the top five early. 

Brandon Brown: Before the start of this season Brandon Brown only had one top-five finish and seven top 10 finishes to his name on the Xfinity Series. Now after a hot start to the 2021 season Brown has almost matched his career performance in five races. So far this year Brown has one top-five finish last weekend at Phoenix Raceway. To go along with back to back top 10 finishes at the two Daytona tracks. Brown is going to start this race in the fourth position, which will likely mean that most people will pass on him this week. I on the other hand think it is to his advantage to be at the start of the pack early. Brown, like J. Burton that I mentioned earlier have been in the top five and 10 almost all year. He is driving well and could be in for a top-five finish again this week. There are of course other options this weekend if you don’t like the fact that Brown starts fourth, and those might include Gray Gaulding who starts 33rd and has point differential potential, although coming at a higher price. 

Now go win your matchup and let us know how you did. Or if I picked every driver that will be in that lap 98 crash, I encourage you to let me hear it. Either way come find us on Twitter (@FantasyDFSX).

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