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NASCAR DFS Advice

NASCAR DFS Picks for the Drydene 400 on May 16, 2021

Joey Lagano
ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 21: Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Team Penske Shell Pennzoil Ford Mustang, pits during the 63rd Annual running of the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 NASCAR Series Cup race on March 21, 2021 at the Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

As we head into Dover racing week, there is a lot of data to pick through as we build a winning lineup. This week we are going to focus on finding value by looking at previous top contenders at the racetrack. There are quite a few value drivers that you can insert into your lineup. Let’s now take a deep dive into who I think you can insert into your lineup for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway.

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on 05/16/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Driver #1Martin Truex Jr $ 11,900
Driver #2Alex Bowman $ 9,200
Driver #3  
Driver #4Erik Jones $ 7,200
Driver #5  
Driver #6  $ 6,200

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on 05/16/2021 (Fanduel Values)

Driver #1Martin Truex Jr $ 14,000
Driver #2  
Driver #3Alex Bowman $ 10,000
Driver #4  
Driver #5  

Martin Truex Jr ($ 11,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

Coming off his third win of the season, I do not think anyone is poised to win this race more then Martin Truex Jr. Truex has been one of two dominant drivers this year, along with Denny Hamlin, who I also like in this race. So far in 2021 Truex has three wins, five top five finishes, eight top 10 finishes, and had led 608 laps. It is safe to say that Truex could be as sure of a bet for this week as they come. Couple his dominance with the fact that he has the pole this week and Truex could be in for another dominant day. It is not just his success this year at Dover that excites me it is also his recent success at the speedway. In the last three years Truex has one win, five top five finishes, five top 10 finishes, and had led 235 laps in six races. My opinion is that Truex keeps the lead for a long time, leads a majority of the laps and helps you win your matchup this week with a elite DFS performance. 

Alex Bowman ($ 9,200 DK, $10,000 FD)

At the start of the year I was a little unsure if Alex Bowman had what it took to step into Jimmie Johnsons shoes and drive the number 48 car for Hendricks motorsports. Bowman did however have a very successful 2020 that saw him finish sixth in points and a top-eight overall finish. Bowman won one race in 2020 as well as adding six top-five finishes and 15 top 20 finishes. Bowman has three Cup wins with Hendrick over the past three seasons. Bowman has one win this year after winning a couple weeks ago at Richmond. Over the past three years at Dover Bowman has three top five finishes and has led 42 laps. From a DFS perspective picking Bowman gives you lots of point differential potential because he starts in 16th. Bowman has as good a chance as any top add another top 10 finish or better to his resume.

Erik Jones ($7,200)

In his fifth full time season in the NASCAR Cup Series, Erik Jones is off to an ok start. So far in 2021 he has two top 10 finishes at Las Vegas and the Bristol Dirt Track. Jones has eight career races under his belt at Dover where he has an average finish of 13.00, which is sixth best among active drivers. In those eight races he has one top five finish, two top 190 finishes and has finished top 20 in seven of eight. Jones is going to start this race in 23rd place which means he has a lot of point differential potential. Jones has consistently showed that he can get into the top 20 at this speedway and I say he does it again or better. 

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Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on 05/16/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Driver #1Martin Truex Jr $ 11,900
Driver #2Alex Bowman $ 9,200
Driver #3Kurt Busch $ 8,700
Driver #4Erik Jones $ 7,200
Driver #5Daniel Suarez $ 6,300
Driver #6Michael McDowell $ 6,200

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway on 05/16/2021 (Fanduel Values)

Driver #1Martin Truex Jr $ 14,000
Driver #2Joey Logano $ 10,500
Driver #3Alex Bowman $ 10,000
Driver #4Kurt Busch $ 8,500
Driver #5Daniel Suarez $ 6,700

Joey Logano ($ 10,500 FD)

Here is one of those drivers that you never really feel bad about having in your lineup each week. Joey Logano is going to race well, and he is going to race hard every time he hits the tracks. And of course, because of that he is often a very expensive driver to insert into your lineup. Logano is off to another usual season for him, so far, he has one win, four top five finishes, six top 10 finishes, and had led 324 laps. All totals are well within what we expect from him. In his career Logano is averaging just under two wins a year, so you know he is going to be out racing for his second of the year this weekend. With his 27 career wins Logano has yet to win at Dover, but he does have four top five finishes and 14 top 10 finishes to his name. Starting ninth this week, make me think that Logano is going to be finishing this race with another top five finish. 

Kurt Busch ($ 8,700 DK, $8,500 FD)

As the Cup Series’ seasoned veteran Kurt Busch continues to be a dark horse every week. Busch will start this race in 28th place and has plenty of potential to contend at the end of the race. Take this pick as my dark horse pick for the week. In his career, Busch has one win, nine top-five finishes, 12 top 10 finishes, and has led 429 laps at Dover International Speedway. Recently Busch has two top five finishes and three top 10 finishes at Dover. No reason Busch cannot get into the top 10 again this week. Busch offers a lot of value this week.

Daniel Suarez ($6,300 DK)

Coming into his fifth season in the NASCAR Cup Series, Daniel Suarez has joined a new team. Suarez is now driving for Trackhouse Racing in the Number 99 car. Suarez has had a good season so far where he has one top-five finish, two top 10 finishes and six top 20 finishes in eight races. Suarez’s top five finish came at the Bristol Dirt track. He was the big surprise in the top 10 as that was his first-time racing on dirt. At Dover, Suarez has one top five finish and two top 10 finishes in the last three years. I like Suarez as a value option this weekend as I try to fit some other top drivers into my lineup.

Michael McDowell ($ 6,200 DK)

How good of a season has Michael McDowell been having so far in 2021. I would say pretty good by anyone’s standards. After going winless in the first 13 seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series, McDowell added his first ever win at the Daytona 500 earlier this year. McDowell is also quietly putting together his best year yet in the Cup Series where he has the one win, two top five finishes, and four top 10 finishes. All career highs. Now McDowell has by no means been excellent at Dover in the past, but he has really seemed to turn a new corner this year. Look at McDowell as a late start flier this week who could potentially get you a lot of point differential points. 

Now go win your matchup and let us know how you did. Or if I picked every driver that will be in that lap 43 crash, I encourage you to let me hear it. Either way come find us on Twitter (@FantasyDFSX).

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