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NASCAR DFS Picks for the Ally 400 on June 20, 2021

Sheldon Creed
BRISTOL, TN - MARCH 29: #2: Sheldon Creed, GMS Racing, Chevrolet Silverado Chevy Accessories, #51: Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch Motorsports, Toyota Tundra Auto-Owners Insurance during the running of the rain delayed Pinty's Truck Race on March 29, 2021 at Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

As we head into Nashville Race Week, we will have to look at drivers’ stats and history from other courses as we build our lineup this week. Another great part about this weekend is we are back to practice and qualifying. This week we are going to focus on finding value by looking at previous top contenders at this speedway. There are quite a few value drivers that you can insert into your lineup. Let’s now take a deep dive into who I think you can insert into your lineup for the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway.

Past Winners/Track Knowledge

This will be the first NASCAR Cup Series race in the existence of Nashville Superspeedway. This is going to be a 400-mile race where the drivers will be tasked with completing 300 laps around the Superspeedway. Nashville Superspeedway is a 1.33-mile oval, with a concrete surface. There are varying degrees of banking in each section of the superspeedway. The turns have 14-degree banking, nine degrees in the front straightaway, and six degrees in the back straightaway. As stage points are becoming more coveted as the year goes on and racers, must win stages to get those oh so valuable stage points, racers will have three stages to try and get points. Stage one is 90 laps, stage two is 95 laps, and stage three is 115 laps. With no real data on who has done well on this track in the past, with the large gap in competition we are going to have to look at how drivers have fared at other similar tracks. This is the longest oval, concrete track that will be raced on this year. 

Below is a lineup that we believe can provide the best value for the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on 06/20/2021 (DraftKings Values)

Driver #1Martin Truex Jr $ 10,400
Driver #2  
Driver #3Kevin Harvick $ 9,100
Driver #4  
Driver #5  $ 7,400
Driver #6  

A-List Drivers

Martin Truex Jr ($10,400)

As one of two drivers this year with three or more wins, Martin Truex Jr, is as hot as they come in the Cup Series. Truex has been one of three dominant drivers this year, along with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, who I also like in this race, but didn’t pick due to value. So far in 2021 Truex has three wins, six top five finishes, nine top 10 finishes, and had led 627 laps. It is safe to say that Truex could be as sure of a bet for this week as they come. If he can get to number one and can lead any number of laps, you are in for an elite DFS performance from Truex.

Kevin Harvick ($9,100)

2021 has been far from the year that Kevin Harvick had in 2020 where he had nine wins, 20 top five finishes, 27 top 10 finishes, and led 1531 laps. Harvick was the regular season winner last year, ad was by far the best and most dominant driver all year. 2021 has been less than average for Harvick as he has yet to find victory lane. He does however have four top five finishes, and 11 top 10 finishes. It is safe to say that Harvick is due for a win. I think this is the week. I think Harvick will get to the front of the pack in this race. We all know what happens more times than not when Harvick is in the front of the field. They do not call him “the closer” for no reason. I think Harvick is another no-brainer pick this week.

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Strategy at Nashville Superspeedway

Going into this race, I think what we are going to have to do it trust our gut. I am going to be picking drivers who have raced well this year and not so much factor in how they have fared at similar tracks. With that being said, I think the best option this week is to look at two A-List drivers and they build your lineup around them. This race will likely race similar Talladega (2.66-Mile Tri-Oval), Las Vegas (1.54-Mile Tri-Oval), Kansas (1.52-Mile Tri-Oval), or Daytona (2.50-Mile Tri-Oval). If you want to base your picks on any of these tracks, I think you have the right idea. There are a few drivers that excel on the so-called Superspeedways and that is where I will be spending my money this weekend. 

A-List Drivers

Brad Keselowski ($9,500)

As one of my favorite drivers for this race, Brad Keselowski is poised to add another win to his resume this year. In 16 races this year Keselowski has one win, five top five finishes, and has led 201 laps. The strange thing this year for Keselowski is he is having a career bad year in the average finish department as his average finish this year has been 13.44. No for some drivers that would be a career best, but Keselowski is a really good driver. Compared to his 2020 average finish of 10.08 and four wins, 2021 so far has been good but not great. I think Keselowski can “turn” it around this weekend. And with that being said, I am surprised that Keselowski is not worth more this week, with the resume he has at Superspeedways. Good for us I guess as we get a phenomenal driver at good value. I really like Keselowski this weekend, I think he is in for a top five or better performance.

B-List Drivers

Austin Dillon ($8,100)

Richard Childress Racing Austin Dillon has had a pretty good start to the year. So far in 2021 Dillon’s highlights have been winning the Bluegreen Vacations Duel Two and finishing third in the Daytona 500. If he and his team can keep up their solid efforts there is no reason why Dillon cannot add another top 10 finish, or better. As a whole in 2021, Dillon has one top five finish and six top 10 finishes. Dillon has also been improving his average finish this year. In 16 races, he has an average finish of 13. Which is 3.17 average spots better than his average last year. Look for Dillon to add another top 10 finish this weekend. 

Chris Buescher ($7,400)

Driving the Number 17 for Roush Fenway Racing, Chris Buescher has had a relatively normal year by his standards. In 16 races, he has four top 10 finishes, which other than in 2020 would be tied for a season high. 2020 was by far Buescher’s best year as he had two top five finishes, eight top 10 finishes and led 33 laps. His 2021 lap led total is a career high with 71. Buescher had his best race of the year last weekend at the All-Star race at Texas Motor Speedway. Overall, pretty good and consistent. I think Buescher can add another top 10 finish this week depending on where he starts. 

C-List Drivers

Justin Haley ($5,300)

2020 was by far Justin Haley’s best year yet. In the Xfinity Series Haley finished 2020 with three wins, 10 top-five finishes, and 113 laps led. Haley’s dominance at Superspeedways last year was extremely evident, whereas he was more mediocre on intermediate tracks. Now as we are back at a Superspeedway this race seems to be right in Haley’s wheelhouse. I am excited about having Haley in my lineup this week. Haley offers front-line win potential and comes at a rather decent price point. I am a little shocked that Haley is not priced higher going into the Ally 400. Now to just put the icing on the cake, Haley’s one and only Cup Series win was at Daytona. Not many drivers can say that they have two wins apiece at the “Big One’s”.

Winning Alternative

William Byron ($9,700)

I think the value for William Byron is justified this weekend and that is why I like him as an alternative this weekend. Byron is one of 11 winners this year. Byron had a quiet start to the year at Daytona where he had an average finish of 29.5. He has turned that around the over the year, especially after his win at Miami-Homestead. After winning at Miami, Byron followed up with finishing top 10 in 11 straight races and top 10 in 12 of 16 races. Byron is becoming one of the elite drivers in the cup series. I think Byron can be right in the mix of things by race end and at his price point I think he has a lot of value.

Now go win your matchup and let us know how you did. Or if I picked every driver that will be in that lap 123 crash, I encourage you to let me hear it. Either way come find us on Twitter (@FantasyDFSX).

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