DFSExperts: Deeper Dive — Course, Weather, and Tee Times
This week the Country Club of Jackson will play to a Par of 72 at 7,460 yards long and features Champion Bermudagrass greens that will run at 13.5 feet on the Stimpmeter, as well as Bermudagrass fairways and rough of only two inches. On the surface, based on the length of the course and the absence of much rough, one would think the winner this week will be a bomber that will have a great putting tournament. This scenario has played out in recent history with Cameron Champ (Not in the Field) winning in 2018, who perfectly fits this profile. However, when this course was redesigned by John Fought in 2008 the greens were patterned after a Donald Ross design with small, firm, fast greens. This brings the great, short to mid-iron player and leading putters on Tour into play and justifies recent victories by Sebastian Munoz ($9,900 DK $10,900 FD) (2019 Champion), Ryan Armour ($6,400 DK $7,700 FD) (2017 Champion), Cody Gribble (2016 Champion) (Not in the Field), Peter Malnati ($6,300 DK $7,600 FD) (2015 Champion). All of these previous winners fit the great short to mid-iron competitor that is also a great putter, especially on fast Bermuda greens. Another factor to consider is that this is the first year that the Sanderson Farms event is not during a week where there are multiple PGA Tour events and the field was diluted in the past, which resulted in six successive first-time winners dating from last year. Now with full FedExCup points and a 2021 Masters exemption to the winner on the new 2020-2021 PGA Tour Schedule, the Sanderson Farms field is now more competitive and deeper.
The weather this week will be cool, with temperature highs Thursday through Sunday of 65, 60, 63, and 65 degrees. There is little chance of precipitation, ranging from a 10 percent probability on Thursday, to 20 percent on Sunday. The wind will be a factor for competitors in the middle of the day with Thursday, reaching 8 miles per hour out of the North Northwest; Friday, 8 miles per hour out of the North; Saturday, 7 miles per hour out of the East; and Sunday, 6 miles per hour out of the West. The weather and starting tee and time the first two rounds, may provide an advantage to those that tee off of the 10th tee in the afternoon wave on Thursday, and then play early off of the 1st tee on Friday. The reason I predict this is that #10 is a Par 3 hole of 223 yards that will be a tough starting hole, especially on a cool Thursday morning as a first hole of the day and tournament. Also, the back nine has the longest Par 4 and Par 5 holes, and when playing these as the first nine on a cool morning, it will be difficult to obtain any momentum and to make birdies the first nine holes. So, the competitors that fall into the ideal scenario of an afternoon tee time on Thursday, off of #10 tee, and a Friday morning tee time, on #1 tee, in my opinion will have the best chance of winning or to provide value picks to make the cut and to have a top 20 finish this week are: Brian Harman ($9,400 DK $10,600 FD), Luke List ($9,000 DK $9,800 FD), Carlos Ortiz ($8,300 DK $9,600 FD), Lucas Glover ($8,000 DK $9,800 FD), Denny McCarthy ($7,900 DK $9,200 FD), Rory Sabbatini ($7,600 DK $8,900 FD), Brian Stuard ($7,500 DK $8,900 FD), Kristoffer Ventura ($7,200 DK $8,800 FD), Nate Lashley ($7,000 DK $8,300 FD), J.B. Holmes ($7,000 DK $8,300 FD), Patton Kizzire ($6,900 DK $8,000 FD), Adam Schenk ($6,700 DK $8,500 FD), Bronson Burgoon ($6,600 DK $7,800 FD), Bill Haas ($6,200 DK $7,000 FD).
These details and trends from the entire field are only possible to come from someone that is intimately familiar with competitive golf, that is willing to go beyond the numbers and reaches the depth and breadth of the competitor and person, along with prevailing weekly playing conditions to be out in front of positive results. This in-depth analysis and justification for my recommended lineup plays, or don’t play this week, are exclusively available for members of DFSExperts.com. Send us any fodder for the “Wall of Fame” including screenshots. We will put them up on social and proclaim you the DFS champion of the world. Good luck, and Golf On!
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