DFS Picks For THE PLAYERS Championship March 10-13 2022

It’s been a two-tone start to the golfing year. Hawaii and the West Coast Swing witnessed sensational scoring conditions and the fields took full advantage, hitting record low scores with abanadon.The start of the Florida Swing was something of a smack round the head, therefore. PGA National and Bay Hill had tough set ups and the wind was blustery, changing direction between practice swing and hit. By last weekend Matt Jones was so frustrated he lost the plot and hurled his flat stick in the drink like a flush-faced toddler. Rory McIlroy, meanwhile, snapped his wedge. Tough times and now they head to TPC Sawgrass for the fifth major. Respite from the grind? Probably not.

Last time out
Scottie Scheffler is like a golfing version of that old line about struggling. “Failed?” it goes. “Fail again. Fail better.” After coming so close so often to a first win, he finally landed a victory in the Phoenix Open and it took him only two more starts to land number two. Our picks were largely rock solid at Bay Hill. We went for resilient types who wouldn’t buckle. Im, Bezuidenhout, Kokrak and Bradley landed us top 30s, Mitchell and Poulter played the weekend.

Here’s are some entirely FREE suggestions for you this week with MORE for subscribers (DraftKings Prices)

Patrick Cantlay ($9,900): The Dye Factor matters: Cantlay likes his designs. He’s landed four top 15s in his last four visits to TPC River Highlands, has three top seven finishes at Harbour Town and has said of Sawgrass: “It reminds me of Harbour Town. I like it there and I like it here.” He played the track as a junior and was top ten through rounds one, two and three in his first two PLAYERS appearance. He slipped back to land a pair of top 25s and has missed two cuts since, but he’s a different golfer now. He’s resilient in the mind and his all-round game is strong. Lost a playoff just two starts ago in Phoenix

Corey Conners ($7,300) His tee-to-green strength is a huge bonus this week and indeed on this sort of test. He proved it last week when T–11 at Bay Hill, he’s proved it with three top 20s in the majors last year, and he’s proved it on the course too. He was T–41 on debut in 2019 and T–7 last year. A bonus that he has no memories of the event in May to muddle his head. 

Tony Finau ($8,500) It’s just not worth spending this much on a salary for Finau in his current form and on this layout. He hasn’t made one top 10 in 11 starts since he won The Northern Trust last August and six times he didn’t finish better than T–40. At Sawgrass he is 2-for-5 with just one top 50 and that was T–22.

The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass

Not only a Pete Dye design, but a classic of his type. The PGA TOUR asked for stadium golf and they got it. He created a layout that provides drama for those watching behind the ropes and on TV. It’s a par 72 set at about 7,189 yards which is not long. But, as we’ll discover, it plays longer in March than it did in May (it reverted to the earlier date in 2019). 

There is water everywhere and the fairway bunkering is a key element too – it often encroaches on landing areas. Tiger Woods once grumbled that “everyone hits to the same spot” as a consequence of these off-the-tee obstructions. Matt Fitzpatrick added an intriguing thought; he suggested that they make a player believe the landing areas are smaller than they are in reality.

A key factor here is volatility. The island green par-3 17th is like the entire course in microcosm: One good, bold shot and birdie is on the cards. But one bad shot could spell the end of the tournament. Not so much risk-reward as big risk-big reward.

Rory McIlroy likes the new date. “Having the rough overseeded around the greens, that’s a big thing for me because I’ve always been more comfortable chipping out of that sort of rough,” he said. “In May, it was sort of a hit and hope, guessing games around the greens. I said it about Jason Day. He’s got a wonderful short game and he can actually show it in March whereas in May it’s a leveller of everyone.”

Adam Scott noted how the course now plays its full distance. “Drives are really not running at all in March,” he said. “So, holes like the 14th and 16th, the ball doesn’t run down near any of the trouble, but it’s leaving us much longer second shots, which is more difficult. I think it’s a good strategic golf course, I really do. I don’t think you can overpower the course and I don’t think you can play out of the rough all week and do well.”

Rickie Fowler takes a more simple approach: “The golf course, if you look at it properly, it’s fairly straightforward. Hit it in the fairway, hit it on the green, wear out the fairways and greens.” Or he would take that approach: his winner’s exemption has ended.

Justin Rose expands on that point, highlighting that the earlier start plays to the design ethic. “It’s more target golf, and for me that’s how this golf course was designed,” he said. “It’s a stadium-style course, a target-style golf course. I don’t think it was designed to be firm and fast and running and bouncy and out of control. I think the targets are there to be hit. And if you do, you get rewarded.”

Weather
The weather forecast for Ponte Vedra, Florida is well worth keeping an eye on. Basically, this week could get messy. There are thunderstorms predicted on Thursday and Friday with nothing more than breezes to blow them away. The wind will rise to about 25mph on Saturday before relenting a little on Sunday. Rain? A 90% chance of it from Thursday through Saturday; Sunday should be sunny. The temperatures will be high 60s for the first two day and dip to mid 50s at the weekend. Humidity will be mid 90s Thursday and Friday, easing for the weekend. Plenty to ponder!

Past Winners of THE PLAYERS Championship
The first seven editions in the 21st century were held in March and there was a split in the winners: Hal Sutton won in 2000 for a second time, Tiger Woods for a first time in 2001, Davis Love III for a second time in 2003 and Adam Scott in 2004. All three are high quality golfers. Kiwi Craig Perks’ win in 2002 was pure leftfield, Fred Funk emerged as winner in brutal conditions in 2005, and Stephen Ames triumphed in 2006. A trio that were rather less easy to predict winning.

The next 11 tournaments were in May. There were plenty of elite winners, but that penchant the course has for producing an unlikely champion remained. There were wins for European major winners: Sergio Garcia in 2008, Henrik Stenson in 2009, Martin Kaymer in 2014. Aussie major winner Jason Day joined them on the honors board in 2016. Tiger Woods landed a second win in 2013. And strong American performers Matt Kuchar (2012), Rickie Fowler (2015) and Webb Simpson (2018) lifted the trophy.

South Africa’s Tim Clark was rather more of a surprise in 2010, not that his steady tee-to-green game was a poor fit, but more that he struggled to convert wins. K.J. Choi had a similar long game to Clark and won more, but it was still a little shocking that he won in 2011. His compatriot Si Woo Kim’s victory in 2017 was the biggest upset.

Rory McIlroy triumphed in the tournament’s return to March, in 2019, and Justin Thomas is the defending champion. 

Strategy

This is a course where an individual’s record reflect the volatility of the test. So many players have returned good results yet also have a logbook littered with poor efforts. It makes for tricky assessment. A few examples: half of Jon Rahm’s 14 laps of the course have been sub-70 and three have been 76 or worse. Rory McIlroy has madee 11 starts with five missed cuts and five top12s. Francesco Molinari has made 10 starts with four top 10s and five missed cuts. Pure boom or bust. We need shrewd golfers, good in blustery wind, solid in Florida. Short hitting might be a problem with all the rain forecast, but length is not everything – they need to be smart and we’ll be cautious: solid records rather than feast or famine. Don’t forget the weather forecast. Down the years players who feature highly in Bogey Avoidance stats feature on the PLAYERS leaderboard.

Here’s A Line-up of Core Picks For THE PLAYERS Championship

Daniel Berger ($8,800) Since the start of 2020 Berger is 35-for-39 with 30 top 30 finishes, no less than 18 of them top 10s. That’s plenty of bang for your buck and he’s very good at avoiding the bogeys too. His course form? He missed the cut on debut (only just) but is 5-for-5 since then with a pair of top 10s. Only played here once in this superb period of his career, when T–9 last year.

Shane Lowry ($8,800) If the weather turns foul the Irishman won’t pull a face, he’ll probably smile to himself. He likes wind and he likes rain. Or at least he hates it less than the rest of the field. Top 25 in his last five starts, a very fine second last time out (in tough Florida conditions) and had last week off so not overly tired. Second at halfway in this event in 2016 and T–8 last year.

Adam Scott ($8,200) A class act off the course and a class act on this course. He’s a superb 16-for-19 at Sawgrass and hasn’t missed a weekend since 2011. Four of his last five visits reaped top 15 finishes. He has talked of a big year, focussing on the big events, and primed himself by going 5-for-5 with three top 10s so far in 2022.
Sergio Garcia ($7,400) Has a consistency in his course record to set aside Scott’s. He’s 18-for-21, hasn’t missed a cut since 2003 and like the Aussie is a past winner. He’s also made his last seven cuts and missed only one of his last ten. Magnificent value in this salary.

Si Woo Kim ($7,300) The Korean has absolutely taken to this Dye test. He’s 5-for-5 with three top 25 finishes and that victory in 2017. He also contended on the property, at the Valley Course, on the Korn Ferry Tour. He’s on a run of 16-for-18 (only one no-cut event) which start with second at Sedgefield, a venue he also likes and at which he churns out the good finishes.
Adam Scott ($8,200) A class act off the course and a class act on this course. He’s a superb 16-for-19 at Sawgrass and hasn’t missed a weekend since 2011. Four of his last five visits reaped top 15 finishes. He has talked of a big year, focussing on the big events, and primed himself by going 5-for-5 with three top 10s so far in 2022.
Sergio Garcia ($7,400) Has a consistency in his course record to set aside Scott’s. He’s 18-for-21, hasn’t missed a cut since 2003 and like the Aussie is a past winner. He’s also made his last seven cuts and missed only one of his last ten. Magnificent value in this salary.

Si Woo Kim ($7,300) The Korean has absolutely taken to this Dye test. He’s 5-for-5 with three top 25 finishes and that victory in 2017. He also contended on the property, at the Valley Course, on the Korn Ferry Tour. He’s on a run of 16-for-18 (only one no-cut event) which start with second at Sedgefield, a venue he also likes and at which he churns out the good finishes.

Denny McCarthy ($6,400) The high quality field forces McCarthy down the salary pecking order but there’s no need for us to ignore his form. He’s on a run of 9-for-10 and has made the cut the last nine times he has encountered Bermuda greens. He’s played the event twice, finishing T–41 and T–55. He made the cut with something to spare on debut and was top five at halfway last year.

Other Player Options For THE PLAYERS Championship

•  Matthew Fitzpatrick has progressive course form (MC, MC, T–46, T–41, T–9) and arrives fresh from four consecutive top 10s.
•  Xander Schauffele broke par in all four rounds when T–2 on his Sawgrass debut in 2018 but he’s followed that with two missed cuts, averaging 73.00 per round.

•  Jordan Spieth has a similar record: T–4 on debut, 2-for-6 since with no top 40 finish.

COVID-19 and Injury Warning:

Pro DFS players know it makes sense to stay up-to-date on Twitter, DraftKings, FanDuel and-or subscribe to any number of email feeds and whatever to remain up to speed with injuries or COVID-19 withdraws. Players that don’t make the cut are tough enough. Players that don’t play all four rounds (even when pulling out at the last minute) make for a pretty weak lineup. 

Go win your lineups and then tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.