Congratulations to Carlos Ortiz 267 (-13) for winning the Vivint Houston Open last week over Dustin Johnson ($10,000 DK $11,800 FD) and Hideki Matsuyama ($8,700 DK $10,500 FD) by two strokes over 72 holes at Memorial Park Golf Course. This week we have a Major Championship in November, the illustrious Masters with a 95 player field, a 36-hole cut to 50 players plus ties, and to accommodate the shorter daylight hours, a morning and afternoon wave of starting times Thursday and Friday off of #1 and #10 tees.
This week at (Augusta National Golf Club ) the golf course will play to a Par of 72 at 7,475 yards. This iconic gem of a golf course was designed by Alister MacKenzie, course architect, under the approving eye of legendary amateur golfer, Bobby Jones, who founded the club with Clifford Roberts. Augusta National will feature light ryegrass rough, and lightning quick bentgrass greens expected to be firm, reaching 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter, with tightly mown run off areas around the greens that will challenge the competitor that is not hitting at least 70% of the greens. The signature Alister MacKenzie greens will have steep slopes and ridges that will emphasize strokes gained on approach, around the greens, and with putting. It also will play longer than in the spring with a 100 percent chance of rain, up to one inch on Thursday, along with a 20 to 30 percent chance Friday through Sunday of rain and thundershowers, dealing with the remnants of Eta, the tropical storm, as it reaches North of the Gulf of Mexico. Shots gained off of the tee, will also play a key role in determining the best results this week as the damp conditions will make the course play longer, yet the greens will have the sub-air drainage operating, keeping them fairly dry. These conditions will favor the longer hitter, assuming they are hitting fairways, so they do not have to hit a long iron or hybrid into a par 3 or 4, to a small landing area that will leave a birdie or two putt par opportunity. I anticipate the competitors that can especially master strokes gained on approach, off the tee, around the greens, and putting, will result in the best performances this week. However, if a competitor is disproportionately skilled on approach, around the greens, and with putting, but quite possibly does not have great length off of the tee, as Zach Johnson ($6,800 DK $8,100 FD) did in winning with cold, windy conditions in 2007, there are values for potential top 10 finishers down the salary roster. These value players will also rely on course knowledge, experience, and positive results at Augusta National, which is always a factor, more than usual, as a stat that will carry more weight than in a standard week on Tour. If a competitor is losing significant strokes on approach, around the greens, or on bentgrass putting greens, I would not advise playing them this week. Tiger Woods ($9,100 DK $10,500 FD) is the 2019 defending champion, but the defense of his title has been delayed 18 months due to Covid-19 concerns and restrictions. The (Masters ), always contested at the former Berkman’s Fruitland Nursery property located at Washington and Magnolia in Augusta, Georgia, will once again be hosted at the revered Augusta National Golf Club. Due to the spirit and vision of Bobby Jones, Augusta National Golf Club has evolved into the pride and joy of American, International, and Amateur Golf, worldwide. Two separate waves of tee times off of #1 and #10 tees on Thursday and Friday are a change this year to accommodate the shorter light hours in the Fall. Weather will surely be a factor on Thursday. It may play out where an earlier time will be at a disadvantage with start and stoppage of play, possibly taking all day to finish the first competitive round. The later times may not even get started or if they do may have more favorable conditions to start their round, but quite possibly playing the majority of the first 36 holes on Friday. Temperatures will vary from a high of 79 degrees on Thursday, to a daytime low on Saturday of 72 degrees. Winds are expected to be between 5 to 10 miles per hour throughout the Masters, with thundershowers expected off and on most of Thursday and Sunday morning. The course is expected to have softer fairways than normal, without as much roll out on tee shots. This week Bryson DeChambeau ($11,200 DK $12,100 FD), Justin Thomas ($10,700 DK $11,600 FD), Jon Rahm ($10,500 DK $11,700 FD), Rory McIlroy ($10,200 DK $11,900 FD), and Dustin Johnson ($10,000 DK $11,800 FD) headline DraftKings and FanDuel salary rankings respectively.
Thereare severalquality picks that are very undervalued throughout the field, but especially in the B-List groupings. This is primarily an A and B-List field this week. When I have laid off on the top salary competitor they have not won and in some weeks actually missed the cut. I have picked the winner in four of the last twelve weeks and many of my B-List and C-List picks are finishing in the top 5 to 10, including a win for Stewart Cink at the Safeway event and at least one competitor from these categories finishing in the top 5 every week. Beyond the obvious, pay attention to my free picks, combined with the more in-depth analysis exclusively for DFSExperts members and you could be cashing a three to six figure ticket. Join me on the members side and be enlightened.
A-List DFS Picks for the Masters: 2020
I consider the A-List category this week to be all players on the salary roster to be above $7,500 DK $9,000 FD. DFSExperts will add to the obvious statistical analysis, with deeper research and the eyeball test. These details and trends from the entire field are only possible to come from someone that is intimately familiar with competitive golf, that is willing to go beyond the numbers and reaches the depth and breadth of the competitor and person to be out in front of positive results.
Heading the A-List players this week are, Bryson DeChambeau ($11,200 DK $12,100 FD), Justin Thomas ($10,700 DK $11,600 FD), Jon Rahm ($10,500 DK $11,700 FD), Rory McIlroy ($10,200 DK $11,900 FD), and Dustin Johnson ($10,000 DK $11,800 FD). All of these competitors are strong throughout the ball striking stats relative to strokes gained, while McIlroy and Thomas lose strokes on the greens. However, both are such good ball strikers that they are capable of hitting it so well that they are capable of winning by hitting 14 plus greens in regulation per round, and by hitting it close to the pin so often, they just need to two putt the greens they are farther from the pin. Any one of these top five are appropriately priced and should be competitive for a win or top 5 to 10th place finish. I feel out of these five top salary players that Rahm, Johnson, McIlroy, and Thomas, in that order, are most likely to win this week. I will lay off of DeChambeau at this price to be able to roster another one to two more A-List players or two to three B-List competitors. I will also lay off Koepka in this category as well, due to sloppy conditions and possibly a 27 to 36-hole day expected on Friday, with a 100% chance of rain and thundershowers on Thursday, which could be problematic with his injured knee.
Farther down the A-List, I believe Xander Schauffele ($9,800 DK $11,500 FD) and Tony Finau ($8,800 DK $10,400 FD) are good values based on their recent form and favorable strokes gained strengths. Both are very strong in strokes gained stats with ball striking, putt well on bentgrass greens, have been in recent good form, and had top 5 finishes at the 2019 Masters.
B-List DFS Picks for the Masters: 2020
My B-List grouping ranges in salary from $6,500 to $7,400 in DK and $8,000 to $9,200 in FD. Abraham Ancer ($7,400 DK $9,200 FD), Cameron Smith ($7,300 DK $8,700 FD), Cameron Champ ($7,1000 DK $9,100 FD), Brandt Snedeker ($6,900 DK $8,600 FD) and Si Woo Kim ($6,800 DK $8,500 FD) all have consistent strokes gained on approach, have been in recent good form, and have experience and positive results at the Masters. With a hot putter, all have the potential to have a top 10 to 20 finish. I think there are many good three or four through six roster selections in this B-List grouping. Two fades I see in the B-List category are Billy Horschel ($7,200 DK $8,800 FD), and Marc Leishman ($6,900 DK $8,900 FD), who both have been consistently trending in the wrong direction in all strokes gained stats. Both have not been making cuts or in good recent form. However, both do have mixed results at the Masters, with top 20 finishes once in the last three years. I believe their recent poor form is more relevant to not having a good chance to make the cut or to have a top 20 finish this week.
C-List DFS Picks for the Masters: 2020
There are several good values and dark horses that can have some success this week in the C-List category, ranging in salary from $6,000 to $6,400 in DK and $7,000 to $7,400 in FD. Two excellent choices in the C-List category are Charles Howell III ($6,400 DK $7,700 FD), and Justin Harding ($6,300 DK $7,300 FD) who both have been making cuts and in reasonably good form, but both had positive results at the 2019 Masters. No-go’s in the C-List category this week are all players at $6,000 in DK and at $7,000 in FD. While some of these competitors are capable of making the cut, they are not capable of finishing in the top 20 to
help a six player GPP roster.
While these are a few teasers for this week, more in depth analysis and justification for my recommended lineup plays, or don’t play this week, are exclusively available for members of DFSExperts.com. Send us any fodder for the “Wall of Fame” including screenshots. We will put them up on social and proclaim you the DFS champion of the world. Good luck, and Golf On!
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