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NASCAR DFS Advice

DFS Picks For The Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway for October 18, 2020

DFS NASCAR
BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - JULY 15: Cole Custer, driver of the #41 HaasTooling.com/Fusion 360 Ford, drive during the NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on July 15, 2020 in Bristol, Tennessee. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

Chase Elliot was able to do it again this year at the Charlotte Roval. After winning the race last year, Elliot was able to show his road course prowess yet again in securing back to back wins at the Roval. Chase is proving himself a road course maestro. In future road course races Chase Elliotshould be someone to look at inserting into your lineup no matter the price. This win marked Elliot’s fourth straight road course victory. The win also clinched his spot into the three-race round of eight playoffs. On the day Elliot was tied for the most laps led (26) with his Hendrick Motorsport teammate William Byron. The top five behind Elliot were Joey LoganoErik JonesKurt Busch, and Ryan Blaney. Post-race the playoff standings were set for the round of eight with Kevin Harvick in first, followed by Denny HamlinBrad KeselowskiChase ElliotJoey LoganoMartin Truex JrAlex Bowman, and Kurt Busch. These eight drivers will now compete for their spot in the Championship Four race in Phoenix in a couple of weeks. 

Today’s free pick is going to be Cole Custer ($ 8,000 FD, $ DK). Custer has race at Kansas in the NASCAR Cup Series once in the Super Start Batteries 400 earlier this year. In that race he started 24th and finished seventh. It was an impressive showing for Custer in his rookie season. On the season Custer has raced well on intermediate tracks. So far this year he has finished on average 18.69 in races and started on average 22.6. In 13 races on Intermediate tracks he has a win at Kentucky, one top five finish and two top 10 finishes. I like Custer this week as he starts 13th and comes in at a good price on both sites. Custer represents value this week if you decide to pick one of the expensive playoff drivers. 

Starting at $5 per week subscribers can expect to find high value plays that are well priced on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have DFS Potential Dominators, DFS Place Differential Options and who to avoid for the upcoming Hollywood Casino 400.

Chase Elliot will take the pole after a dominant performance last week at Charlotte. The next two races return to mile and a half tracks with Kansas and Texas. Colder weather will change each teams’ strategies from the previous race at Kansas this year where Denny Hamlin left victorious. Hamlin also comes into Sunday’s race as back to back champion at Kansas Speedway, where he has been rather dominant of late on intermediate tracks. Hamlin will start this race in the seventh position. Now that we are in the round of eight, look for playoff drivers to be aggressive as they race for the chance to be in contention for the championship in Phoenix later this year. 

Potential Dominators

Kevin Harvick: Of all drivers to race at Kansas Speedway the last three years no one has led more laps at the track than Kevin Harvick ($ 13,200 FD, $ 10,400 DK). Since 2017 Harvick has led 315 laps. If you average that out, over seven races that is 45 laps per race. Depending on whether you play on DraftKings (0.25 points for laps led) or FanDuel (0.1 points for laps led) you are in a good spot to amass a lot of points with Harvick this weekend. To go along with his series leading laps led he has also amassed one win, three top five finishes, and five top 10 finishes since 2017. If you look at intermediate tracks, Harvick has dominated since 2017. He has led a series most 2,811 laps, has nine wins, 29 top five finishes, and 40 top ten finishes in 48 races. Harvick is expensive this week; his history shows however that he will be worth it. 

Martin Truex Jr: The second potential dominator for this weekends playoff race at Kansas Speedway is Martin Truex Jr ($ 12,500 FD, $ 11,000 DK). Truex since 2017 has a series best 5.29 average finish at Kansas Speedway. Coming into the Hollywood Casino 400 Truex has two wins, five top five finishes, and six top 10 finishes in seven races. In those seven races he led 285 laps. On the 2020 season Truex has had his ups and down, though in the past 15 races this year he has placed top five 10 times. Truex is ready to get his next win this year, considering he won 7 races last year. On intermediate tracks since 2017 Truex also has the best average finish with 7.23. He has won the most races on intermediate tracks with 10 and has the second most laps led with 2,327. 

Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr with start the race fourth and fifth respectively. 

DFS Place Differential Options

Tyler Reddick: Starting 15th this week is Tyler Reddick ($ 9,000 FD, $ 7,800 DK). Reddick in his rookie season this year has three top five finishes and nine top 10 finishes. In Reddick’s two career races at Kansas he has finished ninth and 13th. In those races he has an average start of 22nd and an average finish of 11th. Reddick has shown that starting track position is not an obstacle at Kansas. Reddick has seen the same success at intermediate tracks this year where he in 13 races has two top five finishes and six top 10 finishes. His best finish coming at Texas Motor Speedway earlier this year, finishing second. 

Kyle Busch: Starting 20th is a strange place for last years Cup Series Champion Kyle Busch ($ 11,200 FD, $ 9,900 DK). Busch has had a tough year; this being the first year since his rookie season that he does not have a win. The appeal this week with Kyle Busch is his 10.14 average finish at Kansas Speedway and 9.31 average finish at intermediate tracks since 2017. 

DFS Picks to Avoid

Ryan Blaney: In seven races at Kansas since 2017 Ryan Blaney ($ 11,400 FD, $ 9,700 DK) has an average start of 9.6 and an average finish of 17.71. In the Kansas Speedway race earlier, this year Blaney started fourth and finished 20th. At intermediate tracks Blaney has an average start of 10.7 and an average finish of 13.58. Intermediate tracks have not been terrible for Blaney, though he has not seen the same success he has had at other track lengths. 

MY TOP-FIVE OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Martin Truex Jr.
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Chase Elliot

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