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NASCAR DFS Advice

DFS Picks for The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway for October 25, 2020

Erik Jones NASCAR DFS
BROOKLYN, MICHIGAN - AUGUST 09: The #20 STANLEY Toyota, driven by Erik Jones, is pushed by the crew on the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Consumers Energy 400 at Michigan International Speedway on August 09, 2020 in Brooklyn, Michigan. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images/Pool via Icon Sportswire)

This past weekend the NASCAR Cup Series kicked off the Round of eight playoffs at Kansas Speedway. The Hollywood Casino 400 was the first of three races in this round. After this weekends race at Texas Motor Speedway and the following weekends race at Martinsville Speedway only four drivers will remain. The Hollywood Casino 400 was an action-packed race which concluded with the number 22 Team Penske Ford driver Joey Logano leaving victorious. Check out the race highlights here (https://youtu.be/ftSpARdpfeI). Logano over the race led 47 laps. His win Sunday was his third of the season and he is now locked into the Championship Four at Phoenix Raceway November Eighth. On the day Kevin Harvick was the runner up after leading a race high 85 laps. Currently the playoff standings have Logano in first, Harvick in second, Denny Hamlin in third, and Brad Keselowski in fourth. 

Today’s free pick for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 is Erik Jones ($10,700 FD, $8,900 DK). Jones has raced well at Texas Motor Speedway since the start of the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series season. In seven races Jones has an average starting position of 15.6 and an average finishing position of 8.57. Jones has showed that a later starting position is not a hurdle he cannot overcome at Texas. Jones will start in the 17th spot this weekend and will be in line for potential place differential points as well as potentially being able to get into the top 10. At Texas, Jones has three top five finishes, six top 10 finishes, and has led 110 laps. Jones this weekend could be a sneaky pick to win the whole thing after finishing fifth, 10th, fourth, fourth, and 10th in his last five races at Texas Motor Speedway. 

Starting at $5 per week subscribers can expect to find high value plays that are well priced on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have DFS Potential Dominators, DFS Place Differential Options and who to avoid for the upcoming Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.

NASCAR heads to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend where playoff implications are on the line. If the winning driver is a playoff driver, they will lock their spot in the final four. These circumstances could lead to playoff drivers being aggressive on the track, especially the ones below the cutoff line: Chase Elliot ($12,500 FD, $10,500 DK)Martin Truex Jr ($12,000 FD, $10,200 DK)Alex Bowman ($10,000 FD, $9,100 DK), and Kurt Busch ($10,500 FD, $8,500 DK). Not to give away some potential dominators for this race but playoff drivers Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin has recently dominated at Texas Motor Speedway. The two drivers have won four of the last six races. Harvick has won the last three fall races at Texas Motor Speedway and has a career best nine wins this season. Denny Hamlin won at Texas in the spring of 2019 and has seven wins this season. 

Potential Dominators

Kevin Harvick: I do not think this week’s race could have a stronger narrative then Kevin Harvick ($14,000 FD, $11,000 DK) being the absolute favourite to win this weekends race at Texas Motor Speedway. Harvick was awarded the Busch Light Pole Award for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. Starting first on a track where Harvick has eight wins and has won the last three fall races is a great example of all the odds being stacked in one driver’s favor. Since the start of 2017 Harvick has three wins, six top five finishes, and has finished top 10 in seven races in that time frame at Texas. Harvick also has a large lead in laps led over that timeframe with 538. Now I know that $14,000 FD, and $11,000 DK is expensive, but I do not think with how scoring is done in DFS that you can leave him out of your lineup. Harvick’s record on intermediate tracks is just as impressive where in 49 races since the start of the 2017 season he has nine wins, 30 top five finishes, 41 top 10 finishes and 2,896 laps led. Except for the wins category where Martin Truex Jr has 10, Harvick leads in all categories mentioned. I am so confident in Harvick this week that I am going to change pace a little and mention who I would look at this week that is cheap to compensate for Harvick’s price tag. Should you choose to insert Harvick into your lineup I would add John Hunter Nemechek ($5,500 FD, $6,300 DK) who in his two races at Texas has an average start of 28.5 and an average finish of 21.5. 

DFS Place Differential Options

Tyler Reddick: Starting in the 19th spot is right where Tyler Reddick ($9,200 FD, $7,900 DK) has a chance to gain serious place differential points for this weekends race at Texas Motor Speedway. In Reddick’s previous race this year at Texas he started in the 24th position and finished second. Reddick was extremely impressive earlier this year at Texas. Reddick has been very impressive in his rookie campaign with three top five finishes, nine top 10 finishes and 30 laps led. Five of his 30 laps led were at Texas Motor Speedway earlier in 2020. Tyler has also been showing great driving on intermediate tracks this year where he has two top five finishes and six top 10 finishes. His average start has been 19.9 and average finish has been 14.29 on intermediate tracks. Reddick comes in on the cheaper side for this race and could be a game changer for your lineup this weekend. 

DFS Picks to Avoid

Alex Bowman: Among playoff drivers remaining Alex Bowman ($10,000 FD, $9,100 DK) has been the least impressive at Texas Motor Speedway in recent years. In five races Bowman has an average start of 15 and an average finish of 19th. Intermediate tracks have not been friendly to Bowman so far in the 2020 season. In 2020 Bowman has an average starting position of eighth and an average finish of 14.14 at intermediate courses. In eight of 14 intermediate races this year Bowman has failed to finish in the top 10. In 11 of 14 races at intermediate tracks this year Bowman has failed to lead more then 10 laps. Bowman will start in the fifth spot on Sunday and I think is in store for a race where he will slide down the standings. 

MY TOP-FIVE OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Martin Truex Jr
  4. Chase Elliot
  5. Kyle Busch

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