Week one is less than a week away and as it approaches, we should start coming up with a gameplan of how are we going to set our lineups. Should I pay up at QB? Which Defense should I start? Where can I find value at Tight End? These are some of the questions we should be asking ourselves as the countdown to gametime is nearby.
As a DFS player myself, I’m only interested in 50/50’s and single-entry contests. My lineup against yours, and not 150 of someone’s. We want to stay away from the sharks out there with the larger bankrolls. We do not want to lock in any lineups just yet because of injuries and COVID Protocols that can arrive at any given moment, not to mention players being cut from their rosters. J K Dobbins suffered a season-ending knee injury in Baltimore’s final preseason game on Saturday. Cam Newton lost his starting quarterback job to rookie Mac Jones.
Let’s take a look at a few positions that catch my eye for the upcoming Sunday Main Late Swap 1 P.M. for Classic/Full Roster on DK and FanDuel. Already I see a ton of value for every position, but we will need to pay up for certain players too.
Mac Jones ($4,400DK/$6,200FD) (vs. MIA) Definitely should be considered as he’s been priced before the release of Cam Newton. In his three preseason games, Jones demonstrated poise and accuracy completing 36 of 52 passes for 389 yards and a touchdown. Miami’s defense pass defense has improved, but I still expect Jones to get in enough throwing to reach value easily at home.
Travis Kelce ($8,300DK/$8,500FD) (vs. CLE) is a must to pay up for on almost every game he suits up. The Veteran All-Pro dominates the tight end position, and next weekend he faces a few rookies and second year linebackers of the Browns. He’ll get plenty of targets and is bound to get into the endzone too, a plug and play at tight end for sure.
James Robinson ($6,400DK/$5,900FD) (@HOU) is at the top of the depth chart for Jacksonville’s running backs after teammate first round draft pick Travis Etienne suffered a season-ending foot injury during a preseason game. Robinson also led the backfield last season as an undrafted rookie rushing for over 1,000 yards, catching 49 balls for another 344 yards, and 10 total touchdowns in 14 games. He will see plenty of touches going up against the disheveled Houston Texans defense, who was last in the league in 2020 against the run.
Here’s a table of what this core build would start to look like in a Classic 50/50 NFL DFS lineup (using DraftKings Values)
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Sam Darnold ($5,000 DK/$6,500 FD) (vs. NYJ) is at home for week one against his former team The New York Jets. He will have plenty to prove on Sunday playing opposite his replacement Zach Wilson, mainly that he was not a bust. Carolina is loaded with weapons for Darnold, including former Jet teammate Robbie Anderson. New York allowed almost 30 points per game and 34 passing touchdowns last season, expect Sam to have his revenge.
Raheem Mostert ($5,800 DK/$6,100 FD) (@ DET) has the best matchup on paper going up against most likely the worst team in the NFL, especially against the run. Coming from a run-heavy offense, Mostert will be given plenty of touches against the Lions.
Jakobi Meyers ($5,100 DK/$5,400 FD) (vs. MIA) has seen a heavy volume of targets from the end of last year and spilling over into the preseason. The recently cut Cam Newton as well as the replacement New England rookie quarterback Mac Jones has taken a liking to. Meyers is a funnel for completions and will be heavily leaned on by the rookie. Last season against the Jets he caught 12 of 14 passes for 169 yards.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($4,100 DK/$5,300 FD) (vs. SEA) will see an increase this year in the passing game as well as some trick option routes, and with lead wideout T.Y. Hilton on IR, he will have even more of an increased role in the offense for the Colts. Pittman showed a glimpse in his rookie year of his promising talent last season, most notably in the AFC Divisional game against the Bills when he caught five of ten targets for 90 yards.
Flex (Value Plays)
Zach Ertz ($3,800 DK/$5,000 FD) (@ ATL) will still have plenty of opportunities to catch the ball even though fellow tight end Dallas Goedert has taken over the position in Phila while he has suffered a few injuries. The Eagles had lead the NFL in running 12-man personnel formations where a rejuvenated and healthy Ertz may receive plenty of targets, especially facing Atlanta, who are weak at linebacker.
Marquez Callaway ($3,400 DK/$5,200 FD) (vs. GB) has so far been the favorite wideout to newly named starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Calloway caught five passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter of the last preseason game against Jacksonville.
49ers ($4,200 DK/$5,000 FD) (@ DET) I know is the most expensive on the slate for this week, but with so much value at QB and WR, we can’t go wrong with one of the top defenses in the league facing one of the worst offenses in the league. Jared Goff is like a statue in the pocket, and has no one really viable to throw to.
Sunday DFS main slates as we know are loaded with games, 13 of them, so 26 teams to extract our lineups from. In order to find the games to pick players from, we should check Vegas’s over/under margins on totals. These game(s) are where we are going to look to invest in on. For instance, Browns @ Chiefs as of now are at o/u 53. Stacking Patrick Mahomes with Kelcewould be ideal. That would cost you a third of your budget though, so finding value elsewhere is a must. Or paying up for a stud RB in a game where there is a heavy favorite, like San Fran at Detroit (+7.5), Raheem Mostert is in a great spot. Inexpensive wide receivers, tight ends, and defenses allow us to build these types of lineups. Look for value where teams are suffering from injuries at the key positions, Michael Thomas will be out for the first half of the season due to injury for the Saints, Marquez Callaway is sitting pretty right about now.
Go and win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that
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