Finally, it is here! This is not something I say lightly. It has been seven months since we last had an NFL game to watch. Normally we at least have pre-season action to get us through August but this year we didn’t even have that. I can spend all day waxing poetic and talking about how exciting it is to have football back, but let’s not waste any more time. From a bankroll perspective you want to be smart here knowing that there is a long season ahead of us.
For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. It’s a quarterback league so why not start off your roster with one while also taking a slight pivot. Last season Deshaun Watson ($11,800 DK, $15,000 FD) only scored .4 points less on Draft Kings than Patrick Mahomes ($12,600 DK, $16,500 FD). We can expect a high scoring game on Thursday as the over/under is coming in at 54.5 points and with Kansas City being 9.5-point favorites Watson should be busy. These teams last met in the playoffs on the Chiefs’ way to the Super Bowl and despite the final result, Watson showed for at least part of the game, the ability to move the ball downfield against Kansas City. The added bonus of Watson’s running ability helps to add a few more points to his potential production.
Behind the paywall expect to find Thursday Week One NFL DFS Value Picks for quarterback, a good value running back as well as a CRAZY value running back (at least in DraftKings). We’ve got more love at tight end and elsewhere. Worth $5? Let us know.
Quarterback DFS Pick For 9/10/20
There are only two on this slate and we have already mentioned both of them. That is also by design as this is one of those weeks where I am working on fitting both into my lineup. Yes, it will be expensive but I have already worked out some combinations with both Mahomes and Watson where I feel comfortable. Of course this will mean that you will either have to take true chances elsewhere or ignore Travis Kelce ($9,200 FD, $13,500 FD) and Tyreek Hill ($10,400 DK, $13,000 FD). But with a lot of questions to be answered on both team’s offense in what will be a high scoring game, what better way to secure production than with the two players who will control that scoring.
Running Back DFS Picks For 9/10/20
Houston gave up a lot for David Johnson ($11,400 DK, $11,500 FD) and I would expect Bill O’Brien to be committed to proving himself right. Johnson really hasn’t been successful since he rushed for 1,239 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2016 while also catching 80 passes for 879 yards and four more touchdowns. In 2017 and 2019 Johnson did battle injury issues but all signs point to him being ready to roll for this season as a large part of Houston’s offense. A change of scenery should invigorate him.
Now it is time to pivot, save money, and take a bit of a chance. One of the players with most buzz surrounding them this season is rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD) as he rose to the ranks of being a first round pick in season long leagues. The rookie has looked great so far in training camp doing everything that was asked of him and Edwards-Helaire is also adept as both a rusher and receiver. Regular season action is different though and with Edwards-Helaire not exactly being a bargain, I’m looking to go in a different direction.
That direction brings us right to Darrel Williams ($1,800 DK, $6,000 FD). Williams is slated to be the backup to Edwards-Helaire and at this price, he is essentially a free square. Last season he didn’t make much of an impact carrying the ball 41 times for 141 yards and three touchdowns while catching 15 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown in a limited role. But Williams does have something Edwards-Helaire lacks; experience in Kansas City’s offense. Williams is versatile and can be counted as in short yardage situations, as receiver, and also as a blocker. He will have a role in Kansas City’s offense this week’s game, the question is just how much? But with the Chiefs being 9.5-point favorites we can expect there to be a lot of rushing opportunities in the second half.
Wide Receiver DFS Picks For 9/10/20
With an average of 18.9 yards per reception in his rookie season Mecole Hardman ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD) made his presence felt. Hardman caught 30 of his 47 targets for 567 yards and six touchdowns as he showed he can be a true big play threat with the ability to find the end zone. Overall things were up and down for Hardman but again he was a rookie receiver who has the talent to take the next steps this season.
Things are going to look quite different for Watson this season without longtime weapon DeAndre Hopkins and Brandin Cooks ($7,200 DK, $10,000 FD) is there to pick up the slack. While he can’t be expected to be a complete replacement, Cooks is taking his spot in the starting lineup. Early indications are that Cooks and Watson have developed a strong chemistry and we should look for that continue now that the season has started. With 42 receptions for 583 yards last year it was clearly a down year for Cooks but he does have a track record of success.
If we are looking at a deep threat who is touchdown dependent the expectation is that they will be cheaper than Will Fuller ($8,000 DK, $10,500 FD) is. Fuller is talented, but he is also injury prone and inconsistent at times. Despite catching 79 passes for 759 yards last season Fuller only caught three touchdown passes so there is increased risk about him being able to find the end zone. This has the potential to be a critical omission but there is risk involved from the highest priced Houston wide receiver.
Tight End DFS Picks For 9/10/20
This really goes without saying but Travis Kelce ($9,200 DK, $13,500 FD) is very good at football. You don’t catch 116 passes for 1,436 yards and nine touchdowns on accident and selecting Kelce all comes down to roster construction and what direction you want to go in.
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