Derrick Henry has been on fire for four weeks. Could this week be a slowdown for him? Find out here as we break down the winners and losers in DFS for Week 5!
Ezekiel Elliott – ($7,000 DK, $8,000 FD) – Zeke had his second week over 20 fantasy points last week and is starting to assert himself as the lead dog in the Cowboys offense. This week, the Cowboys get the New York Giants and their 26th worst run defense. We know this will be a shoot-out as most of these NFC East rival games are. Zeke when playing at home versus a bad defense has averaged 21.75 fantasy points per game and is 100 percent consistent. He’s a much better value than paying up for Henry (see below).
Derrick Henry – BEWARE – ($9,000 DK, $10,400 FD) – If you remember last week, Henry was our highest salary and top pick and he responded as expected against the lowly Jets. This week, he has a much tougher opponent in the Jaguars. They ranked 20th, which is an average defense. However Henry historically has not done that great when playing on the road versus an average defense. He’s averaged 15.13 fantasy points per game and is 67 percent consistent. That’s not terrible, but he’s definitely not worth paying $2,000 more in salary than Zeke.
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• You will see two players who we love but we are shading this week. We will explain exactly why and hope they still love us next week.
Best Value – RB – Leonard Fournette – ($5,200 DK, $6,400 FD) – Fournette has a 75% consistent rating so far in 2021 but with zero touchdowns. That’s more impressive then you realize. This week, he plays at home against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in giving up fantasy points to running backs. I’m expecting the Bucs to score at least one rushing touchdown with Fournette along with his usual 11-12 points per game to give him 17 or more points. He’s a great value this week.
Best Mid-Value – RB – Chuba Hubbard – ($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD) – I realize that Hubbard is a surprise here, but McCaffrey will be back soon, so let’s use him while his price is still reasonable. Hubbard gets the Eagles at home who rank 27th in giving up fantasy points so far this season to running backs. Hubbard is a nice value and should score 15+ points this week versus this defense.
Najee Harris – BEWARE – ($6,900 DK, $7,300 FD) – Harris is one of the top fantasy backs so far in 2021 as he is ranked fifth in total points and is 75 percent consistent. However, his one missed Clutch Game was in Week 1 when he played the tough Bills defense. This week, Harris gets the #1 defense in giving up the fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Broncos will be tough to run on and especially if Ben Roethlisberger is hurt and Mason Rudolph will have to start. I’d stay clear of Harris this week.
Overall, this week we are seeing some potentially huge values but a few people to stay away from that we normally give a full endorsement.
Bob Lung is a professional fantasy football writer who runs the fantasy football expo in Canton, Ohio every summer. He writes his Consistency Articles and also contributes to Dr. Roto’s new DFS site.
