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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Running Back Picks for Week 4

Alvin Kamara is a top DFS Pick
CHARLOTTE, NC - DECEMBER 29: New Orleans Saints Running Back Alvin Kamara (41) celebrates a touchdown during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints on December 29, 2019 at the Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC. (Photo by John McCreary/Icon Sportswire)

Depending on how you chose to complete your lineup, either two or three running backs are needed each week. The days of just one running back controlling the backfield are waning but not lost. Securing these running backs will generally prove to be more costly but it is necessary. When working with a salary cap, this can be a real problem. It is also why when a low-priced running back appears to have the role in hand, they generally end up being a highly popular selection. But are they worth it? 

That is a question to be answered on a case by case basis in the analysis that follows. The goal here is to look at game flow to ensure that touches will be at a maximum, it is a favorable situation against the opposing defense, and most of all that there is talent and expected fantasy success. 

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. Alvin Kamara ($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD) stands out for me this week at the top of the salary list. Now by no means should anyone expect to see Kamara catch 13 passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns like he did last week, but that does speak to his abilities and how well he is playing so far this season. As of Wednesday evening it remains unseen whether or not Michael Thomas will be taking the field for Week 4 as he is still limited in practice after missing the past two weeks with an ankle injury. Thomas’ absence last week was the cause of Kamara’s workload as a receiver but it’s not like his success came out of nowhere as he entered the week with 18 receptions for 146 yards. Last week Kamara carried the ball just six times but he gained 58 yards and for the season is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Lock and load with Kamara against a Detroit team that struggles against opposing running backs.  

Subscribers can now expect to get six more picks as we take a closer look at some more running backs at varying price points who deserve our attention this week along with a few from whom we should keep our distance. And not all will break the back either which will leave plenty of room for help at other positions. So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer.

One more week. That’s it with Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DK, $7,000 FD). If he doesn’t come through against Carolina on Sunday, I’m going to stop suggesting him. Drake had a favorable matchup against the Lions last week but he struggled gaining just 73 yards on 18 carries. On the season the Arizona running back has 54 carries for 319 yards and a touchdown as he is the clear ball carrier for the Cardinals. What we haven’t seen from Drake is much of anything in the receiving game as he has just five receptions for 20 yards. But we know that Drake is going to get the carries once again this week and the Panthers have allowed the second most points to opposing running backs so far this season, so let’s give it one more shot.  

Don’t look now but James Robinson ($6,500 DK, $6,600 FD) appears to be for real. Well at least for three weeks. Even in a game in which the Jaguars were blown out last week, Robinson still had a successful fantasy day with 11 carries for 46 yards and two touchdowns while also catching all six of his targets for 83 yards. That was by far the best receiving effort of the season for Robinson who now has 11 receptions on the season for 129 yards, but more importantly he has proven to be a dependable and capable ball carrier with 210 yards and three touchdowns. A week prior to the season we barely knew who Robinson was, and now he has played his way into our lineups and his success should continue against Cincinnati on Sunday in a favorable matchup.      

Through the first three weeks of the season Pittsburgh has proven to be a stout run defense. That was no different this past week as they limited David Johnson ($5,600 DK, $6,700 FD) to just 23 rushing yards on 13 carries. Johnson did find his way into the end zone so all wasn’t lost but fantasy owners were still left wanting more. That’s really not that much different than how the first two weeks of the season have gone for Johnson as he has just 134 rushing yards on 35 carries for the season, but matchups have not been kind to Houston thus far. Things will get better for Johnson and the Texans this week as the Vikings have allowed 100-yard rushing games in each of the last two weeks.   

Game flow is going to be Darrell Henderson’s ($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD) friend this week in a home game against the Giants in which the Rams are favored by double digits. After just seven carries last week I wouldn’t worry about Malcolm Brown as being a factor and Cam Akers didn’t practice on Wednesday and is still dealing with a rib injury. Henderson took advantage of the opportunity last week as it appears to be turning into his backfield and I would expect to see that continue after he carried the ball 20 times for 114 yards and a touchdown in Buffalo.   

Austin Ekeler ($7,100 DK, $6,900 FD) is going to cost you this week as one of the more expensive options on the slate, and I’m going to look in another direction. After catching just five passes in the first two weeks of the season, Ekeler turned things around last week with 11 receptions for 80 yards but consistency hasn’t been his friend so far this season. As a ball carrier, Ekeler does have 236 yards on 47 carries but we also have to contend with Joshua Kelley as a legitimate factor in the Chargers’ backfield as true competition. If I’m paying this much for a running back, I want the backfield to be his with less competition than Kelley offers. 

Another higher priced running back who I’m keeping my distance from this week is Nick Chubb($7,000 DK, $8,300 FD). We can’t argue with Chubb’s success this year, but DFS is very different from the season long game. Chubb is averaging 5.7 yards per carry through the first three weeks of the season with 292 rushing yards and four touchdowns but with just three receptions for 17 yards, he isn’t a factor in the passing game. Game flow isn’t going to work in Chubb’s favor this week as the Browns have a tough match-up against a Cowboys team that has been the fifth toughest against opposing running backs so far this season. 

So, what did you think?

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