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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Running Back Picks for Week 4 – 2021

Dalvin Cook DFS
SAINT PAUL, MN - NOVEMBER 22: Minnesota Vikings Running Back Dalvin Cook (33) breaks the plane at the end of this 1-yard run for a touchdown during the 1st quarter of a National Football League game between the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys on November 22, 2020, at US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

We are starting to see some consistent trends at the running back position, which can help you win some cash this week? Find out here as we break down the winners and losers in DFS for Week 4!

Derrick Henry – ($8,800 DK, $10,200 FD) – Henry is dominating the fantasy world right now at running back. This week should be no different. Henry is playing on the road this week but it’s against the lowly Jets defense, who rank 30th in giving up fantasy points to running backs. Henry has historically (to no one’s surprise) been amazing in these game scenarios by averaging 31.20 fantasy points per game and is 88 percent consistent. He is definitely worth paying up for this week.

Dalvin Cook – BEWARE –  ($8,100 DK, $9,500 FD) – The most important factor here with Cook is his health. Even if he is going to play, don’t forget that he’s playing against a very good Browns run defense. His past shows that he’s not very good at home versus a good defense. Cook has averaged only 10.06 fantasy points and 40 percent consistency. Even a healthy Cook may struggle here, I would pass.

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• You will see two players who we love but we are shading this week. We will explain exactly why and hope they still love us next week.

Best Value – RB – Elijah Mitchell ($5,400 DK, $5,600 FD) / Trey Sermon – ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD) – It currently looks like Mitchell will be back this week and be the main back, but I listed Sermon just in case he doesn’t play. In summary, play whomever is starting against the Seahawks run defense every week! The Seahawks are dead last in giving up fantasy points to the backs and it’s not even close! If the 49ers want to win this game, they need to run the ball early and often to keep Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense off the field. So, the one of these above starters will be a great value this week.

Best Mid-Value – RB – Jonathan Taylor – ($6,300 DK, $6,600 FD) – While there is a slight concern about Taylor’s health, it looks like he should start and play this week. I realize Taylor has not produced at the level we have expected, but this week should be his break out week. The Colts will travel to Miami and the 31st worst defense in giving up fantasy points to running backs. Taylor over the past two seasons has averaged 18.25 and is 75 percent consistent in that game scenario. He is certainly worth starting if he’s 100% healthy this week.   

Saquon Barkley – BEWARE –  ($6,700 DK, $6,900 FD) – Saquon has slowly been improving week after week so far this season, but this week, he could regress a little. The Giants are traveling to New Orleans and the #6 ranked run defense. Barkley has struggled historically when playing away versus a good defense. He has averaged 17.12 fantasy points per game and has been only 50 percent consistent. He’s not going to be in my DFS lineups this week.

Overall, this week we are seeing some potentially huge values but a few people to stay away from that we normally give a full endorsement. 

Bob Lung is a professional fantasy football writer who runs the fantasy football expo in Canton, Ohio every summer. He writes his Consistency Articles and also contributes to Dr. Roto’s new DFS site.

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