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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Running Back Picks for Week 16

David Montgomery DFS Running Back
CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 13: Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery (32) runs with the football battling Houston Texans outside linebacker Tyrell Adams (50) in action during a game between the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans on December 13, 2020, at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire)

Depending on how you chose to complete your lineup, either two or three running backs are needed each week. The days of just one running back controlling the backfield are waning but not lost. Securing these running backs will generally prove to be more costly but it is necessary. When working with a salary cap, this can be a real problem. It is also why when a low-priced running back appears to have the role in hand, they generally end up being a highly popular selection. But are they worth it? 

That is a question to be answered on a case by case basis in the analysis that follows. The goal here is to look at game flow to ensure that touches will be at a maximum, it is a favorable situation against the opposing defence, and most of all that there is talent and expected fantasy success. 

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. I am going to go back to the well with David Montgomery ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD) this week. The Bears are going to be facing the Jaguars who give up 4.6 yards per carry, which is good for 5th most in the league. The Jaguars’ defence is among the worst in the league, so you should take advantage of this matchup.

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Let’s kick things off with Miles Sanders ($7,000 DK, $7,300 FD). The Eagles are facing the worst rushing defence in the league this week in the Dallas Cowboys. This should lead to a nice workload for Sanders and there should be enough for both him and Jalen Hurts to both be effective on the ground. 100-yard rushing games have been rare for Sanders this year, but Sanders is also facing the Cowboys for the first time this year, so look for a big game.

Antonio Gibson ($6,600 DK, $6,600 FD) was a full participant in practice this week so he should be a go this week against the Panthers. Gibson when healthy has been a duel threat back regularly getting 20-25 touches per week. With the Panthers being among the weaker rushing defences in the league, this is a good matchup. There is also a chance that people look past Gibson because he didn’t play last week, which could keep his ownership levels down.

Darrell Henderson ($4,500 DK, $5,600 FD) with Cam Akers out this week, I expect the workload will shift back to Henderson as the lead back. With Henderson’s price, he will be seen as somewhat of a “free square” this week. The Seahawks’ defence has been among the best against the run, so use your “free square” at your own peril, as the Rams have been some erratic in recent weeks.

David Johnson ($6,100 DK, $6,700 FD) hasn’t been the most effective rusher this year(averaging less than 50 yards per game), but when you add his 27 yards on average receiving to his total, he starts to show some value. Last week, he was able to accumulate 106 yards receiving to go along with 27 yards on the ground. This week, the Texans will face a Bengals team that gives up 4.6 yards per carry, so I expect there to be a little more balance in Johnson’s numbers, but there should be plenty of room for him to have a sneaky good day.

Austin Ekler ($7,600 DK, $7,600 FD)  can be a wildcard on any given week, as his targets in the passing game can fluctuate from four targets to sixteen. If this is a week where Ekler sees around ten targets then he should have value in the DFS game, as his 25 touches should be enough to have him exceed 100 total yards, and with any luck provide you with a touchdown or two. The Broncos, who the Chargers face this week, also give up 4.8 yards per carry, so it is hard for me to not see Ekler being effective this week.

So, what did you think?

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