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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Recap for Week 4

Mark Andres DFS Picks
BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 28: A 22 frame composite high dynamic range (HDR) image prior to the Kansas City Chiefs game versus the Baltimore Ravens on September 28, 2020 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

Before we look forward, we must look back. The NFL season builds upon itself each week and offers up its share of highs and lows. This is on a cumulative basis but DFS gives us a fresh start each week. The key is to take everything as a learning experience while not overreacting in either direction. 

Each week we will take a look at both positive and negative situations that transpired from the week prior and what it means going forward. Let’s keep in mind that this is just the tip of the iceberg and throughout the week we will go into further detail about other players that deserve our attention for the coming slate of games. That is why you need to stick with us throughout the week.

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? As a preview of what you can expect, let’s take a look at Mark AndrewsI don’t want to make excuses for myself but I was both right and wrong on the Baltimore tight end heading into this week as I recommended fading him. With three catches for 57 yards, I would take that as a win but the fact that two of those receptions were touchdowns changes things. We are still left wanting more from Andrews but the fact that he was efficient does make it a productive fantasy day. The outcome of the game was never really in doubt so we would have expected to see more production out of the Baltimore running backs but that just didn’t happen. The fact that Lamar Jackson was the leading rusher with 53 yards on seven carries doesn’t bode well for them and it’s getting to that time where we can forget about Mark Ingram(eight carries for 34 yards and a touchdown) and J.K. Dobbins (five carries for 16 yards) for DFS purposes.    

Subscribers can now expect us to continue our trip around the league to take a closer look at some other players that stood out from a busy week of football. So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer.

It was unexpected but we aren’t complaining about the quarterback dual between Justin Herbertand Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. The rookie continues to impress as he is making it harder and harder for the Chargers to go back to Tyrod Taylor upon his return as he completed 20 of 25 passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns. It was hard to argue about just about anything we saw from the rookie on Sunday although he did throw an interception at a critical part of the game. Herbert also did without the help of a running game. Austin Ekeler left with an injury and while we thought that would have led to success for Joshua Kelley it just didn’t happen. The rookie gained just seven yards on nine carries and before we think about just plugging him in your lineup next week if Ekeler is sidelined, it should be noted that Kelley fumbled once again on Sunday. Across the field though, Brady looked even better as he is bursting onto the DFS radar after lighting up the scoreboard with 369 passing yards and five touchdowns. At this point it also safe to assume that there is chemistry between Brady and Mike Evans as he caught seven passes for 122 yards and a touchdown after briefly leaving the game with a knee injury. 

While there are certainly more exciting running backs than Chris Carson it is hard to argue with performance so far this season. Carson showed that there is nothing to worry about with his knee as he rushed for 80 yards on 16 carries while scoring two touchdowns. On the receiving side things were a lot more spread out with D.K. Metcalf setting the pace with four receptions for 106 yards while coming close to a touchdown. For the first three weeks of the season, fantasy owners really couldn’t make a bad choice between Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but that changed on Sunday as Lockett caught just two passes for 39 yards. Going forward this will be a situation to watch as instead of choosing wrong, it might be best left ignored from a DFS perspective.   

What else is new for Dalvin CookWe do need the running back to stay healthy but from a DFS perspective, who really cares as Alexander Mattison is a plug and play option if Cook sidelined. The Minnesota running back had another typical solid day as rushed for 130 yards while scoring two touchdowns in a Vikings’ victory. Houston came awful close to tying the game with what would have been a second touchdown reception of the game for Will Fuller who caught six passes for 108 yards while emerging as the go to receiver for the Texans.       

It was an efficient afternoon for Baker Mayfield as for the second straight week he led the Browns to victory. Despite Cleveland’s best efforts to let Dallas back into the game, the Browns were in control all afternoon. Dak Prescott had the best statistical day with 502 rushing yards and four touchdowns, and that is where the DFS emphasis should be, but Mayfield was 19 of 30 passing with 165 yards and two touchdowns. What caught our attention though was the fact that maybe Odell Beckham still has some DFS value. The receiver caught five passes 81 yards and two touchdowns while also coming up with a game icing 50-yard touchdown run. Going into next week we have to keep an eye on Nick Chubb’s knee injury and what that means for the Cleveland backfield going forward. Based on what we saw this week Kareem Hunt’s role might not change but he is still a valuable commodity with 11 carries for 71 yards and two touchdowns even though he wasn’t the leading rusher. That fell to D’Ernest Johnson who averaged 7.3 yards per carries while gaining 95 yards.       

There we are Joe MixonIn showing that we shouldn’t be giving up on the Cincinnati running back he crammed an entire season’s worth of production into one week. Mixon rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries while also adding 30 yards and another touchdown while catching six passes. And in case you were concerned, Joe Burrow did throw for 300 yards once again although he only threw for one touchdown pass as his DFS value is limited.  

That is it. We gave it one more chance but Kenyan Drake is off our DFS radar for the time being. In his defense Arizona was trailing all afternoon but Drake was essentially a non-factor in what should have been a good matchup for him. Drake carried the ball 13 times and gained just 35 yards while not receiving a target. On the opposite side of the ball Mike Davis continues to be a capable and competent option at running back for Carolina. Davis continued his solid production with 16 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown while catching five passes for another 27 yards.  

Alvin Kamara had a solid afternoon, but it could have been a lot better based on his performance last week. Kamara got a steady workload as a rusher carrying the ball 19 times while gaining 83 yards and scoring a touchdown but he was the victim of a vulture situation. That came in the form of Latavius Murray who picked up 64 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries in what was truly a team effort from the Saints. Kamara only caught three passes for 36 yards but I wouldn’t hold it against him moving forward nor would I put much stock in Murray repeating his performance from a DFS angle.    

While we can question the quality of their opponents, we can’t question the performance of Indianapolis’ defense. The Colts won without issue on Sunday against the Bears but Allen Robinsonowners certainly weren’t complaining. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see a clear chemistry between Nick Foles and Robinson as he caught seven passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. The other Chicago receiver to keep an eye on is Darnell Mooney who was targeted nine times and caught five passes for 52 yards. Across the field our interest in TY Hilton is pretty much non-existent at this point as he has struggled to get going this season and caught just three passes for 29 yards on Sunday.    

In a losing effort, Josh Jacobs looked mortal this week against Buffalo as he gained just 48 yards on 15 carries while catching three passes for 25 yards. I wouldn’t hold it against Jacobs moving forward as his struggles can be chalked up to the match-up. While he didn’t catch a touchdown pass this week it is clear that Stefon Diggs is the number one receiver in Buffalo. It was a light passing day (just 288 yards) but Diggs accounted for 115 of them via six receptions.  

Perhaps we just chalk Jared Goff up as being a game manager? The Rams quarterback completed 25 passes on Sunday but it was just for 200 yards and one touchdown as it was a quiet afternoon. Things would have been even quieter if Cooper Kupp didn’t come up with a 55-yard touchdown reception which accounted for the majority of his 69 receiving yards on the day. We are still left to choose between Kupp (23 receptions for 297 yards) and Robert Woods (19 receptions for 228 yards) each week it’s generally situation I avoid in DFS as it’s better to make no choice than the wrong one. 

With Dallas Goedert sidelined things looked quite enticing for Zach Ertz on Sunday. Instead the Philadelphia tight end caught just four passes for nine yards and we have to be skeptical moving forward. One tight end we don’t need to worry about is George Kittle as he caught 15 passes for 183 yards and a touchdown. 

Did we really need more drama and questions surrounding the New England running back situation? Well we certainly got it on Monday as Damien Harris returned from Injured Reserve and promptly carried the ball 17 times for 100 yards. Granted Sony Michel was sidelined but this is still a situation that we need to monitor before we invest from a DFS perspective. 

Talk about a performance that win someone a lot of money in a GPP. But should it really have come as a surprise? Robert Tonyan has now caught a touchdown for the third straight week but he certainly took things to the next level on Monday. Tonyan entered the week with seven receptions for 75 yards and then he promptly caught six passes for 98 yards and three touchdowns against an Atlanta team that we know struggles to defend just about anyone. All of a sudden, Tonyan is one of the better tight end options out there.  

So, what did you think?

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