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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Quarterback Picks for Week 9

Russell Wilson DFS Fantasy Pick
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 13: Russell Wilson (3) of the Seattle Seahawks barks out the signals during the NFL Week 1 game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks on September 13, 2020 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire)

You only start one quarterback so you better make it count. Quality and upside are important here while securing a solid floor. I know that sounds like a lot so let’s try and keep it simple. Look for a good matchup, a quarterback who has been performing well with a strong supporting cast, a defense that will be favorable to opposing signal callers, and a game script that supports success. For the most part, the quarterbacks at the top of the salary list speak for themselves as elite options, but here we dig deeper. Now that we got that out of the way, who fits that criteria for this week?  

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. Why not start off your roster with the potential 2020 MVP winner in Russell Wilson ($7,900 DK, $9,000 FD)? Through his first seven games of the season it’s hard to find any fault in Wilson’s performance as after throwing for four touchdowns last week against a tough San Francisco defense, he is up to 26 touchdowns so far this year. Wilson has also been careful with the ball throwing for just six interceptions while tallying 2,151 yards. It is clear that Wilson has a huge (both from the physical and talent perspectives) weapon in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett isn’t too bad either. There really is nothing not to like here and in case he needed any additional help, he doesn’t in case you were wondering, but Wilson has a great match-up this week against Buffalo.     

Subscribers can now expect to get six more picks as we take a closer look at some more quarterbacks at varying price points who deserve our attention this week along with a few from whom we should keep our distance. And not all will break the back either which will leave plenty of room for help at running back and wide receiver. So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer.

As far as the pecking board of interest in rookie quarterbacks goes Justin Herbert ($6,800 DK, $7,900 FD) has been coming in a distant third. But from a production standpoint Herbert has the edge and that is what makes him a prime DFS target. With 1,820 passing yards and 15 touchdowns his stat line for the season is behind the competition but upon closer inspection things look even more attractive in Herbert’s favor. Not only is it impressive to see the rookie with just five interceptions but he has thrown for a minimum of three touchdowns in each of his last four games while eclipsing the 300-yard mark in three of his six games. Herbert has shown no issues moving the ball and if anything he is getting even more comfortable under center. 

In the what have you done for me lately category, Drew Lock ($5,200 DK, $7,200 FD) is both a salary saving option and someone entering the week with positive momentum. Lock led Denver to a second half comeback last week where he threw for three touchdowns in what was his best performance of the season. It has been an uneven and injury plagued start to the season for Lock but there is still time for him to turn things around as he looks to build on last week’s victory. In Jerry Jeudy he has a dynamic weapon while Lock also showed chemistry with DaeSean Hamilton and connected with KJ HamlerDenver has a relatively young passing game but there are weapons to work with and Lock looks to exploit an Atlanta defense that has had its share of struggles so far this season. When it comes to Lock the bar is a lot lower than with an elite option such as Wilson and he gives you the ability to load up on talent elsewhere.

Derek Carr ($5,700 DK, $7,000 FD) is not an elite quarterback. In most seasonal leagues he is often found on your waiver wire or giving you uneasy feeling as a bye week or injury replacement. So why are we looking to target him in our DFS lineups? Well you know we need to be contrarian to take down those big GPP paydays, and at $2,200 less on Draft Kings than Wilson it leaves a lot of room for elite talent elsewhere with less risk than Lock. Yes you are losing, on average, about 12 Draft Kings points per game going from Carr to Wilson but that is an average and the Raiders do have a good match-up against the Chargers this week who have allowed the second most points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. That includes a lackluster effort last week against the Browns as Carr threw for just 112 yards and a touchdown in the first game since Week One where he failed to throw for multiple touchdowns. Through seven games Carr has 14 touchdown passes, against just two interceptions, and he is a capable option moving forward. 

Over the past few weeks we have seen Deshaun Watson’s ($7,100 DK, $8,300 FD) salary continue to rise, and for good reason as he has thrown for 11 touchdowns in his last four games. Watson has also thrown for at least 300 yards in each of those games and that high level of consistency is all you can ask for. The match-up against Jacksonville works in Watson’s favor and the security in his recent production makes him a nice fit for your lineup with an emphasis on cash games thanks to the predictability of performances.

The match-up works in Josh Allen’s ($7,000 DK, $8,200 FD) favor this week against Seattle but I am keeping my distance. Allen enters the week on the heels of his second straight game without a passing touchdown and if you remove his eight touchdowns over Weeks Two and Three, Allen is left with just eight touchdowns in his other six games. We can’t ignore Allen’s 228 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground but you don’t want to rely on your quarterback’s rushing ability. You also don’t want to be blinded by the 20 total touchdowns and 2,172 passing yards as consistency hasn’t worked in Allen’s favor so far this season and there are better options out there for the price despite the fact that Allen has a favorable defensive match-up.

You can’t talk about running quarterbacks while leaving out Lamar Jackson ($6,900 DK, $8,100 FD) but that is exactly what I plan to do in my DFS lineups. Jackson’s salary has had some serious regression over the past few weeks but that doesn’t mean you should be rushing to add him to your lineup. While Jackson did rush for 65 yards on Sunday he also lost two fumbles and relying on that production is not ideal at the quarterback position. If we remove Jackson’s 275 yards and three touchdowns to begin the season then things get pretty bleak for him to the tune of 1,063 yards and nine touchdowns in six games through the air.  I know it’s not fair to include Jackson as strictly a passer because so much of his value does come on the ground but with just two touchdowns, we are really just banking on yardage here. Again I know the price is enticing but the goal here is to make you think and it could be considered a trap. 

So, what did you think?

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