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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Quarterback Picks for Week 15

Jarred Goff DFS
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 23: Jared Goff (16) of the Rams spins away from Jason Pierre-Paul (90) of the Bucs during the regular season game between the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 23, 2020 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

You only start one quarterback so you better make it count. Quality and upside are important here while securing a solid floor. I know that sounds like a lot so let’s try and keep it simple. Look for a good matchup, a quarterback who has been performing well with a strong supporting cast, a defense that will be favorable to opposing signal callers, and a game script that supports success. For the most part, the quarterbacks at the top of the salary list speak for themselves as elite options, but here we dig deeper. Now that we got that out of the way, who fits that criteria for this week?  

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. Based on points allowed to opposing quarterbacks so far this season things don’t necessarily look appealing for Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK, $8,900 FD) as the most expensive option on the slate. But if there is any quarterback who could be match-up proof against a tough New Orleans defense it would be Mahomes. The Kansas City offense is clearly built around their quarterback with his prolific skill set and there is no shortage of weapons for him in the passing game either. In what you could consider an “off” game for Mahomes last week in Miami he still put up 25 Draft Kings points thanks to 393 passing yards as he recovered from a slow start. A surprising turn of events saw Mahomes throw just two touchdown passes while getting picked off three times. On the season Mahomes is still quite efficient though with 33 touchdown passes compared to just five interceptions and it is clear he is a class above the competition; at a minimum. 

Subscribers can now expect to get six more picks as we take a closer look at some more quarterbacks at varying price points who deserve our attention this week along with a few from whom we should keep our distance. This includes a budget friendly option who is just $5,000 on Draft Kings who can help you stack the rest of your GPP squad. This is just the beginning though. For a one-time fee of $99 per year we have all sports covered here including NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, PGA, NASCAR, and League of Legends. We know how profitable these picks can be so you can even try it out for one month for free. 

Path of least resistance. As we enter Week 15 it really should just be common sense and the obvious play at this point but how can we ignore Jared Goff ($6,300 DK, $7,800 FD) against the Jets on Sunday? To say that New York is in disarray with more injuries than we can count and a new defensive coordinator would be an understatement and Goff is a capable beneficiary. Entering last week we saw Goff eclipse the 300-yard passing mark in four of his last five games but that came to a crashing halt against New England in a blowout victory. All that was required of Goff was 137 passing yards and a touchdown but we have seen what he is capable of. There is the concern of a negative game script once again for Goff against the Jets but he shouldn’t need much time to return a positive return on your investment and he is a relatively safe option as there is essentially no possibility for a bust here. That is unless I just placed a jinx on the Jets chances at the first overall pick after giving up 40-plus points to Seattle last week.

It isn’t going to get cheaper than Alex Smith ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD) for this week and he allows you ultimate roster flexibility. Smith did exit last week’s game early but the Washington quarterback was suffering from just general muscle soreness and would have been able to re-enter the game if needed. In what we could call five “full” games so far this season Smith has thrown for just four touchdown passes, and no more than one per game, but the law of averages says that has to change right? Seattle has their struggles against opposing quarterbacks so far this season but a lot of that is due to their offense’s success at jumping out to quick leads which leads to empty production. Smith has eclipsed the 300-yard mark twice this season and I’m looking for that to happen a third time this week in a game that shockingly means something for Washington. 

For all that we have said about the Philadelphia Eagles and their struggles this season it was hard not to get excited about what transpired this past Sunday against a tough Saints team. The Eagles made the switch to rookie Jalen Hurts ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD) and after an upset victory the selection of him in the second round of this year’s draft suddenly doesn’t look as troubling. It doesn’t look like much but Hurts did have some success through the air against a tough opponent as he threw for 167 yards and a touchdown. More importantly there is real value here on the ground as Hurts carried the ball 18 times for 106 yards. I’m not sure we can count on 106 rushing yards each week from the rookie but this was a solid preview of the type of production we can expect from him. Things should also get easier for him this week against Arizona.

Did you really think I was going to forget Tom Brady ($6,600 DK, $7,900 FD)? And against the Falcons no less? Tampa Bay was victorious last week coming off their bye week but Brady wasn’t exactly sharp in the first half as things could have gone more smoothly with some missed throws in the mix. Ultimately Brady threw for 196 yards and two touchdown passes while spreading around the targets and attempting just 23 passes. At this point in the season I would expect everything to be running smoothly for Tampa Bay but it’s hard to argue with the overall numbers of 3,496 passing yards and 30 touchdown passes. This is the type of game that could allow Brady to turn back the clock and really pad those numbers.

I have nothing against Ryan Tannehill ($6,700 DK, $7,700 FD) other than Derrick HenryThe Tennessee running back is simply too good and controls too much of the Titans offense which therefore limits Tannehill’s upside. In what was a favorable match-up for him last week against Jacksonville, Tannehill’s production was limited to 212 passing yards and two touchdowns. The outcome of the game was never in doubt and he did exactly what was asked of him but there is limited upside. Tannehill is averaging just over two touchdown passes per game (28 through 13 games) but Henry limits his ceiling and the quarterback doesn’t exactly come cheap either.

Don’t expect a shootout in Tampa Bay this week, at least a two-sided one. We have been burned on a few occasions by Matt Ryan ($5,400 DK, $7,400 FD) this week in situations that appeared to be favorable for the Falcons’ quarterback and his price reflects those struggles. At this point part of the caution is not to be blinded by the price and fooled into thinking you are getting a bargain. Last week’s effort from Ryan consisted of just 224 passing yards and one touchdown while we saw him revert back to bad habits in crunch time which led to three interceptions. Tampa Bay has had success against opposing quarterbacks so far this season and Ryan should be no different. 

So, what did you think?

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