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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Quarterback Picks for Week 12

Joe Flacco DFS pick
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - OCTOBER 27: Denver Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco (5) throws down the middle during the NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts on October 27, 2019 at Lucas Oil Stadium, in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)

You only start one quarterback so you better make it count. Quality and upside are important here while securing a solid floor. I know that sounds like a lot so let’s try and keep it simple. Look for a good matchup, a quarterback who has been performing well with a strong supporting cast, a defense that will be favorable to opposing signal callers, and a game script that supports success. For the most part, the quarterbacks at the top of the salary list speak for themselves as elite options, but here we dig deeper. Now that we got that out of the way, who fits that criteria for this week?  

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. Once the Jets got their act together in the second half last week Joe Flaccoactually showed the ability to move the ball downfield against the Chargers defense. This week things will get even tougher for one of the worst passing defenses in the league as they face Josh Allen ($7,600 DK, $8,600 FD) coming off Buffalo’s bye week. Generally we like to avoid west coast teams on the road playing in the early game and that is the Chargers this week. Allen is up to 2,871 passing yards through 10 games on the season as he is averaging just shy of 300 yards per game with 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions. As a passer alone Allen is one of the better options this week and factoring in his 279 rushing yards and five touchdowns puts him over the top. 

Subscribers can now expect to get six more picks as we take a closer look at some more quarterbacks at varying price points who deserve our attention this week along with a few from whom we should keep our distance. And not all will break the back either which will leave plenty of room for help at running back and wide receiver. So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer.

Just because we don’t trust the Chargers defense it doesn’t mean we can’t lean on their rookie quarterback. Last week Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK, $8,400 FD) continued his strong rookie season with 366 passing yards and three touchdowns. The plan was never to start Herbert from day one, but after Tyrod Taylor’s freak injury prior to the second game of the season the rookie stepped in and showed no intentions of giving the job back. Through the first nine games of his career Herbert is averaging 300 passing yards per game despite his 187-yard effort two weeks ago. With Herbert we aren’t getting the typical rookie mistakes as he has just six interceptions on the season along with 20 of his 22 touchdowns coming over his last seven games. Buffalo has also struggled against opposing quarterbacks so far this year and going against Allen, we will likely have a shootout on our hands.

Turnovers have been a legitimate problem for Daniel Jones ($5,500 DK, $7,200 FD) but in his last two games heading into the bye week the Giants’ quarterback didn’t throw an interception. Granted he only threw one touchdown pass in that stretch but New York did win both games. With 384 rushing yards on the season Jones has given a boost to his DFS production but he clearly needs to increase his eight touchdown passes on the season to bring things to next level. The expectation is that the Giants used the bye week to make further offensive adjustments and Jones has success to build on in a favorable matchup against Cincinnati. To be clear this is a GPP option only if you are looking to save some salary cap space at the quarterback position. 

Matt Ryan ($5,900 DK, $7,600 FD) never really had a chance last week against the Saints as to say he was pressured all afternoon would be an understatement. Ryan was sacked eight times while also being hit an additional 11 times so it shouldn’t have been surprising that he threw for just 232 yards and no touchdowns. Things haven’t gone according to plan for the Falcons so far this season but through 10 games Ryan has 2,978 passing yards while averaging 319 yards in his four games prior to last week. It would be nice to see him increase his touchdown total of 15, but at this price he’s also hard to avoid. Ryan’s match-up gets a lot better this week against the Raiders as he is a solid value play.

If anyone is going to be match-up proof it is Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD). While per Draft Kings the Buccaneers have allowed the least points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, there isn’t enough here to scare me off the Kansas City signal caller. Mahomes is averaging over 300 passing yards per game with 3,035 yards on the season and 27 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Each week he makes plays that are simply unexpected and last week against the Raiders was no different as threw for 348 yards and two touchdowns. Game script shouldn’t be a problem as Mahomes will have to take it to the air to keep up Tom Brady and he certainly is up to the task.

Taysom Hill’s ($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD) debut as a starting quarterback wasn’t really remarkable from a passing perspective (18 completions for 233 yards and no touchdowns) as I have some real questions about his ability as a downfield passer. DFS players certainly thought different, especially if they started Hill at tight end, as he rushed for 51 yards and two touchdowns. While we know that Hill will be featured in the rushing game each week it wouldn’t be a prudent strategy to bank on the rushing touchdowns. This is especially true as Hill has yet to prove he can be trusted as a starting quarterback and his price doesn’t do him any favors either.

The inclination is that targeting the Jets’ defense is always the easy and obvious play. I mean they are still looking for their first victory and to say their secondary is anonymous and inexperienced might be one of the biggest understatements of the season. There is no sense in even listing out the personnel as they simply are that unknown. Under that guise Tua Tagovailoa ($5,900 DK, $6,800 FD) should be a great play this week, but I will be staying away. The rookie has yet to throw for more than 248 yards and two touchdowns so far this season and ineffectiveness led him to being benched last week in Denver. Prior to his departure Tagovaliloa threw for just 83 yards and while I wouldn’t expect to see him pulled in two consecutive weeks, I do have some doubts about his upside and the focus in Miami is on winning. We shouldn’t roll with Tagovaliloa strictly based on the opponent. 

So, what did you think?

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