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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Quarterback Picks for Week 11

Big Ben DFS Pick
BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 01: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) drops back to pass during the Pittsburgh Steelers game versus the Baltimore Ravens on November 1, 2020 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

You only start one quarterback so you better make it count. Quality and upside are important here while securing a solid floor. I know that sounds like a lot so let’s try and keep it simple. Look for a good matchup, a quarterback who has been performing well with a strong supporting cast, a defense that will be favorable to opposing signal callers, and a game script that supports success. For the most part, the quarterbacks at the top of the salary list speak for themselves as elite options, but here we dig deeper. Now that we got that out of the way, who fits that criteria for this week?  

For those who have yet to subscribe, what are you waiting for? Until then you will get one free pick to whet your appetite. Last week the Jaguars allowed 325 passing yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort against Green Bay as they continue to show that they are a defense to target. This week Ben Roethlisberger ($6,700 DK, $8,000 FD) is the beneficiary which makes him a prime option. After not practicing all week due to COVID-19 related concerns all Roethlisberger did was have his best performance of the season with 333 passing yards and four touchdowns. We can’t overstate the volume and abundance of Pittsburgh’s receiving options and Roethlisberger is having one of his best years of his career with 2,267 passing yards and 22 touchdowns (against just four interceptions) through the first nine games of 2020. 

Subscribers can now expect to get six more picks as we take a closer look at some more quarterbacks at varying price points who deserve our attention this week along with a few from whom we should keep our distance. And not all will break the back either which will leave plenty of room for help at running back and wide receiver. So, keep on going and take a look at what we have to offer.

Not only is Alex Smith’s ($5,300 DK, $6,600 FD) return and resurgence remarkable from a human-interest point of view but he isn’t doing such a bad job at quarterback either. All Smith has done is eclipse the 300-yard mark in consecutive weeks and last week he threw for 390 yards in a valiant near comeback against Detroit. After all this time it was a career high passing day for Smith but the problem is that he didn’t throw for a touchdown pass following just one two weeks ago. Smith is spreading the ball around to a variety of weapons both in short yardage and down field and we can’t discount the value Terry McLaurin brings either so I think it is safe to assume that Smith will find the end zone this week against the Bengals. 

Let’s play the bargain game this week and go with another capable, but underpriced, veteran in Andy Dalton ($5,300 DK, $6,900 FD). It hasn’t exactly been the smoothest of seasons for Dalton as he only got one full game in after taking over for Dak Prescott after the latter’s season ending injury. I’m not expecting great things from Dalton but he was a Pro Bowl quarterback who had success in Cincinnati and the Cowboys do have a plethora of offensive weapons at the skill positions. In the one full game he played Dalton threw for 266 yards and a touchdown but he has had some time to get healthy and acclimated to his new role following the bye week. The expectation is that Dallas has made some adjustments as their offensive performance to this point has been underwhelming. Believe or not, even with just two wins, the Cowboys aren’t out of it for the division and they do have a solid match-up against Minnesota.

Part of me truly feels weird suggesting it but Cam Newton ($6,200 DK, $7,600 FD) is one of the better options for this week. Opposing quarterbacks have had DFS success against Houston so far in 2020 and I would expect that to continue for Newton this week. New England’s offense is not focusing on Newton the passer as last week he attempted just 17 passes. Granted weather was an issue on Sunday against a tough Baltimore defense but Newton did complete 13 passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. Of greater importance was his 11 carries for 21 yards and his ninth rushing touchdown of the season. At this point Newton’s rushing production has become so consistent that we can count on it each week which helps to make up for the 192 passing yards he is averaging each week. I have to concede though that three passing touchdowns along with seven interceptions is far from ideal but he is still averaging 20 Draft Kings points per week so here we are.

Another option at the quarterback position who is averaging roughly 20 Draft Kings points per week but leaves something to be desired on the eye test is Carson Wentz ($5,700 DK, $7,400 FD). Wentz has a solid match-up this week against the Browns in what will be Philadelphia’s second week back after their bye week and also with a full complement of his offensive weapons. Wentz is a little better off than Newton in the passing game as he is averaging 232 yards per game with 12 touchdowns but he has also thrown 12 interceptions through nine games. His five rushing touchdowns do help to make things a little better but it is not something we can count on each week. What we are banking on here is a general improvement in the Eagles’ offense this week as the supporting cast is there but more importantly the price is right.

There is a reason why the best Jameis Winston ($5,900 DK, $7,200 FD) was able to do this off-season was sign a contract to backup Drew Brees in New Orleans. This week Winston is elevated to the starting lineup and we should temper our expectations. Winston wasn’t really needed last week as he completed just six of 10 passes for 63 yards in the second half and while the Saints are facing the Falcons this week, we can’t expect him to light up the scoreboard. In general the New Orleans offense, especially Michael Thomas, has been underwhelming this season and that should carry through to Winston’s performance this week. The other fact we need to consider is that while Winston might be named the starter, Taysom Hill will also have a role.

Aaron Rodgers ($7,000 DK, $9,000 FD) is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and that certainly rings true this season with 2,578 yards and 26 touchdowns with just three interceptions. We can’t dispute his success or consistency but for me this is based on his price and the rough match-up against a strong Indianapolis defense that has their share of success so far this season. 

So, what did you think?

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