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NFL Football DFS Advice

DFS NFL Quarterback Picks for Week 1 – 2021

Mahomes and Brady
TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 29: Tom Brady (12) of the Buccaneers shakes hands with Patrick Mahomes (15) of the Chiefs after the regular season game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 29, 2020 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

FINALLY! The NFL is back this coming weekend and we are ready to win you some money in DFS this week and every week this season! So, let’s get started. 

Yes, Patrick Mahomes ($8,100 DK, $8,800 FD) is the obvious choice this week since he’s playing at home versus a Browns defense that was 25th last season against the pass. Mahomes is 100 percent perfectly consistent against Bottom 10 defenses, whether it’s home or away. What I have for you is more contrarian options (and why they are potentially good picks) that might allow you some more budget to invest in other places. 

Justin Herbert – BEWARE – ($6,700 DK, $7,600 FD) is certainly one of those quarterbacks that will certainly be a weekly recommendation. But not this week. Neither Herbert nor any of the starters played a single down in the preseason and will travel across the country and battle one of the toughest defenses in the NFL in the Washington Football Team. I would stay very far away from the Chargers as a whole this week, but particularly Herbert.   

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• You will see players who we love but we are shading this week. We will explain exactly why and hope they still love us next week.

Best Value QB – Sam Darnold ($5,000 DK, $6,500 FD) Anytime there are “revenge” games, you have to take a look at it. Darnold’s first game as the Carolina Panthers’ quarterback is versus his former New York Jets. It’s at home and the Jets have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this year. Darnold has never been very consistent, but at home versus a Bottom 10 defense, he’s averaged 23.27 FPG and is 67 percent consistent. That’s a great value!

Best Mid-Value QB – Matt Ryan ($6,000 DK, $7,300 FD) – While Matt Ryan hasn’t been as consistent over the couple of seasons as a fantasy quarterback, he certainly has some game scenarios where he has. One of the them in playing at home versus an average defense (defenses ranked 11-22 in fantasy points given up). Over the past three years, he has been 86% consistent and has averaged 24.67 fantasy points per game. In Week 1, he plays the Philadelphia Eagles at home. This should be a high scoring affair and I would expect Ryan to easily match or exceed those numbers, which makes him an excellent mid-value quarterback.

BEWARE – QB – Josh Allen ($7,400 DK, $8,100 FD) – Allen is certainly going to be a Top Five quarterback this season! However, he has a very difficult start to the 2021 season as he takes on the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. The Steelers ended last year as one of the best defenses against the pass in the NFL. So, before you get too excited about starting Allen this week, let me share that Allen’s consistency at home versus a Top 10 defense is only 40 percent and he’s only averaged 19.30 fantasy points per game in those 10 games over the past three season.

Overall, this week we are seeing some potentially huge values but a few people to stay away from that we normally give a full endorsement. Week One is going to be a little more tricky but with some careful consideration to these great values above,  you are going to be in great shape.

Bob Lung is a professional fantasy football writer who runs the fantasy football expo in Canton, Ohio every summer. He writes his Consistency Articles and also contributes to Dr. Roto’s new DFS site.

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