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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for September 4, 2021

Jose Abreu
BALTIMORE, MD - JULY 09: Chicago White Sox First base Jose Abreu (79) hits a ball during a game between the Chicago White Sox and the Baltimore Orioles on July 9, 2021 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by John McCreary/Icon Sportswire)

We have an eight-game main slate on DraftKings today with the first pitch at 7:10 PM EST. The highest implied run totals are in Coors Field for the Atlanta Braves (5.6) and Colorado Rockies (5.4) game, but we can look at a couple other teams for offensive value and variance. The Chicago White Sox (4.9) and Los Angeles Angels (4.7) are in great spots and provide nice pivots in GPP tournaments.

There’s some heavy rain in the forecast for Tigers-Reds in Cincinnati, so we’re taking this game out of the MLB DFS player pool for tonight’s DraftKings contests.

Here is a selection of today’s Core Players 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 9/04/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherFramber Valdez $10,000
 Pitcher   
 Catcher   
 First BaseJose Abreu $5,200
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short Stop   
 OutfieldLuis Robert $4,700
 OutfieldJustin Upton $2,500
 OutfieldAndrew Vaughn $2,800
  
  

Framber Valdez – P  ($10,000) – There are no safe options on tonight’s volatile DFS slate, but Valdez offers the best floor with moderate upside. His 2.91/3.48 ERA/FIP are second-best on the slate after Joe Musgrove, who’s on the other side of this matchup in San Diego – one that features 3.75 implied totals for both teams. The Houston Astros lineup just doesn’t strike out like normal human beings, so Valdez, who has excellent splits against LHB (.278 wOBA, 30 percent K rate), appears to be the slightly better play. If he can navigate past Fernando Tatis, Jr., and some of the better Padres righties, Valdez should have a much easier time with the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup.

Jose Abreu – 1B  ($5,200) – The anchor to this potent White Sox lineup, Abreu is the piece we’re most interested in spending up for on a slate filled with high-price hitters. He sports a .400 wOBA vs. LHP, and while Royals RHP Daniel Lynch (.365 wOBA vs. RHB in 2021) has pitched well in recent outings, his 4.88 xFIP isn’t exactly inspiring enough for us to get off the White Sox righties. Those guys just feast on fastballs, which Lynch throws about 40 percent of the time. The rest of the DFS infield positions can be mixed and matched depending on stacks and your value preferences, but we should lock down the first base slot with this former MVP.

Luis Robert – OF ($4,700) – One of baseball’s most exciting young players, Robert returned from injury on August 9 and has given us a .364/.402/.636 slash line in those 18 games. While it’s a small sample, he’s greatly improved his approach against LHP and offers excellent value at the top of the White Sox order. His K rate is just 21.4 percent in the leadoff spot and he’s followed by a host of sluggers who help boost his DFS value.

Andrew Vaughn – OF ($2,800) – Talk about value! Vaughn’s .427 wOBA vs. LHP is enough to get us talking at just about any price point, but the DraftKings pricing algorithm just keeps getting it wrong with him, as he costs a measly $2,800 in a prime matchup tonight. He’s another OF we can lock in and help save on salary for the infield spots or more expensive stacks.

Justin Upton – OF ($2,500) – Upton is just way too cheap for what he offers against LHP: seven HR, 41 RBI, .270 ISO, .360 wOBA in 81 AB vs. LHP in 2021. The DraftKings pricing algorithm got this one wrong, and we’re taking full advantage of it and locking him into our last OF slot for our core.

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• Read our strategy on how to build well-designed lineups around a core hot hitters that allows you to spend big.
• See our list of three players to avoid this week and WHY…   

The Pitchers

Joe Musgrove ($9.700) – On the other side of the HOU-SDP game is Musgrove, whose upside is clipped a bit considering the Astros low team K rate (19.6 percent), but the veteran righty is still worth considering for GPP plays. This is one of the uglier SP player pools for DFS that we’ve seen in a while, but Musgrove’s most recent performances (44.3 DK points @LAA on 8/27 and 25.9 DK points vs. PHI on 8/21) have been excellent – if not dominant.

Reynaldo Lopez ($6,300) – With so much uncertainty in our SP options, we can look at Lopez for some GPP value at this more-than-fair price and not worry so much about the range of outcomes. Pitching is a true guessing game tonight, and Lopez offers some viable risk-reward (and strikeout) upside on a slate filled with question marks. With the rotation hurting and a lot being asked of the Sox bullpen, the right-hander should go 5 IP just needs to get us around 10-15 DK points to make value. The matchup is a good one, and we believe Tony La Russa will give him a little longer leash than usual tonight.

Julio Urias ($9,700) – We don’t like the matchup against the Giants, but Urias could be an option in both cash games and GPPs, especially considering his most recent game logs, He’s faced the Giants four times and has given up a slew of outcomes, the most recent two being decent with 17.2 and 21.4 DK points (one ER, five Ks in each) but absent of wins. 

The Value Players

Max Stassi – C ($3,000) – If the power-hitting Stassi gets the start, he’ll be a great value play at just $3,000, and if he’s supplanted by Kurt Suzuki ($2,500), we can pivot there. Ideally, we’d slot White Sox C Yasmani Grandal ($5,400) into this space, but if you need the salary savings, whomever starts among Stassi/Suzuki makes for a fine option at catcher.

David Fletcher – 2B ($3,200) – This Angels team is in an excellent spot tonight against LHP gas can Kolby Allard, and Fletcher at or near the top of the lineup at this price is just too valuable to ignore. He offers stolen base upside (14 SB on the season) and sports a .383 wOBA and .364/.402/.481 slash line vs. LHP.

Phil Gosselin – 3B  ($2,800) – He’s a platoon player who’s been getting regular playing time lately, and he’s scored 9 or more DK points in four of his last five games (11-9-12-0-15). The best part is that this sub-$3K player has been hitting third in the Angels lineup. Giddyup!

The Stacks

Chicago White Sox – We’re starting our builds with Abreu, Robert, Vaughn and Grandal, and you can add in the expensive but powerful Eloy Jimenez ($5,000) if you want the full five-man stack. Jimenez doesn’t have the best splits against LHP, but he’s worth adding to stacks considering Lynch could get the early pull.

Los Angeles Angels – The value plays have been laid out in the previous blurbs, but any Angels stack should obviously begin with Shohei Ohtani, despite the massive and generally prohibitive salary ($6,300). Fletcher, Gosselin, Upton round out four man builds, with Jo Adell ($2,600) making sense as a fifth man since Allard also faces the possibility of an early hook. The Angels are almost all very cheap and they have monster upside tonight.

Coors Field (Atlanta Braves/Colorado Rockies) – You shouldn’t be all-in on the Coors Field game tonight, mainly because the starting pitchers are both capable of shutting down the opposing offense (German Marquez has been especially brilliant pitching at home this season, to the tune of a .265 wOBA). While we recommend steering clear in cash gams, it’s not a terrible idea to get some exposure in a few low-price GPPs. Fitting in a few big Rockies bats, including the red-hot Charlie Blackmon and more-than-solid Brendan Rodgers, could pay off big.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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