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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 5, 2021

Xander Bogaerts
ARLINGTON, TX - MAY 02: Boston Red Sox Shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) during God Bless America during the baseball game between the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox on May 2nd, 2021, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. (Photo by Aric Becker/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve got an 11-game slate for Wednesday. Pitching is interesting up top today, as Shane Bieber and Yu Darvish are the studs but they both face teams who don’t strike out that often. Right below those two are Walker Buehler and Freddy Peralta. Buehler faces a team that strikes out a lot but also has a ton of power. Plus, he’s scored fewer than 20 DKFP in four of six starts. Peralta is expensive but the matchup is a good one. I honed in on the bats fairly quickly. There are six teams projected for fewer than four runs (DET, NYM, STL, CLE, KC, and PIT). There is one team projected for at least five runs (BOS). There is one team projected for fewer than three runs (PIT). The TB/LAA, LAD/CHC,and TEX/MIN games haven’t had their game totals released as of the time of this writing. 


Possible light showers in Boston but it doesn’t look like anything too concerning.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/5/21 (using DraftKings Values)

PitcherAndrew Heaney$8,200
Pitcher
CatcherChristian Vazquez$4,200
First BaseJosh Naylor$3,300
Second Base
Third Base
Short StopXander Bogaerts$5,200
OutfieldFranchy Cordero$2,300
Outfield
Outfield

Salary Remaining $200

Andrew Heaney ($8,200)

I wish Heaney was cheaper but he was the guy that immediately jumped out to me. The swinging strike rate is 14.8 percent, FIP is 3.69, and he’s struck out 34 batters in 24 innings. The Rays are 2nd in strikeouts and 22nd in ISO against left-handed pitching. There is some risk, as he’s produced fewer than 10 DKFP twice, but he’s also gone over 30 in two games.

Christian Vazquez ($4,200)

We are attacking Casey Mize and the Tigers bullpen. Mize has a 9.1 swinging strike rate and 5.51 FIP. He’s allowed five home runs and walked 10 batters in 26.2 innings. The Tigers bullpen has the highest FIP in MLB. Vazquez has two home runs and three stolen bases on the season. Don’t rely on the stolen bases but it does provide another path to fantasy goodies. He only strikes out 18.1 percent of the time and will likely bat sixth in the order.

Josh Naylor ($3,300)

Naylor was the last piece to the puzzle. He will likely bat sixth in the Indians lineup and faces Brady Singer, who has pitched well but has a career 4.64 FIP against lefties. Naylor hit his first home run of the season two games ago and has a career .147 ISO against right-handed pitching. The Royals bullpen has the eighth-highest FIP. 

Xander Bogaerts ($5,200)

Casey Mize is much worse against lefties, but he still serves it up to righties. Bogaerts is one of the best hitters in the league. The slash is .349/.384/.585 and he has five home runs with two stolen bases. He bats clean up for the Red Sox and we are stacking against the Tigers pitching. 

Franchy Cordero ($2,300)

Cordero has been brutal to start the season. The strikeout rate is 41.9 percent and the slash is .158/.213/.193. He is also buried in the nine-hole. That said, he’s super cheap and the matchup doesn’t get much better than this. He has a career .178 ISO against right-handed pitching. 

N

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• Full lineup support for the 50-50 lineup above
• A more risky full lineup for a GPP.
 • A number of alternative picks that you mix in for some variations on your core lineups.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/5/21 (using DraftKings Values)

PitcherAndrew Heaney$8,200
PitcherFreddy Peralta$9,500
CatcherChristian Vazquez$4,200
First BaseJosh Naylor$3,300
Second BaseCesar Hernandez$3,900
Third BaseRafael Devers$5,300
Short StopXander Bogaerts$5,200
OutfieldFranchy Cordero$2,300
OutfieldEddie Rosario$3,700
OutfieldAlex Verdugo$4,200

Salary Remaining $200

Freddy Peralta ($9,500)

Peralta has a 14.7 percent swinging strike rate. The FIP is 3.00 and he’s struck out 45 batters in 28 innings. He has walked 14 batters, though, and the BABIP and LOB numbers show that he’s had good fortune. That said, the Phillies are 9th in strikeouts and 24th in ISO, and that’s with Bryce Harper in the lineup. Harper is likely to be out again as he’s dealing with a wrist injury. Peralta has also been much better on the road this season. Granted, the sample size is small.

Cesar Hernandez ($3,900)

I initially had Rougned Odor here but he suffered an injury last night, so Hernandez it is. He’s not sexy, as the ISO is .092, but he bats lead off and has excellent plate discipline numbers. The BABIP is only .221 so some good fortune should be in the works.

Rafael Devers ($5,300)

Lefties against Mize today, and Devers is one of the best in the game. He has seven home runs and a stolen base on the season. The ISO is .283 while the walk rate is 11.4 percent and strikeout rate is 21.9 percent.

Eddie Rosario ($3,700)

Rosario bats clean up for the Indians. I wasn’t looking to attack Brady Singer but he can be had and the Royals bullpen isn’t great. On the season, Rosario has three home runs and five stolen bases. 

Alex Verdugo ($4,200)

Lefties against Mize. Verdugo bats second in the Red Sox lineup and is an important piece of this stack. He has three home runs and two stolen bases with an impressive .306/.369/.490 slash and .184 ISO. In his career, he has a .189 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Alternative Moves…

Avisail Garcia – OF ($3,000 DK) – Chase Anderson has slight reverse splits over his career. He’s allowed 1.62 HR/9 against righties compared to 1.18 for lefties. The batting average is .275 versus righties and .223 against lefties. Garcia has three home runs and three stolen bases on the season. Against right-handed pitching in his career, he has a respectable .260 average and .147 ISO. 

Shane Bieber – P ($10,400 DK)

I keep going back and forth between paying up for Bieber or staying with Peralta. Both paths look good to me but, for now, I’m taking the savings. That said, Bieber is a beast. The FIP is 2.5 and the swinging strike rate is 19.1 percent. He hasn’t scored below 25 DKFP in six starts and has a high of 43.3.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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