DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 4, 2021

We’ve got a 12-game slate for Tuesday. The lineup construction was pretty straight forward. There are three top pitchers who stand out but I can’t go with Jacob deGrom due to weather concerns and Trevor Bauer is playing a double header. As for bats, I have a stack but I’m not crazy about it. We shall see how it goes. There are four teams projected for fewer than four runs (NYM, STL, TEX, and MIL). There are zero teams projected for at least five runs. There is one team projected for fewer than three runs (STL). The DET/BOS, LAD/CHC, and PIT/SD games haven’t had their game totals released as of the time of this writing. 

                 
Weather could be a factor in the NYM/STL games. Sniff sniff. No deGrom as a result.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/4/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Aaron Nola ($10,400)

As much as I’d love to play deGrom, I’m good with rostering Nola. The FIP is 2.63 and the swinging strike rate is at 11.9 percent. He’s only allowed three home runs and five walks in 37.2 innings. The Brewers are 5^th in strikeouts and 19^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. They did get Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain back, so the risk is elevated slightly, but they were a horrible hitting team with those two in the lineup earlier in the season.

Salvador Perez ($5,000)

We are attacking the lefty Sam Hentges with all the Royals righties today. He’s pitched 5.2 innings and allowed three home runs, all to righties. The FIP is 7.88 while the swinging strike rate is 9.7 percent. Perez has six home runs on the season and a career .190 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Carlos Santana ($5,200)

Santana has more power from the left side but the ISO is still a respectable .176 from the right side. The plate disciple and batting average are better from that side of the plate as well. Santana bats in the heart of the Royals lineup so I want him in the stack.

Amed Rosario ($3,700)

Rosario was the last piece of the puzzle. He has two home runs on the season, the walk rate is 9 percent, and the strikeout rate is 17.9 percent. The BABIP is only .236 and, in his career, he has a .171 ISO against lefties. Mike Minor has a 5.33 FIP and is much more successful against lefties than righties.

Jorge Soler ($5,200)

Royals righty stack attack. Soler strikes out a ton. He’s at 29.4 percent this season and that number has been above 30 percent multiple times. The power is prodigious, though, as he clubbed 48 home runs two seasons ago. He has a career .212 ISO against lefties.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/4/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Justin Dunn ($7,700)

Dunn is the only “cheap” pitcher I feel comfortable with. And I’m scared. His FIP is 5.03, swinging strike rate is only 8.1 percent, he’s allowed 13 walks in 20.1 innings, and the BABIP is only .200 so he’s due for some bad luck. That said, he limited a potent Astros and Red Sox offense to three and two runs respectively, on the road. He faced the Orioles three games ago in Baltimore and allowed one earned run while striking out six in five innings. Now Dunn is at home and the Orioles are 10^thin strikeouts and 23^rd in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Whit Merrifield ($5,200)

Merrifield bats lead off and we are stacking against Hentges. Merrifield’s plate discipline numbers are comical, as the walk rate is 6 percent while the strikeout rate is only 9.5 percent. He’s clubbed three home runs and stolen eight bases, so there are multiple paths to fantasy goodies. The slash is .269/.310/.413 and the BABIP is a low .266.

Hunter Dozier ($3,300)

The final piece to our Royals stack. Dozier will likely bat sixth in the batting order for Kansas City. The strikeout rate is 29.6 percent but the BABIP is only .167 so good fortune should come sooner than later. He has three home runs and one stolen base on the season. In his career, he has a .174 ISO against left-handed pitching. 

Yadiel Hernandez ($3,200)

This is predicated on the health and availability of Bryce Harper. He’s missed the last three games due to a wrist injury and it sounds like he needs a few more days off. Hernandez has filled in and he will likely bat third in the order. So far, in 36 plate appearances, he has one home run and two stolen bases. The walk rate is 11.1 percent while the strikeout rate is only 19.4 percent. The BABIP is .435 so regression is in store but the cost and lineup placement is too much to ignore.

Joc Pederson ($2,800)

He’s back after missing time and will likely bat leadoff. Joc strikes out a lot but when he connects, it’s sayonara. Against right-handed pitching in his career, the ISO is .228 compared to .133 against lefties. Trevor Bauer is an excellent pitcher and will probably strike him out four times, but he has given up seven home runs on the season so….cue up the Lloyd Christmas.

Alternative Moves…

Robbie Grossman – OF ($3,200 DK) – Grossman has two home runs and four stolen bases on the season. The slash is a disgusting, dare I say Grossman, .196/.348/.293. He does walk 17.4 percent of the time and can score points on the base paths so that’s good. Nick Pivetta has walked 17 batters in 25.2 innings.

Michael Fulmer – P ($6,300 DK)      

Like I said, I don’t like the cheap options today. If I’m going down, though, I’d probably roll with Fulmer, but this is only for GPPs. There will probably be plenty of stacks targeting Fulmer and the Tigers pitching staff. So why Fulmer? He’s added 2 mph on the fastball and the swinging strike rate is 13.7 percent. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.